DV-2014 Low case number

[Britsimon]

On the basis of CEAC data asian case no 1 to 1681


Nepalese issue , ready & administrative processing total case no. 346 and total family members no. 638

Nepalese refused total case no. 11 and total family members no. 21

so it is possible to get chance to 15K for Nepal

Are you saying that Nepal case numbers might be distributed up to CN 15k? Or are you saying that Nepal numbers up to 15k have a chance for interview?

Well I just had a look at the data. If we look up to January (CN 3000), there are 1180 family members interviewing at KDU. Of those, 948 have been issued, 130 are in AP, 41 at ready and 26 refused.

There is no reason to think the saturation of Nepal cases (40% so far) will stop below about 10k. In the first 3k they will have issued over 1000 visas (most of those APs and some readies will become issued) So assuming the rate continues, they would have reached the 7% limit (between 3500 and 3850) before CN12XXX. So that might vary a little - but I struggle to see how Nepal will be ok up to 15k without hitting the country limit.

 

[Kayend]

Well I just had a look at the data. If we look up to January (CN 3000), there are 1180 family members interviewing at KDU. Of those, 948 have been issued, 130 are in AP, 41 at ready and 26 refused.

There is no reason to think the saturation of Nepal cases (40% so far) will stop below about 10k. In the first 3k they will have issued over 1000 visas (most of those APs and some readies will become issued) So assuming the rate continues, they would have reached the 7% limit (between 3500 and 3850) before CN12XXX. So that might vary a little - but I struggle to see how Nepal will be ok up to 15k without hitting the country limit.

Yes, if the same pattern continue up to 14k for Nepal, Nepal visas will be exhausted by 10k or so but Rayme mentioned that not much Nepalese in the range from 5k to 9k. If that is true it might push it to around 14k or so. Anyway, next VB and CEAC data by end of this month will definitely tell us something for us to make better prediction for Asia. DV14 for Asia is so difficult to predict with the info we have up to this point.

 

[Britsimon]

Yes, if the same pattern continue up to 14k for Nepal, Nepal visas will be exhausted by 10k or so but Rayme mentioned that not much Nepalese in the range from 5k to 9k. If that is true it might push it to around 14k or so. Anyway, next VB and CEAC data by end of this month will definitely tell us something for us to make better prediction for Asia. DV14 for Asia is so difficult to predict with the info we have up to this point.

If my understanding of the draw process is correct, the saturation of Nepal and Iran cases will stay roughly the same until their draw limit is hit. The saturation comes from the sheer volume of entries so that 4 out of every 10 selectees are Nepalese, 4 are Iranian and the other two are from somewhere else. I don't think there is a concentration for any other reason - so I can't find a good reason to believe the dip in Nepalese selectee saturation between 5 and 9k.

 

[biratnagar]

Yes, if the same pattern continue up to 14k for Nepal, Nepal visas will be exhausted by 10k or so but Rayme mentioned that not much Nepalese in the range from 5k to 9k. If that is true it might push it to around 14k or so. Anyway, next VB and CEAC data by end of this month will definitely tell us something for us to make better prediction for Asia. DV14 for Asia is so difficult to predict with the info we have up to this point.

Yes , i agree that not much Nepalese in the range from 5k to 9k. and maximum dense 11000 t0 13999. so my predict upto 13000 hit country limit.