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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

mradel said:
My documents was competed as per general and country specific requirement ,
moreover at that blue sheet which the CO gave me was also places for
every missing document in case was anything missing she would marked
but she only marked at the administrative process box and told me to check every 2 to 3 days
the embassy website then you will be required to bring your passport back to the embassy .
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I think they wanted to cross check something. Nothing to worry you will get visa.
 
mradel said:
Dear Britsmon,
I had my interview yesterday in Abu Dhabi embassy but they give me a blue paper says that it's temporary refuse and the
consular officer told me to check @ the embassy website by my case number then when you
will be notified on our website to come back withyour passport to the embassy
At this blue sheet they marked "administrative procedures"
Please let me know your opinion

Thanks
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Sorry to hear that. If you were not asked to produce any further documents you might be on AP for additional background checks. That sort of AP varies from a few weeks to 3 or 4 months. So - all you can do is hope it doesn't take too long. Good luck.
 
Britsimon said:
Yes of course, but accounting for those extra selectees the density is still increased. Remember of the 6500 difference, 2000 of those are earlier country limits for Uzbekistan and Ukraine (which cutoff early). So the remaining 4500 difference (less than 3k cases) would have to account for 11000 or 12000 CN range - which they don't. Hence - the density is increased. That is offset by the increase of quota for EU. However, to get to 45k that would mean all 40k selectees would be current - which still seems unlikely.

Also - let's say EU gets to 41k. There are only about 1500 cases above 41k (so maybe 2300 people). So - that would mean 38k out of 40k selectees got current. That is actually pretty good compared to last year where around 9/10k people did not go current - so 41k would mean around 2000 more people get current this year compared to last year.
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Britsimon. sorry for asking the same question again, but you change your answers time after time, perhaps due to arrival of new info. In this thread you said about 37/38k cut off projection for August. Does it mean you expect the numbers above will probably not become current by September 2015?
 
Candeu said:
Britsimon. sorry for asking the same question again, but you change your answers time after time, perhaps due to arrival of new info. In this thread you said about 37/38k cut off projection for August. Does it mean you expect the numbers above will probably not become current by September 2015?
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Yes my answer will always change over time as we get more info. I'm not Russian, and this is like guesstimating the weight of an elephant in a dark room. So yeah, ask me in a month or two and you might get different info. If that worries you, feel free to ignore me. :)

I have given a range that I expect to be the final range. I think I said 38 to 41 but I haven't done a detailed model for EU yet.

Last year they hit the max numbers in August on a couple of regions, so I think they will try and do that again which just leaves them September to sort out stragglers. Someone who rescheduled a November interview was given an August 17 date - in other words the tail end of what they expect to be the main booking time, the beginning of the stragglers. Last year, only AF made any meaningful progress in September.

By the way, the DS260 fiasco gas potential to change everything. I was thinking they would get this under control, but there are still obvious and subtle impacts showing. If something about DS 260 has changed response rates or continues to impact cases then it could have a significant impact, and even a small change could see a big impact on EU in particular. EU is the closest of the big three regions to having a sensible number of selectees, so if any of them get current or very close it would be EU.
 
Britsimon said:
Yes my answer will always change over time as we get more info. I'm not Russian, and this is like guesstimating the weight of an elephant in a dark room. So yeah, ask me in a month or two and you might get different info. If that worries you, feel free to ignore me. :)

I have given a range that I expect to be the final range. I think I said 38 to 41 but I haven't done a detailed model for EU yet.

Last year they hit the max numbers in August on a couple of regions, so I think they will try and do that again which just leaves them September to sort out stragglers. Someone who rescheduled a November interview was given an August 17 date - in other words the tail end of what they expect to be the main booking time, the beginning of the stragglers. Last year, only AF made any meaningful progress in September.

By the way, the DS260 fiasco gas potential to change everything. I was thinking they would get this under control, but there are still obvious and subtle impacts showing. If something about DS 260 has changed response rates or continues to impact cases then it could have a significant impact, and even a small change could see a big impact on EU in particular. EU is the closest of the big three regions to having a sensible number of selectees, so if any of them get current or very close it would be EU.
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What do you mean by "small change could see a big impact on EU in particular"?
Do you mean low response rates could have this impact?
is the low response rate due to technical reasons and, if so, do you think it will be resolved soon or will remain unsolved for dv 2015?

btw, I am not Russian too.
 
ayanag said:
Can anyone in US pay the $160 online GC preparation fee other than a host?
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Anyone with a credit card whether in the U.S. or outside the US can pay the $165 immigrant fee on your behalf. I once paid for a friend of mine while residing in Malaysia.
 
Candeu said:
What do you mean by "small change could see a big impact on EU in particular"?
Do you mean low response rates could have this impact?
is the low response rate due to technical reasons and, if so, do you think it will be resolved soon or will remain unsolved for dv 2015?

btw, I am not Russian too.
Click to expand...

As I explained before, the number of high number cases is actually pretty low. Above EU40k (for instance) there are only 1840 cases (about 3300 people).

So let's say that for some reason the response rate were to fall in EU by 5%. That 5% could be over 1000 cases. That 1000 cases could mean a 3000 change in case numbers.

So - why would the response rate happen. Well typically you need to look for factors that would affect everyone globally, or everyone in a region, or everyone in a country (if the country has a significant share of the selectees).

  1. A global impact could be something like the DS260 fiasco - either the delays meaning some people don't get their DS260s processed in time or the new process putting large numbers of people off submitting their forms. I think the DS260 could indeed have an impact.
  2. A regional impact could be the relative wealth between a region (like EU) compared to USA. In this case I don't believe EU/USA comparisons have changed radically last year to this year.
  3. The country level impact could be something like a localized war such as the issues in Ukraine at the moment. Ukraine has ~4600 selectees - what if some of those are affected by the trouble - and perhaps cannot get documents needed for the DV process. This could cause impact on response and refusal/AP rates.
I think point 1 and 2 are two possible reasons that the response rate/issued rate could be impacted. Maybe you can think of some more reasons.

Unfortunately there is NO WAY to tell the actual response rate until after it has happened (and because DV2014 data wasn't as complete we can only guess at last year).

Ultimately these factors affect EU more than the other regions because EU is less overfilled than the other regions (particularly AF and AS). So - whilst a small percentage change could even send EU current that same percentage change would not put much of a dent in AF or AS.
 
Britsimon said:
As I explained before, the number of high number cases is actually pretty low. Above EU40k (for instance) there are only 1840 cases (about 3300 people).

So let's say that for some reason the response rate were to fall in EU by 5%. That 5% could be over 1000 cases. That 1000 cases could mean a 3000 change in case numbers.

So - why would the response rate happen. Well typically you need to look for factors that would affect everyone globally, or everyone in a region, or everyone in a country (if the country has a significant share of the selectees).

  1. A global impact could be something like the DS260 fiasco - either the delays meaning some people don't get their DS260s processed in time or the new process putting large numbers of people off submitting their forms. I think the DS260 could indeed have an impact.
  2. A regional impact could be the relative wealth between a region (like EU) compared to USA. In this case I don't believe EU/USA comparisons have changed radically last year to this year.
  3. The country level impact could be something like a localized war such as the issues in Ukraine at the moment. Ukraine has ~4600 selectees - what if some of those are affected by the trouble - and perhaps cannot get documents needed for the DV process. This could cause impact on response and refusal/AP rates.
I think point 1 and 2 are two possible reasons that the response rate/issued rate could be impacted. Maybe you can think of some more reasons.

Unfortunately there is NO WAY to tell the actual response rate until after it has happened (and because DV2014 data wasn't as complete we can only guess at last year).

Ultimately these factors affect EU more than the other regions because EU is less overfilled than the other regions (particularly AF and AS). So - whilst a small percentage change could even send EU current that same percentage change would not put much of a dent in AF or AS.
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Regarding the 260 fiasco, if it continues to have an impact, would that mean KCC needs higher cut-offs to accommodate enough people with already processed forms, as it has been been doing so far with accelerated progression?
At the extreme, if KCC is still behind with processing the forms at the end of the fiscal year, would that make final cut-offs higher?
 
Sensei-san said:
Regarding the 260 fiasco, if it continues to have an impact, would that mean KCC needs higher cut-offs to accommodate enough people with already processed forms, as it has been been doing so far with accelerated progression?
At the extreme, if KCC is still behind with processing the forms at the end of the fiscal year, would that make final cut-offs higher?
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I can't see that KCC would be behind for much longer and definitely not still at the end of the FY...surely by now the bulk of forms must be in, and it is only a small percentage of stragglers left.
 
Sensei-san said:
Regarding the 260 fiasco, if it continues to have an impact, would that mean KCC needs higher cut-offs to accommodate enough people with already processed forms, as it has been been doing so far with accelerated progression?
At the extreme, if KCC is still behind with processing the forms at the end of the fiscal year, would that make final cut-offs higher?
Click to expand...

Yes it could mean exactly that - IF it doesn't get fixed.

SusieQQQ said:
I can't see that KCC would be behind for much longer and definitely not still at the end of the FY...surely by now the bulk of forms must be in, and it is only a small percentage of stragglers left.
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I really thought they would have cleared things up by now - but unless we see a big amount of progress in the next 2NLs it seems like it is still a factor. Let's assume it stays at 4 months processing time - that would mean that selectees submitting as early as March will start to run out of time to be processed by early July. We know there are always some people that leave things late - but no one is expecting March to be a significant cutoff.
 
Britsimon said:
Yes it could mean exactly that - IF it doesn't get fixed.



I really thought they would have cleared things up by now - but unless we see a big amount of progress in the next 2NLs it seems like it is still a factor. Let's assume it stays at 4 months processing time - that would mean that selectees submitting as early as March will start to run out of time to be processed by early July. We know there are always some people that leave things late - but no one is expecting March to be a significant cutoff.
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Even if it does stay at 4 months - my contention it won't affect the vast majority of applicants, who will have already submitted their applications. It can't be more than a few percent, at most, left by now?
 
SusieQQQ said:
Even if it does stay at 4 months - my contention it won't affect the vast majority of applicants, who will have already submitted their applications. It can't be more than a few percent, at most, left by now?
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Agreed - but even if it affected 2%, it would be a big deal. All speculation for now though. Time will tell.
 
At the other extreme - if they catch up with processing tomorrow, would the progression stop until the Consulates clear the backlog of current cases? At that point the progression would depend on the capacity of the Consulates.
If they are behind on visas issued now (which I don't know if they are) and the consular capacity is limited (i.e. Nepal), is that a possibility they will not be able to issue the intended number of visas for the region unless they limit some countries?
 
Britsimon said:
Agreed - but even if it affected 2%, it would be a big deal. All speculation for now though. Time will tell.
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What was the % of numbers that never got current last year?

I'm not that convinced it is a big deal (other than to the affected people, but past 6 months after selection date I can't be too sympathetic for late submissions tbh) ... 2% of 125k is 2.5k - I'd guess that's well within the error margin that is the reason KCC over-selects to begin with?
 
Sensei-san said:
At the other extreme - if they catch up with processing tomorrow, would the progression stop until the Consulates clear the backlog of current cases? At that point the progression would depend on the capacity of the Consulates.
If they are behind on visas issued now (which I don't know if they are) and the consular capacity is limited (i.e. Nepal), is that a possibility they will not be able to issue the intended number of visas for the region unless they limit some countries?
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Someone reported that KCC is talking to his consulate to try fit him in - so this may already be happening?
 
One more question please; can anyone tell me which airport is closer to Maryland? Some says Dallas others say Washington. Which one do you recommend me?
 
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