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DV 2015 Oceania winners

Carolineinthecity said:
My number is current, the VB came out 9th December for February interviews - up to 775 for OC, my case number is below 775
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Oh OK. I was confused about how that worked. I think in that case my number has been current since November... That's a little more worrying for me. I have emailed the KCC to see if I can get some information as to why mine might be delayed as I have done everything I am supposed to have done up to this point. Just playing that waiting game. Do you know any reason why it could have been delayed?
 
OK guys, let's avoid the confusion and address a few things which are basics - but worth going over.

KCC schedule interviews in batches according to case number order. The order is not important within a batch for a given month (so someone who has number 350 could be interviewed earlier in the month than someone at 300 given that they are both current.

However, NO interview will be scheduled until the DS260 has been processed. So - the batches only draw from a list of people that are a) processed and b) current. Being processed, but not being current will mean you can't be scheduled. Being current but not being processed meaans you can't be scheduled.

The DS260s are a new process this year and the whole implementation was an almighty F up. There have been a number of impacts because of the move to this electronic based system - one of which a big backlog/delays on the initial processing. So - people who submitted late have been delayed because the processing is taking 4 to 5 months. However, not all DS260s will be completed at the same pace. two DS260s submitted on the same day might be completed 2 or 3 weeks apart. This is particularly true for people whose information shows living or travel history in the T countries (countries with terrorism concerns). Hopefully this speed of processing is improving.

The VB is published in advance. So - we are about to see the "February VB" (confusingly published in January, and extra confusing covering interviews in March. People are informed of their interviews by email (2NL) about a week after the VB is published (which is likely to be tomorrow/Friday).

"at NVC" means nothing serious - it is the "default" setting - it really means the case is at KCC - but that could be with or without the DS260 being submitted.
 
Kiel said:
Oh OK. I was confused about how that worked. I think in that case my number has been current since November... That's a little more worrying for me. I have emailed the KCC to see if I can get some information as to why mine might be delayed as I have done everything I am supposed to have done up to this point. Just playing that waiting game. Do you know any reason why it could have been delayed?
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OK - please read my post above. Re your case being delayed - they have probably failed to include you in the Sydney interviews because you were originally on AOS. track. It is worth you while giving them a call and being persistent. You need to confirm a) that that have processed your form completely (they should have done that by now for sure) and b) that they are including you in SYD interviews tin this batch (i.e. this week and next). I suggest you call tomorrow - they are in Eastern time zone so this time of day is already too late.
 
Britsimon said:
OK - please read my post above. Re your case being delayed - they have probably failed to include you in the Sydney interviews because you were originally on AOS. track. It is worth you while giving them a call and being persistent. You need to confirm a) that that have processed your form completely (they should have done that by now for sure) and b) that they are including you in SYD interviews tin this batch (i.e. this week and next). I suggest you call tomorrow - they are in Eastern time zone so this time of day is already too late.
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Thank you so much. I will call them at 11pm my time tonight. As soon as they open. Legend
 
Beat me to it. I was about to say, call them and find out!

I've added you to our spreadsheet, Kiel. And welcome to the Class of OC2015! The spreadsheet contains all of our numbers, hints and tips from those who have successfully got through the interview process, and historical OC data for comparison purposes.
 
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Britsimon said:
Yeah I can see what you mean. However there are some oddball factors.
  • The AOS rate in OC seems to be fairly high (judging by the gap between the calculated quota and the CP visas issued). DV4Roger calculated the AOS rate at 12.3% (based on a few years data).
  • The CP issued was 660 CEAC, 661 official. The AOS cases probably added another 100 visas - let's say 60 cases.
  • Another factor that causes issues is the derivative rate. It changes (grows). People get married (some because of the win), babies are born and so on. So - you can't predict using the derivative rate from the end of year results - you have to use the beginning derivative rate. I can calculate that various ways - but let's just settle on 1.65 (instead of the 1.79 the end of year results would suggest).
  • Then the other factor is density. I don't understand why, but the density in OC seems higher this year. DV2014 was strangely low (max case number was around 3200 for 4215 selectees) and this year appears to be 2306 for 3499 selectees (although as I have said we might not be seeing the last few cases at all). If we use the 1.65 for both years we should have 2555 real cases in 2014 (20% holes) and 2121 cases in 2015 (8% holes)
  • So - Add the 60 to the 592 and then consider the density - so I don't think the non response was quite as high as you think - although it is still high. I calculate 44% non responses for 2014. 652/(1450*0.8).

Now - We know the issued rate at the embassies (average of 63.7%) for those that respond for CP cases (AOS we don't know).
We could take out the CP rate (87%) from the quota and say there are 725 CP visas available or we could assume work with the AOS cases - but I think AOS would have a higher success rate.
We know the derivative rate must be about 1.65.
So the 725 is 440 actual cases at a success rate of 63.7%.
So far that is pretty solid - right?

That means OC will need 690 cases (CP) or 780 cases with AOS (generously) Let's settle on 780 cases and apply the math?

So - how many non responses do you want to add and what density?

780 cases at 92% density = 848 case numbers and apply the non response rate for last year (44%) - that comes to 1514 (a bit healthier than my earlier rough guesstimate). I think this is a more accurate method.

Thoughts?
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This is good stuff. I think the density should be 91% but it doesn't affect things much. Edges it a little closer to 1550.

Are you going to create a spreadsheet that calculates an estimate of all the regional final cut-offs? I think that's a great idea.

It might be possible to estimate the monthly cutoffs now.. visa target minus visas issued divided by the number of remaining months, factor in a catchup and apply the density etc.
 
guestgulkan said:
This is good stuff. I think the density should be 91% but it doesn't affect things much. Edges it a little closer to 1550.

Are you going to create a spreadsheet that calculates an estimate of all the regional final cut-offs? I think that's a great idea.

It might be possible to estimate the monthly cutoffs now.. visa target minus visas issued divided by the number of remaining months, factor in a catchup and apply the density etc.
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I'm working on spreadsheets - but for OC it is pretty much as simple as that post. We don't know the response rate - so that will be the wildcard no matter how neat the spreadsheets are. By the way, the marriage/baby rate is a threat to OC high numbers. A new spouse/baby with a low CN jumps right up the line.

About VB predictions - I'm personally a little disenchanted with that game. It is clear to me that KCC have moved faster in the early months because of the DS260 vaccum. But when will they take a pause to reset that? It's just an emotional rollercoaster with a very temporary payoff and no real benefit (unlike the end numbers) - so I'll just wait for the official numbers.
 
Does anyone know the tax implications if my husband was to work for his current australian company externally for a while once we arrive in LA and activate our PR status? Does he get taxed in both countries ?
 
SuicideBlonde said:
Does anyone know the tax implications if my husband was to work for his current australian company externally for a while once we arrive in LA and activate our PR status? Does he get taxed in both countries ?
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Yes.

The tax paid in one country is a credit in the other so you don't really get taxed twice. However, the IRS likes to see a complete year of foreign tax returns and because of Australia's oddball mid-year financial year this means you may need to give them two tax returns if they want proof.
 
Blondie, I'm glad you asked that question because I was going to. There's a chance I can stay on my current contract in the US for a while which would be good due to the much higher rates I'm on now.

I was wondering about the speed of processing DS-260 forms, if there was a higher number of family members it would theoretically take longer. Kiel, we went current in Dec but didnt get an interview until Feb. our forms were submitted on 19th July. We never thought the late submission would affect our interview date but it did. Maybe having 4 in the family also impacted the delay?
 
Hi all, I'm writing from my hotel in LA! My POE experience was the most simple and smooth part of this whole process. I arrived at LAX and went to customs and there was signs for the PR/US Citizen line or Visitor line, but no sign for 'new immigrants', so I asked a lady and she said to queue in the Visitor line. I handed over my sealed envelope, passport and customs card and the lady didn't even blink twice, she just looked at my passport then said "so you won the lottery" and then took my fingerprints on the electronic fingerprint thing and typed a bunch of stuff into the computer. I had a different address on my customs card to the address I put on my application so she asked which one I wanted my green card sent to then she took me to around to another area and said I needed to do my fingerprints for my green card.

Another guy took my index finger print in ink to go on my green card and got me to sign my name. It's a really small box to sign your name so he let me have two practice runs because as he said, "this will be on your card for the next 10 years". He even asked if I was sure I was ready after the second go, because I think it was a bit shaky but at that point I didn't think my signature was going to be getting any better after a 14 hour flight lol!

Then he opened the sealed envelope, did some stuff on my passport and gave me a piece of paper which I've attached a photo of and said "welcome to the USA", basically told me what was on the paper and that was it! It was all over in less than 15 minutes. They didn't need any extra photos or documents such as the DS260 or my x-Rays. They said the Green Card would arrive in 3-6 months.

So that's that! I kind of can't believe this process is finally over after first being selected May 2013 for DV2014 and not progressing, getting selected again for DV 2015 and finally attaining permanent residency! I will say I had a huge grin on my face walking out of customs :D
 

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Hi All,

Just wanted to pop in here and say hello. I got selected this year for the first time.

I was sent to this forum by someone who got selected last year and is now living in the USA.

My wife and I have applied for the last 7 or 8 years at least and finally got selected with a high 700 number. We aren't current yet, but that should change in the next day or so.

We got our DS-260 off in early July, so I think everything should be good to go, even with the slow processing time.

Mostly I just wanted to say thanks to all that are sharing their experiences and findings, it's been incredibly helpful and certainly puts my mind at ease. I've been lurking here since June and have found it pretty exciting reading about people arriving.

My wife and I are both media professionals in our early 30's, so we're really excited about the opportunity to move to LA and do stuff that just isn't possible in Aus.
 
Congrats Essey!! Sorry I didn't say it earlier but I didn't get a chance because you were on that plane so fast!!!!

Great POE story, keep in touch.

Hi and welcome to Gandt and the others that are new!
 
Thanks for the facebook link. We've got to keep it all hush, hush at the moment, but I will join up once/if the cat is out of the bag.
 
Essey said:
Hi all, I'm writing from my hotel in LA! My POE experience was the most simple and smooth part of this whole process. I arrived at LAX and went to customs and there was signs for the PR/US Citizen line or Visitor line, but no sign for 'new immigrants', so I asked a lady and she said to queue in the Visitor line. I handed over my sealed envelope, passport and customs card and the lady didn't even blink twice, she just looked at my passport then said "so you won the lottery" and then took my fingerprints on the electronic fingerprint thing and typed a bunch of stuff into the computer. I had a different address on my customs card to the address I put on my application so she asked which one I wanted my green card sent to then she took me to around to another area and said I needed to do my fingerprints for my green card.

Another guy took my index finger print in ink to go on my green card and got me to sign my name. It's a really small box to sign your name so he let me have two practice runs because as he said, "this will be on your card for the next 10 years". He even asked if I was sure I was ready after the second go, because I think it was a bit shaky but at that point I didn't think my signature was going to be getting any better after a 14 hour flight lol!

Then he opened the sealed envelope, did some stuff on my passport and gave me a piece of paper which I've attached a photo of and said "welcome to the USA", basically told me what was on the paper and that was it! It was all over in less than 15 minutes. They didn't need any extra photos or documents such as the DS260 or my x-Rays. They said the Green Card would arrive in 3-6 months.

So that's that! I kind of can't believe this process is finally over after first being selected May 2013 for DV2014 and not progressing, getting selected again for DV 2015 and finally attaining permanent residency! I will say I had a huge grin on my face walking out of customs :D
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Awesomeness! Welcome to the US!
 
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