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Dv 2014 winners from Sri Lanka

Stalin23

Stalin23

Member
Im a dv lottery winner from Sri Lanka
C/N-162**
According to the extracted data most of the Sri Lankan case numbers are above 10000.
I have seen only 100 Sri Lankan case numbers below 8900.
Last year we had 806 winners and 158 case numbers got interview but this year we have 1616 winners but so far around 100 case numbers went interview so this there may be 300 case numbers for Sri Lanka....only 33% went interview this year for SL...so KCC have to move the rest of Asia So in the next VB we can anticipate good jump for Asia with a special cut off for Iran or Nepal.
 
Nepal and Iran have totally dominated AS this year, so really AS won't jump until those countries are limited or hit the 7% barrier.
 
My friend... What do u think about next vb?
But i personally i think there should be cutoff for Nepal and Iran or both otherwise asia will get current...if not Asia will end up with around 12500 and KCC won't fill up quota for Asia.
 
Stalin23 said:
My friend... What do u think about next vb?
But i personally i think there should be cutoff for Nepal and Iran or both otherwise asia will get current...if not Asia will end up with around 12500 and KCC won't fill up quota for Asia.
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Yeah, you are seeing it correctly. KCC made a mistake in not limiting Nepal and Iran earlier on. Until they are at their limits, the rest of Asia waits, and lots of interview bandwidth goes unused.
 
Britsimon said:
Yeah, you are seeing it correctly. KCC made a mistake in not limiting Nepal and Iran earlier on. Until they are at their limits, the rest of Asia waits, and lots of interview bandwidth goes unused.
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Unless KCC is going to let ASIA current next VB and limit both Nepal and Iran. Other than that, some AS visas will LOST this year.
 
SKYSTAR said:
Unless KCC is going to let ASIA current next VB and limit both Nepal and Iran. Other than that, some AS visas will LOST this year.
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Nepal should hit the wall soon - and perhaps Iran after that. THat would speed ASia up, but we only have two VBs left.
 
Sometimes they will put both countries into a special cutoff and AS will be current for next 2 months.
My prediction for Asia in the next VB
Asia CURRENT...
Nepal 10200
Iran 9900
 
Stalin23 said:
Sometimes they will put both countries into a special cutoff and AS will be current for next 2 months.
My prediction for Asia in the next VB
Asia CURRENT...
Nepal 10200
Iran 9900
Click to expand...
This what Im expecting. AS will be current ,Nepal and Iran will have a limit. NO ONE KNOWS EXCEPT KCCo_O.
 
Logically speaking, it will not go "current" in August knowing we still have a lot of selectee from Rest of Asia. It will be a interview scheduling nightmare if it goes current with a huge selectees waiting for it. Let say, Rest of Asia still have 3000 selectees waiting for interview, how would they schedule it if they don't have 3000 slots a month. That's why the cut off are for. I would think even Nepal or Iran have a special cut off on the 11th month, it will still not going to "current" yet. Having said all this, Aug cut off is very crucial for Asia.
 
Hello Britsimon & other 2014 Winners!. I'm also waiting to see what will happen.

Experts and winners!!!

Please share your interview experience in Sri Lanka.
 
My prediction is as follows:

1st to 10th month: KCC running at roughly 10% of regional quota each month.
11th month: KCC will claims back all the "no show" and AP selectees from the 10th month.
12th month: KCC will use the NACARA quota because by last month of the fiscal year, KCC will know how many visa that they can claim back from NACARA.

So, I would expect a bigger jump for 11th and 12th month because it will have much more visa slot then the first 10 months. From CEAC data for Asia, you can see that it has roughly 10k selectees scheduled for interviews and so I would expect to see 14k selectees interview scheduled by Sept (2k AP, 1k no show and 1k NACARA). AP clearing is coming in by Sept, it will be a competition between Sept interviewees and AP selectees.
 
Kayend said:
My prediction is as follows:

1st to 10th month: KCC running at roughly 10% of regional quota each month.
11th month: KCC will claims back all the "no show" and AP selectees from the 10th month.
12th month: KCC will use the NACARA quota because by last month of the fiscal year, KCC will know how many visa that they can claim back from NACARA.

So, I would expect a bigger jump for 11th and 12th month because it will have much more visa slot then the first 10 months. From CEAC data for Asia, you can see that it has roughly 10k selectees scheduled for interviews and so I would expect to see 14k selectees interview scheduled by Sept (2k AP, 1k no show and 1k NACARA). AP clearing is coming in by Sept, it will be a competition between Sept interviewees and AP selectees.
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Yeah, that is making a lot of sense. Your point about the no show and AP cases in the 11th month is particularly interesting. Have you seen evidence or statements that support your theory?
 
I am not sure about other regions but I was analyzing Asia and I found out from 1st to 10th month, it has roughly 1k visa slots. In Asia we know it is about 10k regional quota, so KCC is allocating about 10% each month. I expect KCC to claim back no show and AP slots from the previous months but it never happen for Asia. So, the question is when KCC will claim back those slots. By right, KCC should put those unused visa slots back to the pool but it never happen until now. It have to happen either in 11th or 12th month.

I think other regions should be similar because if you look at OC, we should expect a much bigger jump as it progress if KCC claim back the high Fiji denial cases and again it never happen. So, I have a good reason to believe this is the model that KCC is executing.

I hope I am right and in 2 weeks time we will know whether this theory make sense or a complete crap.
 
Kayend said:
I am not sure about other regions but I was analyzing Asia and I found out from 1st to 10th month, it has roughly 1k visa slots. In Asia we know it is about 10k regional quota, so KCC is allocating about 10% each month. I expect KCC to claim back no show and AP slots from the previous months but it never happen for Asia. So, the question is when KCC will claim back those slots. By right, KCC should put those unused visa slots back to the pool but it never happen until now. It have to happen either in 11th or 12th month.

I think other regions should be similar because if you look at OC, we should expect a much bigger jump as it progress if KCC claim back the high Fiji denial cases and again it never happen. So, I have a good reason to believe this is the model that KCC is executing.

I hope I am right and in 2 weeks time we will know whether this theory make sense or a complete crap.
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Well the theory could make sense and KCC still do something else - they just don't seem to be paying attention to what is going on...
 
Britsimon said:
Yeah, that is making a lot of sense. Your point about the no show and AP cases in the 11th month is particularly interesting. Have you seen evidence or statements that support your theory?
Click to expand...
Simon I gave an evidence about the non show-up cases! On the status check website its state clearly that wintner can check their status up to 30th june, so I presume after this date no one will be able to reschedule for a come-back!

The only thing that holds me to make a higher cutoff prediction for AS is that iran progression! I'm not sure wether they are really maxing-out at 8500 range...
If so I will readjust my final cut-off for asia 18500 to 1900.
 
vladek said:
Simon I gave an evidence about the non show-up cases! On the status check website its state clearly that wintner can check their status up to 30th june, so I presume after this date no one will be able to reschedule for a come-back!

The only thing that holds me to make a higher cutoff prediction for AS is that iran progression! I'm not sure wether they are really maxing-out at 8500 range...
If so I will readjust my final cut-off for asia 18500 to 1900.
Click to expand...


So according to your prediction of 18-19000, do you think next VB for August will have more or around at least 3k jump???
 
vladek said:
Simon I gave an evidence about the non show-up cases! On the status check website its state clearly that wintner can check their status up to 30th june, so I presume after this date no one will be able to reschedule for a come-back!

The only thing that holds me to make a higher cutoff prediction for AS is that iran progression! I'm not sure wether they are really maxing-out at 8500 range...
If so I will readjust my final cut-off for asia 18500 to 1900.
Click to expand...

The 30th June date was (I believe) related to 2nd draws. However, I do not believe that someone who found they were seleceted on July 1 would be restricted in some way from submitting their forms. So - as long as they could get their forms processed they could (in theory) get interviews right up to Sept 30th.

About Iran. Their response and success rates are lower than Nepal and the number of entrants are probably about the same (based on 2013 numbers). That means density between the two countries is about the same, and selectees is about the same BUT Nepal will hit the 7% limit before Iran.
 
I dont think neither nepal nor iran hit the 7% limit. The prediction of nepalese and Iranian cutoff was absolutely proved the wrong, you all were said kcc will keep both countries in upcoming month before VB publish, you will estimate such things upto sep 30.....lol
Recent statistical data did show that Iranian ppls are already got their second letter (almost all) and maximum cases are APs so, I dont think Iran will hit the country limit. As you all have mentioned about separate cutoff from initials for Nepal, did prove your assumptions false, you are still saying nepal will hit the limit 7% soon.....looooool...you are totally wrong, approx 80 percen of nepalese had already got second letter and only 20 percent are waiting that means 700 nepalese are waiting for 2nd letter. so, I think both the countries never hit the counry limit for sure.
Besides this, research showed that nearly 75 percent of total selectee didnot get their second letter from AS. so, be analyse positive for Iranian and nepalese cases as well as ROA. I might be wrong, there will be current in the next VB to meet the regional limit for sure.
Thanks guys for your false prediction, we were disappointed in every months before VB published and you are again saying limit/limit/limit/limit for Nepal and Iran, you will say till sep 30....lol...so, I will gotta chance in Aug (12k CN) due to your pessimistic view(inversely related your prediction) lol
noone knows what will be next except kcc, dont think you are the expert from one year study,kcc have loads of knowledge so they do publish in logical and scientific way and we must accept their decisions.
Dont take it negative, thanks
 
So the next month will be CURRENT ????????????? Small problem, What is the main expectation from the police clearance ? Address confirmation or to check whether we are legally punished??
 
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