yes asd 22 as I mentioned before about dv-cutt-off numbers for europe in my previous posts...on average only 69 to 70 percent of the winners from europe end up getting interview to be selected statistically.so this year the cutt-off number will stop somewhere between 18.400 to 18.900
I appreciate that every on this forum is constantly trying to second guess the DV and visa numbers (me included) but I have to say I disagree with your posts. After extensive research into to DV I have realised that there far too many variables involved to make this kind of sweeping conclusion. It is a generally accepted fact that many from the EU don’t tend to peruse their visa applications, in comparison to say AS or AF regions. this can help to explain the lower EU numbers. Most of the EU countries have fantastic social and economic conditions, just like the US and people from many of those countries have a real choice, and some decided that its just not worth the hassle of moving to the US after all, why move from family and friends and good jobs? When you can have a just as good a live in your home country.
Also there are a few countries in the EU region, not in the actual European union that have very high applicant numbers, UZBEKISTAN 3,101 TURKEY 2,188 ALBANIA 2,862. These three countries alone make up 1/3 of total EU applicants. These countries can only get a certain amount of visas and while they are all below the 3500 visa threshold allowed, it is likely that the visa numbers will get tied up in these countries quickly, This situation will distort the EU numbers some what. When you take out these countries you are left with about 16000 applicants, and it is likely that many of them may not bother to purse there visa’s. even if 20% did not, we would be down to 13000 applicants and don’t forget that not every one who applies and gets interviewed will be successful either. You could probably take out another 10/15% again leaving the actual numbers very different from what they may have seemed at first.
You also have to take into account that numbers may be current, but countries just may not have the time or resources to schedule interviews for everyone, or may not have enough numbers to go around for all people current. Some embassies may be quicker then others at processing too.
Anyway my general point is that your post above is a far to simplistic view of the DV and there are many more things to consider if you are to make a balanced opinion.
.I doubt it will make it closer to 20.000 number
You may be right, but you are really just guessing, no one knows and if this is based on your percentage analysis then it is a flawed statement based on another inaccurate statistical guess
As I pointed out already. there is no one out there having more than 16022 number out there for dv2007 interview. So your theory is correct...
This is only one forum and most of what gets posted on here is taken at face value, no way of proving it, I could just as easily say I know some one that has a CN higher then this and who could ever prove me right or wrong?. There are 40-50 thousand people involved in the DV2007 yet we only see posts on here from a few hundred people at the very most. Just because no one has posted a successful CN above 16022 is hardly conclusive evidence that there is not one, use your head!!
You are of course entitled to your opinion and this is a discussion forum, but if you are going to make such concrete statements you should have concrete evidence to back them up. Time of course time will tell but I for one believe that CN’s will all go current again this year for all regions, apart from some individual countries that may reach there quotas during the fiscal year.
2006 I could say was not so good year for EU, since they have issued only 15625 which is far away from the average 19000-20000, while the other regions seems are within average.around 22000 people have been selected from EU for DV2006 which is less than this year.
When you think about it 15625 out of 22000 is about 70% when you take into account the people who did not qualify (say 15% ) and the people that did not want to peruse (say 15%), this is probably about right although there were not that many visas issued I am sure the majority of people from the EU who wanted a visa had a chance at getting one. You have to look at the bigger picture its not just about the amount of visas issued its about lots of things.
With out access to the kind of statistics that KCC would have all our theorising is just that... "theorising". If I manage to get a visa for DV 2008, with my high CN then we will see once and for all that High CN’s can get you a visa in the end just as a low one can.
