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DV2009 how CN Generated? Number is so big

B

benji731

Registered Users (C)
Hi,

I am DV 2009 winner as of AS 23xxx ~ Thanks God.
However, while I am doing research for "high rank number",
I have found the number has already overflowed more than 100K (selectee)

Largest number i saw so far
EU25xxx
AS28000
AF60000

If we sum together, it is already over 113K which overflowed the 100K selectee that NL mentioned ~~
Also, remember, KCC is still mailing NL until July , so we might see even bigger number such as AS 30000 , AF70000 or so ~~

What is happened?
Anyone can break this point?

Please advise
THANKS!
JI
 
I saw another post that AF region has over AF70000 ~
Can someone read this post and try to discuss this issue?

THANKS
 
I would be very interested in that as well actually. I'm a DV2008 winner but my number is extremly high (AF56XXX) and with 2 months to go I do not think it will get current. However I'd like to know the logic behind the exceptionally high numbers
 
Yes, however, there is nobody response it yet...........
I have heard the AF number could be 70K and AS could be AS30000 or more

No idea how it could be generated, if they say only 100K people selected

JI
 
benji731 said:
however, there is nobody response it yet....
Click to expand...

There is NO RESPONSE because nobody on this forum works for KCC.

In any case, why bother trying to figure it out :confused: it is a lottery, and just because u get selected does not mean u will get the final green-card???

It is like asking "why does the lottery ticket sell soooooo many tickets when there is only going to be 1 big-money winners?"....you are all wasting your time with this question.

If you have a valid question, then people will answer...otherwise, this thread will be ignored.

CAN the moderator kill this thread please?
 
I don't mind the host kill this post, but everyone has their own thought and own question. **Yes, this is a lottery game, but we just want to know how the game play ~~Anyhow, thanks for your response and comments. *** If anyone doesn't like this topic and subject, simply not replying and no response. This post will be underwater very soon ~ ** THANKS FOR ATTENTION and have a good day! JI
 
I think this is a very legitimate and interesting thread. As NL receivers, we all are winners. Therefore, it definitely is our concern if the CN are too high because our odds of getting the visa depends on this number.
Initially, I was thinking that my CN is quite high (AS12XXX). But may be not if CN for AS has gone above 30K. May be KCC will process cases quickier than in previous years. May be the CNs are generated randomly????( I doubt!) or may be they are not generated in series...???
 
p1rulz said:
I think this is a very legitimate and interesting thread. As NL receivers, we all are winners. Therefore, it definitely is our concern if the CN are too high because our odds of getting the visa depends on this number.
Initially, I was thinking that my CN is quite high (AS12XXX). But may be not if CN for AS has gone above 30K. May be KCC will process cases quickier than in previous years. May be the CNs are generated randomly????( I doubt!) or may be they are not generated in series...???
Click to expand...


I have posted extensively on this issue. If you search for posts by me back last year you will see the various conclusions that I drew in relation to case numbers.

I put a lot of work into these posts so have a look over them:

http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=252301
http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=253124

We don’t know if each and every case number is an actual case number. For example the numbers could be in batches:

CN 1 -500 then
CN 1000 – 1400
CN 2000 – 2600

My point is that if you have a case number like AS30000 then we just don’t know if there are 29,999 other people behind you. There may not be, if the numbers are issued in batches then using the case number as an indication of the number of winners is a flawed activity, we just don’t know.

Having a high case number in its self does not mean that you will not get a GC. There are many other things to consider. There were also 10 million applicants for the DV this year, I don’t have a link to back this up but I did hear it some where.

We don’t know the formula used to select applicants either. You just have to accept your CN and hope that it will become current.
You will all also have to worry about any axing of the DV lottery, it came VERY VERY close to being abolished last year:

http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=250033

It was really touch and go, it came down to final votes in the senate. I learnt loads about US politics during this period last year!

The general consensus is that even if the DV was axed this year they would most likely let DV2009 play out. I am just pointing out that people may want to keep an eye on politics over the next while.

A high case number is a long road, but I am a testament to a high case number getting an interview so don’t lose hope.
 
they say only 100K people selected
Click to expand...
Do you know you could count them all yourself? All per country data has been published. Add those numbers for each region. And then the regions
 
Very interesting question (to me anyway). On one of the threads we had an interesting discussion about it. And as alemitmee said, they probably have gaps in the numbers. Also, something to keep in mind is that - if you look at the USCIS and DoS statistics published on their websites, the number of actual DV immigrants that immigrate to the US is far less than one would imagine. In 2006 (or 2007 if I remember right) they selected 99K people but there were only 42K TOTAL DV based LPRs admitted that fiscal year. TOTAL being the key word here, means final head count. That includes both AOS and CP principle applicants, their spouses and kids. Which means the number of actual selectees (priniciple applicants) that actually become LPRs is fairly low. (My $0.02).

source:
U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2007, KELLY JEFFERYS AND RANDALL MONGER, (2008)
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/LPR_FR_2007.pdf
 
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As I said before, it could be as follow:

cn: 00001 Asia (First winner from Asia)
cn: 00002 Africa
cn: 00003 Europe
cn: 00004 Asia (2nd winner from Asia)

And so on ....

therefore, your case number possibly could be between 1 to 100k regardless of your continent.
 
pluto74 said:
As I said before, it could be as follow:

cn: 00001 Asia (First winner from Asia)
cn: 00002 Africa
cn: 00003 Europe
cn: 00004 Asia (2nd winner from Asia)

And so on ....

therefore, your case number possibly could be between 1 to 100k regardless of your continent.
Click to expand...

Hi Pluto,
I also heard that it is like that. Till June 2008 in Asia Region, the case number
for DV2009 is more than 40k.I think it will more than that until the end of Notification send-out. So maybe your conclusion is true.
If we count other way:
AS: >40k
EU: >40K
AF: >40K
OC, NA and SA: >40K
So the total is 160k >100k :)
 
dematra said:
Very interesting question (to me anyway). On one of the threads we had an interesting discussion about it. And as alemitmee said, they probably have gaps in the numbers. Also, something to keep in mind is that - if you look at the USCIS and DoS statistics published on their websites, the number of actual DV immigrants that immigrate to the US is far less than one would imagine. In 2006 (or 2007 if I remember right) they selected 99K people but there were only 42K TOTAL DV based LPRs admitted that fiscal year. TOTAL being the key word here, means final head count. That includes both AOS and CP principle applicants, their spouses and kids. Which means the number of actual selectees (priniciple applicants) that actually become LPRs is fairly low. (My $0.02).

source:
U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2007, KELLY JEFFERYS AND RANDALL MONGER, (2008)
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/LPR_FR_2007.pdf
Click to expand...

Some excellent points here. It is so Difficult to try and second guess this whole system. I have pointed out in the past that the case number assignment process is some what of a black box operation.
We use the term black box in IT to describe a third party system or process that you have to work with but that you are not privy with the inner workings of, and don’t need to know either. All you need know about the black box process is that something goes in one end (the DV applicants) and that something comes out the other end (the Case numbers) if that makes sense.

It is crazy that there is typically a shortfall of 10,000 or so in the amount of DV visas issued every year from the quota of 50,000. This must be for many reasons that would take ages to list.
 
It is crazy that there is typically a shortfall of 10,000 or so in the amount of DV visas issued every year from the quota of 50,000.
Click to expand...
There is no shortfall. The data provided was for those who actually become permanent residents. The quotas are for visas and AOS's only. If the person gets a visa but does not enter US, this is not a shortfall.
 
About the black box situation. Close to that. We do not know that much. Mostly all we know is just a few words.

After the end of the registration period, a computer will randomly select entries from among all the entries received for each geographic region. Within each region, the first entry randomly selected will be the first case registered, the second entry selected the second registration, etc. All entries received during the registration period will have an equal chance of being selected within each region.
Click to expand...
It very well could the the registrations are not assigned consecutive numbers. But other than numbering, the selection process is described well enough to understand it.
 
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Hi everybody,

I got my NL yesterday but the date on the letter is 6 May 2008! My case number is 2009AS00017xxx. Is there any chance for me?

I am filling out the DS-230 and DSP-122 at the moment. Is the Rank Order number is the same as Case Number?Shall I download the forms online and fill them in computer and then print them in A4 size paper? Any help would be appreciated.

Many thanks
 
alemitmee,
You've made lots of great points there.
But I don't think it is fair to say that the DV program came close to being cancelled last year. The "comprehenssive immigration reform" bill that would have cancelled the DV program generated a lot of opposition and many senators were ready to filibuster it. It needed 60 (out of a total of 100) votes to move forward, but in the final vote only 46 senators favored it. It was 14 votes short.
Also, it was clear that there was much greater opposition to the comprehenssive immigration reform bill in the house of representitives. Even if the senate narrowly passed the bill, there was no guarantee that the house of representitives would have also pass it. The senate actually did pass an immigration bill containing an amnesty the year earlier (in 2006) and it went nowhere because the house of representitives refused to even consider it. In fact, the house had just passed a bill aimed at cracking down on illegal immigration very harshly.
Not many like the DV program all that much and the reason the comprehenssive immigration reform bill failed was because of the issue of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants.
Efforts to pass bills that end the DV program without dealing with other immigration issued seem to fail because some want to keep it as a bargaining chip. They see ending DV as something that can be offered in return for getting an immigration amnesty passed.


alemitmee said:
I


It was really touch and go, it came down to final votes in the senate. I learnt loads about US politics during this period last year!

The general consensus is that even if the DV was axed this year they would most likely let DV2009 play out. I am just pointing out that people may want to keep an eye on politics over the next while.

A high case number is a long road, but I am a testament to a high case number getting an interview so don’t lose hope.
Click to expand...
 
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Hello,

I'm among the DV 2009 winners and my CN seems high. I'm from Ethiopia and this number was current around July on the previous years, except for last year (DV 2008) on which case my number is not yet current.

Any one with any idea why the cut off numbers of some countries (Like Nigeria and Ethiopia) is posted separately? What does that mean?

Thank you and good luck to all

_________________________________________
CN is 2009AF00023***
NL dated - 16 April 08
NL received at postal office - 05 May 08
Replied on - 16 May 08
DHL notified delivery of mail to KCC on 22 May 08
 
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