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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

Hi,

Situation details:

My wife's case number (CN) is 2015EU00044xxx. We are both currently present in the USA in F-1 student status. She has applied for OPT in December 2014, and I am a PhD student whose current I-20 expires on 5/31/2015 (but could be extended relatively easily). We have not yet submitted our DS260 (as to why, see below).

Our analysis:

We have been living in the USA for seven years on crappy F1 student visas, so we were extremely happy to find out last May that she has been selected for DV2015 and that we may finally receive green cards. However, we soon realized that her CN is very high and that - especially after we saw that the highest cut-off number for EU for DV2014 was 40,150 - there might not be visas available for us during DV2015. As some of you may already know, F-1 student visa is not a dual-intent visa, which - as far as I understand - means that in order to maintain status and to be able to renew F-1 status, one cannot show intent to immigrate to the US. This has put is in a very difficult situation: if we proceed with the DV lottery green card application process and file the DS260, we could jeopardize our current F-1 student visa status (and future possible extensions of it, and/or applications for OPT) for green cards that there is a huge probability we in the end might not get (because of our high CN); however, if we do not proceed with the application, we could miss this (however unlikely) opportunity to finally get our green cards.

Because of this, we have decided not to file DS260 until February 2015. Our thinking was that because of the high CN, we would have to go with consular processing anyway, and that even if we get an interview scheduled, it would not happen before July/August/September 2015, so KCC should have enough time to process our DS260 before the time is up for scheduling the interview. In the meantime, our hope was to follow the progression of cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin, and wait at least until my wife's OPT application is processed and approved. Cut-off dates for DV2015 are so far looking promising (compared to DV2014), so we are now starting to think that our chances for getting the green cards by September are increased.

Questions:

1. Is our strategy good? I.e. should we wait with filing DS260 until February? Or should we file it ASAP? Or, should we perhaps give up the DV lottery green card application altogether because of the high CN and preserve what we have (lawful F-1 visa status)?

2. Can anybody explain why DV2014 for EU ended with the CN 40,150 and what are our chances with CN EU00044xxx this year?

I apologize for the lengthy post. We would appreciate any thoughts/advice regarding our situation. Thanks.
 
sextus empiricus said:
Hi,

Situation details:

My wife's case number (CN) is 2015EU00044xxx. We are both currently present in the USA in F-1 student status. She has applied for OPT in December 2014, and I am a PhD student whose current I-20 expires on 5/31/2015 (but could be extended relatively easily). We have not yet submitted our DS260 (as to why, see below).

Our analysis:

We have been living in the USA for seven years on crappy F1 student visas, so we were extremely happy to find out last May that she has been selected for DV2015 and that we may finally receive green cards. However, we soon realized that her CN is very high and that - especially after we saw that the highest cut-off number for EU for DV2014 was 40,150 - there might not be visas available for us during DV2015. As some of you may already know, F-1 student visa is not a dual-intent visa, which - as far as I understand - means that in order to maintain status and to be able to renew F-1 status, one cannot show intent to immigrate to the US. This has put is in a very difficult situation: if we proceed with the DV lottery green card application process and file the DS260, we could jeopardize our current F-1 student visa status (and future possible extensions of it, and/or applications for OPT) for green cards that there is a huge probability we in the end might not get (because of our high CN); however, if we do not proceed with the application, we could miss this (however unlikely) opportunity to finally get our green cards.

Because of this, we have decided not to file DS260 until February 2015. Our thinking was that because of the high CN, we would have to go with consular processing anyway, and that even if we get an interview scheduled, it would not happen before July/August/September 2015, so KCC should have enough time to process our DS260 before the time is up for scheduling the interview. In the meantime, our hope was to follow the progression of cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin, and wait at least until my wife's OPT application is processed and approved. Cut-off dates for DV2015 are so far looking promising (compared to DV2014), so we are now starting to think that our chances for getting the green cards by September are increased.

Questions:

1. Is our strategy good? I.e. should we wait with filing DS260 until February? Or should we file it ASAP? Or, should we perhaps give up the DV lottery green card application altogether because of the high CN and preserve what we have (lawful F-1 visa status)?

2. Can anybody explain why DV2014 for EU ended with the CN 40,150 and what are our chances with CN EU00044xxx this year?

I apologize for the lengthy post. We would appreciate any thoughts/advice regarding our situation. Thanks.
Click to expand...

I think you were right to hesitate. The reality is that the case numbers are more dense this year compared to last year. The maximum case number seems to be EU45006. So you are perilously close to that number - you are within the last few hundred selectees in a long line of people. Last year the cutoff came at 40150 BUT the max case number was about 56xxx.

I have written about this extensively on my blog at the link below. You can see the data for yourself and my analysis.

Bottomline, I would be very cautious about submitting your papers if I were you.
 
Britsimon said:
I think you were right to hesitate. The reality is that the case numbers are more dense this year compared to last year. The maximum case number seems to be EU45006. So you are perilously close to that number - you are within the last few hundred selectees in a long line of people. Last year the cutoff came at 40150 BUT the max case number was about 56xxx.

I have written about this extensively on my blog at the link below. You can see the data for yourself and my analysis.

Bottomline, I would be very cautious about submitting your papers if I were you.
Click to expand...


Dear Britsmon,

Thank you very much for your reply. I have already seen your blog and learned a lot from your posts. Unfortunately, there are some things you wrote that eluded me, particularly some details of your very thorough DV2015 analysis. For example, I am not sure I understand the concept of density of case numbers (although I saw that your prediction for EU numbers this year will fall between 38XXX and 41XXX :(). However, I did learn from it that the maximum CN for this year in EU is 45006. One thing I would appreciate is if you could briefly explain how could the final cutoff CN for DV2014 be 40150 but the highest CN that got the visa was 56xxx? Is it because the person with CN 56xxx was not from EU?

Also, I value your advice that we should be cautious; but, are you saying that you think we should not try to apply at all, or that we should wait (and if the latter, then how long)?
 
sextus empiricus said:
Dear Britsmon,

Thank you very much for your reply. I have already seen your blog and learned a lot from your posts. Unfortunately, there are some things you wrote that eluded me, particularly some details of your very thorough DV2015 analysis. For example, I am not sure I understand the concept of density of case numbers (although I saw that your prediction for EU numbers this year will fall between 38XXX and 41XXX :(). However, I did learn from it that the maximum CN for this year in EU is 45006. One thing I would appreciate is if you could briefly explain how could the final cutoff CN for DV2014 be 40150 but the highest CN that got the visa was 56xxx? Is it because the person with CN 56xxx was not from EU?

Also, I value your advice that we should be cautious; but, are you saying that you think we should not try to apply at all, or that we should wait (and if the latter, then how long)?
Click to expand...

Regarding the 56XXX - that wasn't the highest number to get a visa - that was the highest case number (equivalent to the 45006). What that means is that everyone with a number between EU40150 and EU56XXX never went current. That is a lot of people - and that is kind of my point. EU has almost as many selectees this year as DV2014. There is, we believe, a small increase in the quota for EU but it is not enough to give everyone a visa, unless refusal and no show/non response rates are dramatically different this year.

About density. That is the number of actual cases per 1000 cases (remembering that there are many holes). Essentially you can think of it this way. Almost as many selectees are squeezed into those 45006 cases as needed 56XXX last year. So - your number is much higher than the same number last year. 44 out of 56 was one thing - but you are 44 out of 45. If you check your number against the spreadsheet you can see exactly how many cases are in front of you and behind you.

So - honestly - I think you should not try at all. Since you have rightly identified the immigrant intent downside of applying you have to weigh that against your chances of going current - which I think is very very low - almost no chance.

By all means see if that changes as we get through the next couple of VBs. I haven't wanted to make VB predictions because VBs are hard to guess and for fear that people would assume my (more important) year end predictions were just more bad guesses. However, I think you need some sort of "sign" to help make your decision - so I will share my thoughts with you.

I think EU will slow down slightly. I believe KCC will try to get close to or at the final number by August interviews. So - if I am right they only need to get to 37/38 by August. The DS260 backlog has forced them to get ahead on the VB progress but completing DS260s will yield schedulable cases within the existing VB numbers - so I would not be surprised to see a slow down in VB progress and I would expect that by May we will have lost the advantage compared to last year - so EU might be around 30 to 31k for the May interviews and then only increase by 2 to 3 k per month from then on (stopping in August).

If you were to submit, the last month you could conceivably do that is April (March would be safer). If you get mixed up with the May 5 (DV2016) workload, then you won't have time to be processed. So - I suggest wait until we see the CEAC data for the early March and perhaps the April VB (published early March). If that VB is dramatically higher than 31k then you would have cause to feel more hopeful.

One last thing. I am noticing visas issued are behind where they should be. That could change in the next few weeks - which is why I mention the CEAC data - that is another good clue as to what is going on.

Sorry for the long post - I hope it helps. If anything is still unclear - ask again.
 
Hi guys,

I would like to get your opinion on my situation. My case number is EUxxx13xxx and I submitted the documents for me and my wife in July. Case was unlocked again in september because we had to correct something
I was hoping to get the interview in march, but yesterday i called to the visa center and they told me that the scheduling for march is already finished and our documents are still processing...

so my question to all of you, what do you think when the interview will be? Could it be even later than April??

Thanks and cheers
 
I will add this to reply at sexepm. : My CN EU40.+++You can see that from 2006 to 2013 every year everyone got a visa interview, unfortunately for DV2014, it was the first year it did not become current! One of the reasons is that there we more selectees (around 140,000) that year. So it’s kind of a worst case scenario. DV2015 should be better for higher CN., 125.000 selectees!!!
 
MrTren said:
Hi guys,

I would like to get your opinion on my situation. My case number is EUxxx13xxx and I submitted the documents for me and my wife in July. Case was unlocked again in september because we had to correct something
I was hoping to get the interview in march, but yesterday i called to the visa center and they told me that the scheduling for march is already finished and our documents are still processing...

so my question to all of you, what do you think when the interview will be? Could it be even later than April??

Thanks and cheers
Click to expand...
OOps! I sent my form on June and reopened again in September! called in Middle of December ,said to me the process is finished! hope to receive the 2sl this week!
I think that you are in next 2SL upload ! ;)

Cheers
 
Dear Britsmon,
I had my interview yesterday in Abu Dhabi embassy but they give me a blue paper says that it's temporary refuse and the
consular officer told me to check @ the embassy website by my case number then when you
will be notified on our website to come back withyour passport to the embassy
At this blue sheet they marked "administrative procedures"
Please let me know your opinion

Thanks
 
mradel said:
Dear Britsmon,
I had my interview yesterday in Abu Dhabi embassy but they give me a blue paper says that it's temporary refuse and the
consular officer told me to check @ the embassy website by my case number then when you
will be notified on our website to come back withyour passport to the embassy
At this blue sheet they marked "administrative procedures"
Please let me know your opinion

Thanks
Click to expand...
Hi Mradel

What is your chargeability country?
 
Britsimon said:
Regarding the 56XXX - that wasn't the highest number to get a visa - that was the highest case number (equivalent to the 45006). What that means is that everyone with a number between EU40150 and EU56XXX never went current. That is a lot of people - and that is kind of my point. EU has almost as many selectees this year as DV2014. There is, we believe, a small increase in the quota for EU but it is not enough to give everyone a visa, unless refusal and no show/non response rates are dramatically different this year.

About density. That is the number of actual cases per 1000 cases (remembering that there are many holes). Essentially you can think of it this way. Almost as many selectees are squeezed into those 45006 cases as needed 56XXX last year. So - your number is much higher than the same number last year. 44 out of 56 was one thing - but you are 44 out of 45. If you check your number against the spreadsheet you can see exactly how many cases are in front of you and behind you.

So - honestly - I think you should not try at all. Since you have rightly identified the immigrant intent downside of applying you have to weigh that against your chances of going current - which I think is very very low - almost no chance.

By all means see if that changes as we get through the next couple of VBs. I haven't wanted to make VB predictions because VBs are hard to guess and for fear that people would assume my (more important) year end predictions were just more bad guesses. However, I think you need some sort of "sign" to help make your decision - so I will share my thoughts with you.

I think EU will slow down slightly. I believe KCC will try to get close to or at the final number by August interviews. So - if I am right they only need to get to 37/38 by August. The DS260 backlog has forced them to get ahead on the VB progress but completing DS260s will yield schedulable cases within the existing VB numbers - so I would not be surprised to see a slow down in VB progress and I would expect that by May we will have lost the advantage compared to last year - so EU might be around 30 to 31k for the May interviews and then only increase by 2 to 3 k per month from then on (stopping in August).

If you were to submit, the last month you could conceivably do that is April (March would be safer). If you get mixed up with the May 5 (DV2016) workload, then you won't have time to be processed. So - I suggest wait until we see the CEAC data for the early March and perhaps the April VB (published early March). If that VB is dramatically higher than 31k then you would have cause to feel more hopeful.

One last thing. I am noticing visas issued are behind where they should be. That could change in the next few weeks - which is why I mention the CEAC data - that is another good clue as to what is going on.

Sorry for the long post - I hope it helps. If anything is still unclear - ask again.
Click to expand...
Britsimon, you compare 45xxx with 56xxx, but does it make sense to also compare the number of winners in 2014- 46,589 with that in 2015-40000? I mean more were selected last year than this year.
 
MrTren said:
Hi guys,

I would like to get your opinion on my situation. My case number is EUxxx13xxx and I submitted the documents for me and my wife in July. Case was unlocked again in september because we had to correct something
I was hoping to get the interview in march, but yesterday i called to the visa center and they told me that the scheduling for march is already finished and our documents are still processing...

so my question to all of you, what do you think when the interview will be? Could it be even later than April??

Thanks and cheers
Click to expand...
In general, unlocking DS260 should not delay your interview date, unless you made major changes/corrections, like addition of derivatives. Four solid months should be enough for KCC to process your form even after you made major changes/corrections on your DS260. So, I hope you will be interviewed in April.
 
mradel said:
Dear Britsmon,
I had my interview yesterday in Abu Dhabi embassy but they give me a blue paper says that it's temporary refuse and the
consular officer told me to check @ the embassy website by my case number then when you
will be notified on our website to come back withyour passport to the embassy
At this blue sheet they marked "administrative procedures"
Please let me know your opinion

Thanks
Click to expand...
Did the CO tell you why you are on AP? Were your documents full and updated as per general and country specific requirements?
 
Last edited:
My documents was competed as per general and country specific requirement ,
moreover at that blue sheet which the CO gave me was also places for
every missing document in case was anything missing she would marked
but she only marked at the administrative process box and told me to check every 2 to 3 days
the embassy website then you will be required to bring your passport back to the embassy .
 
God-Is-Love said:
In general, unlocking DS260 should not delay your interview date, unless you made major changes/corrections, like addition of derivatives. Four solid months should be enough for KCC to process your form even after you made major changes/corrections on your DS260. So, I hope you will be interviewed in April.
Click to expand...
Hi and thanks for you reply! We corrected the vaccination status.. I guess that is not a major change...Afterwards I think it wasn't necessary to re-open the case for such an amendment. but whatever :) Let's wait
 
Candeu said:
Britsimon, you compare 45xxx with 56xxx, but does it make sense to also compare the number of winners in 2014- 46,589 with that in 2015-40000? I mean more were selected last year than this year.
Click to expand...

Yes of course, but accounting for those extra selectees the density is still increased. Remember of the 6500 difference, 2000 of those are earlier country limits for Uzbekistan and Ukraine (which cutoff early). So the remaining 4500 difference (less than 3k cases) would have to account for 11000 or 12000 CN range - which they don't. Hence - the density is increased. That is offset by the increase of quota for EU. However, to get to 45k that would mean all 40k selectees would be current - which still seems unlikely.

Also - let's say EU gets to 41k. There are only about 1500 cases above 41k (so maybe 2300 people). So - that would mean 38k out of 40k selectees got current. That is actually pretty good compared to last year where around 9/10k people did not go current - so 41k would mean around 2000 more people get current this year compared to last year.
 
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