DV 2020 All Selectees

#41
You have a chance to get your green card. Go to AOS topic and read previous posts. People have got their green card in USA with pending asylum years before.
thank you for your reply. I really hope,that theres some miracle way to proceed with dv in my case. So far I read only ,that its not possible,since I was out of status for a long time,but now Im pending asylum.tricky situation. still I will try to find as many ideas as possible,since asylum takes forever.
 
#42
For what I understand, if you are illegally in US, the'll deny your visa. Someone correct me if I'm wrong please.

That is a very low number, which is good.
thank you for your reply.yes,thats what I keep reading so far. even If Im pending asylum,its still not clear status.But who know,maybe miracles happen.
I just wonder if I still would try,all they can say is NO and I will continue to proceed with my asylum.
 
#45
Thank you for your reply.

I think I have not been clear...my fault. I was asking for the absolute highest CN (Case number) known of each year
This is, the highest CN that somebody had but he/she was not called for an interview because it was too high.

Obviously it's impossible to know which number it was, but if 100 people posted here their number, we can assume that number to be pretty close to the highest of those 100 numbers.

With this, we could see if the years with larger absolute highest CN tend to issue more visas, or not.
 
#46
I have been selected with CN 2020AF33xxx, can someone tell me if it is a high number?
I read the tab in the stat link posted previously, can someone help me to understand how to read the tab?
Based on my CN, I assume AF means Africa so I need to look at this tab, then what does mean 39500 in the cell C14?
 
#47
Thank you for your reply.

I think I have not been clear...my fault. I was asking for the absolute highest CN (Case number) known of each year
This is, the highest CN that somebody had but he/she was not called for an interview because it was too high.

Obviously it's impossible to know which number it was, but if 100 people posted here their number, we can assume that number to be pretty close to the highest of those 100 numbers.

With this, we could see if the years with larger absolute highest CN tend to issue more visas, or not.
Isn’t that what the data about the number of selectees for each region shows? Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that if, for example, 12345 people were selected for Europe, it means the highest CN for that region was EU12345. But again, I’m not sure if that’s how they allocate the CNs.

You can also find the cut off from the visa bulletin. People whose CN were higher than the numbers listed for each region in the September 2018 visa bulletin were definitely unable to officially start the process and obtain an interview.
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#48
Isn’t that what the data about the number of selectees for each region shows? Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that if, for example, 12345 people were selected for Europe, it means the highest CN for that region was EU12345. But again, I’m not sure if that’s how they allocate the CNs.

You can also find the cut off from the visa bulletin. People whose CN were higher than the numbers listed for each region in the September 2018 visa bulletin were definitely unable to officially start the process and obtain an interview.
Not quite. A CN can have more than one person attached to it, and some CNs are void - disqualified after selection.
 
#51
Gotcha, I misunderstood the "A CN can have more than one person attached to it" part. I didn't realize that derivatives also counted as part of the total selectees and thought only the principal applicant counted.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#52
Hello everybody! It's me again. I was selected (again) with an even worse number than before... but it is great to be here in this journey with you guys!
SA27XX
Vero!! You have the knack of getting selected!

About numbers. There are going to be some high numbers thrown around - and people will make all sorts of assumptions without knowing enough to do so. Your case number is not the point, it's a question of how many holes there are in front of your number. More holes = more chances. But we won't know much more until we see the selectee count. For SA we will be able to immediately calculate the approximate number of holes - then you will know. I expect the selectee counts to be published in a VB in a month or two - so until then, keep safe.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#54
Gotcha, I misunderstood the "A CN can have more than one person attached to it" part. I didn't realize that derivatives also counted as part of the total selectees and thought only the principal applicant counted.
You are also missing the point Susie made above. There are holes between the numbers. So the numbers might go 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9 and so on. 3, 4 and 7 are holes. We don't know how many holes there are yet and we don't know how many selectees there are. So - we need to wait before making quick assumptions.
 

CWH

Active Member
#55
thank you for your reply.yes,thats what I keep reading so far. even If Im pending asylum,its still not clear status.But who know,maybe miracles happen.
I just wonder if I still would try,all they can say is NO and I will continue to proceed with my asylum.
based on your replies, it seemed to me that you entered legally and were out of status before filing for asylum. if this is true, you have a period of illegal stay. however, if you filed for asylum before you were out of status, you have not yet accrued any illegal stay because you are in asylum pending status. for the latter scenario, you can definitely do CP (but with asylum still pending, you are not supposed to go back to the country of persecution). You will need to consult an attorney for this.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#56
Wow! reiteration DV 2014, in Russia already appeared 549XX. Another site lies. Soon we will see 60,000 :D
Chances over 40,000 ------- 0,003%
Oh jeez. I love seeing you every year at this time Sloner, but as usual you are jumping to impossible to know conclusions.

I could say there are 39000 holes under 40000. There could be only 1000 cases - right? Now OBVIOUSLY I am not saying that is true - but since no one knows how many selectees there are you cannot possibly estimate the chances as you just did. See the point?

Now - I do think we are seeing some crazy high numbers and it "feels" like an overselected year, but we don't know that for sure yet.
 

veronice

Active Member
#58
Vero!! You have the knack of getting selected!

About numbers. There are going to be some high numbers thrown around - and people will make all sorts of assumptions without knowing enough to do so. Your case number is not the point, it's a question of how many holes there are in front of your number. More holes = more chances. But we won't know much more until we see the selectee count. For SA we will be able to immediately calculate the approximate number of holes - then you will know. I expect the selectee counts to be published in a VB in a month or two - so until then, keep safe.
My dear Simon! Right now we don't even have a working embassy in Venezuela, so it's going to be hard toake predictions as of today. But hey! I have a reason to enjoy another year with you guys and that's just amazing!
 

Sloner

Active Member
#59
Definitely too high! 1000 over my previous attempt. I have no hopes, but will enjoy this year.
Also, maybe my country will get free, so we need people inside to fix it.
Hey. High number again? This is becoming the norm. Curved software will not throw away. It costs money. :)
 

Sloner

Active Member
#60
Oh jeez. I love seeing you every year at this time Sloner, but as usual you are jumping to impossible to know conclusions.

I could say there are 39000 holes under 40000. There could be only 1000 cases - right? Now OBVIOUSLY I am not saying that is true - but since no one knows how many selectees there are you cannot possibly estimate the chances as you just did. See the point?

Now - I do think we are seeing some crazy high numbers and it "feels" like an overselected year, but we don't know that for sure yet.
Where are the holes from? They use the same bad software. Even the site went into hibernation, which has to go through the Chinese DNS :cool:
 
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