DVrecovery
New Member
Has any one noticed the very low percentage in the numbers of winners in some regions specially the AF region? is that a real notice or it just my illusion?
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DV 2017 Low winner percentage in some region.
- Thread starter DVrecovery
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
It is real. It is obvious. It has been discussed very often here.
DVrecovery
New Member
Hello Britsimon, you mean the low numbers are real?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The LOW percentage numbers are real - yes.
DVrecovery
New Member
What do you think the reason? it is frustrating in Egypt.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It isn't complicated. If you have one cake and 4 people want a slice they are all going to get enough cake. If 100 people want some cake, some might miss out. Africa has a LOT of entries....
yassir96
Member
so is this a normal every year type of thing or do you think that a second draw is likely to be held this year ?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
There is always a low percentage of winners - it's a lottery. If everyone won, it would have to be called something else!
The likelihood of a second draw will only be guessable when we see how many selectees are in each region. I expect to see that detailed on the next Visa Bulletin, which will be released next week.
yassir96
Member
There is always a low percentage of winners - it's a lottery. If everyone won, it would have to be called something else!
The likelihood of a second draw will only be guessable when we see how many selectees are in each region. I expect to see that detailed on the next Visa Bulletin, which will be released next week.
wow i know the chance of winning is slim but i never knew it was this slim. i guess we're just gonna have to wait and see then, i don't want to get my hopes up though, because we all know how that always ends up lol.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
At the link below you can see entries per country 2013 to 2015. DV2015 had 9.4 million entries (plus 5 million derivatives) There are only 50,000 Green Cards available between those 14 million people. The derivatives swell during the processing year so, the average chance of one of the original entries or derivatives getting a Green Card is less than 0.3%. Or 1 out of 300.
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...cs/DVApplicantEntrantsbyCountry 2013-2015.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...cs/DVApplicantEntrantsbyCountry 2013-2015.pdf
DVrecovery
New Member
I think DV2017 will be much less than 0.3%, I believe it will end up 1 out of 1000.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
That is a ridiculous statement. Do you not understand what you just said?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
You "believe" this based on what? We, especially britsimon, spend a lot of time looking at the numbers to understand properly what the chances are. So if you have a counterargument based on analysis of the data or a theory of something particular that will change I'm sure we'd love to hear it, but we need a bit more than "I believe" to take it seriously.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It's utterly daft. My example (which he is trying to compare to) is based on available visas 50k to total entries and family members (14 million in 2015, 17.5 million in 2016). The 50k is fixed, so he is saying (although he doesn't know it), that the entries/derivatives (which are around the same level each year) have suddenly jumped to 50 million this year (i.e. 1000 times the 50k).
It's just daft.
DVrecovery
New Member
what I'm saying is based on an eye witnessed numbers that I know myself. I didn't claim that I accurately calculate it based on facts ,here are the numbers if you care to believe:
- A group of 463 applicants winners = 0.
- A group of almost 7000 applicants = 3 winners.
-A group of almost 2500 applicant = 1 winner.
- A group of almost 3000 applicant = 0 winner.
- A group of almost 6000 applicant = 0 winner.
All applicant are from the same country same region, I'm sure of these numbers as I'm sure that I'm typing now. if these numbers give us any hint, what would it be?
that is the first part.
Second part: I know that Mr.britsimon is spending a lot of time investigating the statistics, but, first there is no statistics for DV2016, and of course DV2017 is not yet released and we don't know when they will be.
Third part. I have never said it is due to a sudden jump in the numbers of entries, but it could be due to a high immigration volume from some countries, which maybe predicted from the following E-mail from KCC
1- Note that the highlighted sentence is not mentioned in the DV 2017 instructions, especially the part of "NO Visas" .
2- The question is, as far as there is a country sent more than 50,000 , why it is still included in the program, however they know that there is no visas are going to be issued for the entries from this country. So there is a possibility that the selection is not only based on the numbers of entries in the very specific year, it is also based on the volume of immigrants sent by specific country in the previous years.
Hope I made my point clear, and excuse my English, as my second language.
thanks for your time guys, and I'm here to learn from you, and exchange experiences.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
what I'm saying is based on an eye witnessed numbers that I know myself. I didn't claim that I accurately calculate it based on facts ,here are the numbers if you care to believe:
- A group of 463 applicants winners = 0.
- A group of almost 7000 applicants = 3 winners.
-A group of almost 2500 applicant = 1 winner.
- A group of almost 3000 applicant = 0 winner.
- A group of almost 6000 applicant = 0 winner.
All applicant are from the same country same region, I'm sure of these numbers as I'm sure that I'm typing now. if these numbers give us any hint, what would it be?
that is the first part.
Second part: I know that Mr.britsimon is spending a lot of time investigating the statistics, but, first there is no statistics for DV2016, and of course DV2017 is not yet released and we don't know when they will be.
Third part. I have never said it is due to a sudden jump in the numbers of entries, but it could be due to a high immigration volume from some countries, which maybe predicted from the following E-mail from KCC
1- Note that the highlighted sentence is not mentioned in the DV 2017 instructions, especially the part of "NO Visas" .
2- The question is, as far as there is a country sent more than 50,000 , why it is still included in the program, however they know that there is no visas are going to be issued for the entries from this country. So there is a possibility that the selection is not only based on the numbers of entries in the very specific year, it is also based on the volume of immigrants sent by specific country in the previous years.
Hope I made my point clear, and excuse my English, as my second language.
thanks for your time guys, and I'm here to learn from you, and exchange experiences.
Just think about what you are saying. I explained it very simply - and I quote 2016 stats which are available (we have global entry numbers and selectees per country). So - it is VERY clear that the 100-1 guess is crazy.
As for your numbers - well I have no idea how those entries were entered, checked, or how you have access to that data. You don't even mention the country. There is no doubt that large numbers of entries are excluded because of fraudulent entries (and I have compiled and published stats on that).
1. The highlighted bit is part of the standard law that has run the lottery since its inception. No change there. Nothing mysterious, nothing new.
2. Countries excluded because of hitting the limited are published each year. That is part of the DV2017 instructions, just as it always is.
DVrecovery
New Member
If you have the statistics for dv2016, please provide a link.
The country of the entries I provided is Egypt. Believe me they are not into fraudulent,anyway they are a tiny piece of the big picture.I will wait and see the big picture in Egypt next 10 days or two weeks max.
The highlighted bit is not a part of the law, the law states that the native of some countries that sent 50,000 are not Eligible to participate in the program at the first place, but never mentioned any thing about "No visas". No visas reflects that they already participated and although they participated they will not get any visas due to the high volume of the native migrants from their countries. this is why I found it strange.
thanks for reply.
The country of the entries I provided is Egypt. Believe me they are not into fraudulent,anyway they are a tiny piece of the big picture.I will wait and see the big picture in Egypt next 10 days or two weeks max.
The highlighted bit is not a part of the law, the law states that the native of some countries that sent 50,000 are not Eligible to participate in the program at the first place, but never mentioned any thing about "No visas". No visas reflects that they already participated and although they participated they will not get any visas due to the high volume of the native migrants from their countries. this is why I found it strange.
thanks for reply.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The 2016 stats are in the June 2015 VB
Egypt is a limited country, so now we can discuss something a bit more meaningful than the crazy numbers on a global scale.
Egypt, like a few other countries, gets limited and therefore has a lower chance of winning per entry than other countries in the region. The reason is because far more people enter than can possibly get visas. So - their winners numbers are capped and Egyptian winners will all have low case numbers. I have explained this many times both here and on my blog.
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Sm1smom
Super Moderator
For sheez! Have you read the actual law? You really need to stop this conspiracy theory insinuation you're going on and on about.
FYI: here's what the actual law governing DV says. INA 203(c) says:
Distribution of visas. -
(i) No visas for natives of high-admission states.- The percentage of visas made available under this paragraph to natives of a high- admission state is 0.
https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html
The guidance Memo of Sept 2015 announcing the DV 2017 also uses the expression no DV (as in no diversity visa) for high admission countries. Read it up for yourself
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...iversity Immigrant Visa Program (DV-2017).pdf
DVrecovery
New Member
I have never meant or said anything related to a conspiracy theory, it is a mere attempt to get deeper understanding.as I mentioned before I will wait and see the big picture.
and the official instruction link which is located here https://travel.state.gov/content/da...ranslations/DV-2017 Instructions and FAQs.pdf didn't mention the term "No visas" read it yourself.
Not sure, but seems that the post annoyed you and britsimon, anyway I will keep quiet and will only read from now on, if this is what it meant from the forum.