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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

adela15 said:
I looked at real CN increase (not with holes) for May, June, July ..around 550-650 ( with response rate maybe 300 per month), so they took a lot of backlog to get to 2200 visas... I might be wrong as I have just looked very quickly ..I am around 704 real CN numbers away from 35700.. I do hope you are right and it gets at least at 38000
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I think you'll be fine....
 
DV4ROGER said:
I expect 18,700-19,600 visas for EU region in CEAC.
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this is with or without AOS. last year EU received 18237 visas not including AOS. with Nigeria's exclusion EU should receive more than last year. So it is logical that 18,700-19,600 is without AOS.
 
Candeu said:
this is with or without AOS. last year EU received 18237 visas not including AOS. with Nigeria's exclusion EU should receive more than last year. So it is logical that 18,700-19,600 is without AOS.
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When he said "in CEAC" he means without AoS.
 
So EU visas to be issued in August September can vary from 3.2 to 4.1k even with somewhat overstated 15500 visas at the end of July.
 
Candeu said:
So EU visas to be issued in August September can vary from 3.2 to 4.1k even with somewhat overstated 15500 visas at the end of July.
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Well yes - that is what I have been saying. EU is on a solid 2000 plus pace (has been for months).

So - today it is at 10348 and will most likely be ~11400 by month end
Then 2000+ per month. for June/July/August.

That means the final month will have 1000 to 2000 left to issue which could mostly come from closing AP cases (being pushed through before year end) and backlog cases - which is exactly what I have been trying to tell you.
 
Britsimon said:
Well yes - that is what I have been saying. EU is on a solid 2000 plus pace (has been for months).

So - today it is at 10348 and will most likely be ~11400 by month end
Then 2000+ per month. for June/July/August.

That means the final month will have 1000 to 2000 left to issue which could mostly come from closing AP cases (being pushed through before year end) and backlog cases - which is exactly what I have been trying to tell you.
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ok. all in all 13.5k visas will give rise to 76% response rate up to July, which is ok percent compared to historical. It means after that there shouldn't be many APs left. right? As for the backlog cases, no one can know yet what will be the portion of backlog cases in the next VBs..
 
Candeu said:
ok. all in all 13.5k visas will give rise to 76% response rate up to July, which is ok percent compared to historical. It means after that there shouldn't be many APs left. right? As for the backlog cases, no one can know yet what will be the portion of backlog cases in the next VBs..
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Sorry, I meant 76% approval rate..
 
Britsimon said:
[...] Could you repost your calculation picture again some time [...]
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uc

If you think the global quota is 54,321 just multiply the table with 0.54321.
For EU we had in recent years an average CP split factor of 0.9583 and in DV-2014 all three regions AS, EU and SA were lined up for a global quota of 53,900, so I'm dreaming of 0.9583*0.539*39,762 = 19,608 visas for EU in CEAC. :)
 
DV4ROGER said:
uc

If you think the global quota is 54,321 just multiply the table with 0.54321.
For EU we had in recent years an average CP split factor of 0.9583 and in DV-2014 all three regions AS, EU and SA were lined up for a global quota of 53,900, so I'm dreaming of 0.9583*0.539*39,762 = 19,608 visas for EU in CEAC. :)
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53900? Wow! That would be a nice dream.

Thanks for that Roger.

It should be pretty much the same split for this year I think - right? No country changes and smallish population changes...
 
Britsimon said:
53900? Wow! That would be a nice dream.

Thanks for that Roger.

It should be pretty much the same split for this year I think - right? No country changes and smallish population changes...
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EU quota in DV-2016 will be slightly lower due to a small change in the population split.
 
Dear Britsimon, Sm1smom, Martin9, SusieQQQ

Another miracle happened:)
My husband became cleared today
As I mentioned before our interview was on 31 March in abudhabi embassy
Me and my son became cleared on 21 April and my husband today after 47 days
I'm so happy and again really appreciate your guidance during all these days in this forum
USAAAAA we are coming ;)
 
laleh said:
Dear Britsimon, Sm1smom, Martin9, SusieQQQ

Another miracle happened:)
My husband became cleared today
As I mentioned before our interview was on 31 March in abudhabi embassy
Me and my son became cleared on 21 April and my husband today after 47 days
I'm so happy and again really appreciate your guidance during all these days in this forum
USAAAAA we are coming ;)
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Congratulations!
 
laleh said:
Dear Britsimon, Sm1smom, Martin9, SusieQQQ

Another miracle happened:)
My husband became cleared today
As I mentioned before our interview was on 31 March in abudhabi embassy
Me and my son became cleared on 21 April and my husband today after 47 days
I'm so happy and again really appreciate your guidance during all these days in this forum
USAAAAA we are coming ;)
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Congratulations. Very well done.
Have you decided where you are moving to yet?
 
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