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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

House409 said:
My understanding is that 50,000 visas are made available for the DV program, but it does not prevent DOS to use some of the additional 5,000 visas normally set aside for NACARA. I am just wondering if there were less and less visas used for NACARA these past few years and that we are getting close each year to the 55,000 visas when adding DV+NACARA (except for the abnormal DV12). In this equation, if NACARA visas are reduced, DV visa numbers increase. Even if it is a small amount, it could easily add up to 5-6%, which would increase the cutoff of those interviewed by the same figure.
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The numbers of visas used for NACARA indeed was decreasing in recent years, - from 2009 to 2012 it decreased from 4764 to 2803. However, DV + NACARA was not monotonica
2009 52800
2010 55017 - beyond the limit
2011 54342
2012 37266
 
House409 said:
Hey Kayend, how did you extrapolate the progression for DV14 numbers? Did you just made a linear extrapolation based on the fact that the 105/125 DV14 winners will get interviewed, assuming in DV13, all 105k winners were finally current (this would be contrary to Raevsky assumption that not all 105k winners were notified and interviewed)? Or did you use another method?
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Yes, he did linear interpolation until July. For August and September he assummed contstant 10% increase rate so that it would get to 27000 max.
 
this look much more realistic approach than ravesky

kayend said:
Hi Guys,

I use the DV-13 progress as an indicator to calculate the progress of DV-14 for Asia. In order for Asia in DV-14 to reach 27k case number, it needs the starting case # of 4300 as compare to 1900 in DV-13. This is just a simple simulation based on DV-13 with all the variables being the same as DV-13. The actual progress might be very different, so don't take the number too seriously. :) I just wanted to see how it progress in DV-14 taking into account with the same variables as DV-13.

Code: 
%	Month	Cut Off Progress
23.68	10	4300	1018
14.89	11	5318	791
25.92	12	6109	1583
26.47	1	7692	2036
20.93	2	9728	2036
25.48	3	11764	2997
20.3	4	14761	2996
13.37	5	17757	2374
10.67	6	20131	2147
10	7	22278	2227
10	8	24505	2450
	9	26955

Let hope it will make a good start in 3 weeks time (Sept VB).
Click to expand...

this seems more likely to happen, we have 20 days to see if estimation for October is right :)
 
Hi kayend,

Can you please do the estimate of progress for EU region too? You can assume the highest case number is 50K (i saw somewhere), I don't know there is any bigger than this number.

Thanks

kayend said:
Hi Guys,

I use the DV-13 progress as an indicator to calculate the progress of DV-14 for Asia. In order for Asia in DV-14 to reach 27k case number, it needs the starting case # of 4300 as compare to 1900 in DV-13. This is just a simple simulation based on DV-13 with all the variables being the same as DV-13. The actual progress might be very different, so don't take the number too seriously. :) I just wanted to see how it progress in DV-14 taking into account with the same variables as DV-13.

Code: 
%	Month	Cut Off Progress
23.68	10	4300	1018
14.89	11	5318	791
25.92	12	6109	1583
26.47	1	7692	2036
20.93	2	9728	2036
25.48	3	11764	2997
20.3	4	14761	2996
13.37	5	17757	2374
10.67	6	20131	2147
10	7	22278	2227
10	8	24505	2450
	9	26955

Let hope it will make a good start in 3 weeks time (Sept VB).
Click to expand...
 
I tried to put the progress rate for Asia from DV-06 to DV-13, it looks like it is very unpredictable. Even the max case # varies from 10k to 80k. If you look at the year 2006 to 2011 where Bangladesh still in the picture, it is still varies a lot in term of progress rate. That's make it so difficult to predict DV-14, just based on DV-13 or even from DV-06 to DV-13. Following is the progress rate from 2006 to 2013 (Asia).

Code: 
Month	2013%	2012%	2011%	2010%	2009%	2008%	2007%	2006%
10	23.68	25	18.88	2.85	82.75	66.66	67.74	70
11	14.89	50	8.41	14.58	29.24	35.71	34.61	47.05
12	25.92	23.33	14.65	14.84	21.16	28.42	8.57	24
1	26.47	29.18	11.65	11.34	32.53	13.11	0	25.8
2	20.93	12.97	15.82	13.74	20	14.13	17.1	20.51
3	25.48	20.74	11.91	13.33	31.81	15.55	15.16	13.82
4	20.3	24.23	22.07	20.58	31.03	15.38	13.65	14.01
5	13.37	0	21.7	19.2	32.67	13.33	16.73	9.83
6	10.67	0	18.09	20.2	0	12.6	13.97	7.83
7	0	0	17.69	22.12	0	0	0	6.57
8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

0 indicate current.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
scusyxx said:
Hi kayend,

Can you please do the estimate of progress for EU region too? You can assume the highest case number is 50K (i saw somewhere), I don't know there is any bigger than this number.

Thanks
Click to expand...

Here you go. This is for Europe but don't take it to seriously. As I said the progress rate is very unpredictable so maybe you can use this info and adjust it with the actual progress in coming months to have a feeling when your case # will be current.

Code: 
%	Month	Cut Off	Progress
22.8	10	6600	1504
32.14	11	8104	2604
18.37	12	10708	1967
22.37	1	12675	2835
20.89	2	15510	3240
41.04	3	18750	7695
20.35	4	26445	5381
12.72	5	31826	4048
6.45	6	35874	2313
15	7	38187	5728
15	8	43915	6587
15	9	50502	7575

Enjoy. :)
 
Does anyone know what is the highest DV14EU case number ever recorded in a forum so far? What about highest CNs for other regions?
 
kayend said:
Here you go. This is for Europe but don't take it to seriously. As I said the progress rate is very unpredictable so maybe you can use this info and adjust it with the actual progress in coming months to have a feeling when your case # will be current.

Code: 
%	Month	Cut Off	Progress
22.8	10	6600	1504
32.14	11	8104	2604
18.37	12	10708	1967
22.37	1	12675	2835
20.89	2	15510	3240
41.04	3	18750	7695
20.35	4	26445	5381
12.72	5	31826	4048
6.45	6	35874	2313
15	7	38187	5728
15	8	43915	6587
15	9	50502	7575

Enjoy. :)
Click to expand...

If the task for KCC was to squeeze the processing for all the Case Numbers into the year, then I would agree these estimates would make sense. However, since the intent is to issue the 50k visas (which is more likely to happen before some max numbers are reached), then these estimates don't make sense to me.

Kayend, I realise you presented this as an exercise - I don't want to be overly pessimistic, but people also need realistic information to be able to plan. Europe will get around 16k visas (including spouses and children).
 
I've seen somebody mentioning 58k in Russia. Will try to look for that info. I'm not sure if it was on this forum or my country forum.

Edit: DV2014 that is.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
britsimon,

Do 125k selectees include spouses and children?

britsimon said:
If the task for KCC was to squeeze the processing for all the Case Numbers into the year, then I would agree these estimates would make sense. However, since the intent is to issue the 50k visas (which is more likely to happen before some max numbers are reached), then these estimates don't make sense to me.

Kayend, I realise you presented this as an exercise - I don't want to be overly pessimistic, but people also need realistic information to be able to plan. Europe will get around 16k visas (including spouses and children).
Click to expand...
 
scusyxx said:
britsimon,

Do 125k selectees include spouses and children?
Click to expand...

I don't believe so - although there is some disagreement about that. For me though it is clear because you can look up Case Numbers on CEAC and you will find DV2013 numbers with one case number and multiple derivities. So number 199 01 for the winner, 199 02 for the spouse and 199 03 for the child. To me - that is VERY clear.
 
britsimon said:
If the task for KCC was to squeeze the processing for all the Case Numbers into the year, then I would agree these estimates would make sense. However, since the intent is to issue the 50k visas (which is more likely to happen before some max numbers are reached), then these estimates don't make sense to me.

Kayend, I realise you presented this as an exercise - I don't want to be overly pessimistic, but people also need realistic information to be able to plan. Europe will get around 16k visas (including spouses and children).
Click to expand...

Well anything can happen. I am not trying to predict anything. I am just trying to see how it turn out for dv14 with the same progress rate as dv13. Initially, I tried to analyze the data available from the public but after a few days on it I give up because too many unknown with the public data just doesn't give me any meaning analysis. I tried to use linear progression analysis but the data is just too wide and a lot of outlier too. So, it just doesn't make sense to me. Maybe I am not good at it. Anyway, after this exercise my conclusion is that whatever assumption and prediction we made will not accurately predict the outcome of dv14. Let wait and see how it progress and enjoy the hope we have right now. :)
 
kayend said:
Well anything can happen. I am not trying to predict anything. I am just trying to see how it turn out for dv14 with the same progress rate as dv13. Initially, I tried to analyze the data available from the public but after a few days on it I give up because too many unknown with the public data just doesn't give me any meaning analysis. I tried to use linear progression analysis but the data is just too wide and a lot of outlier too. So, it just doesn't make sense to me. Maybe I am not good at it. Anyway, after this exercise my conclusion is that whatever assumption and prediction we made will not accurately predict the outcome of dv14. Let wait and see how it progress and enjoy the hope we have right now. :)
Click to expand...

LOL - yeah. Enjoy the hope and learn to be patient!!!
 
franko said:
I've seen somebody mentioning 58k in Russia. Will try to look for that info. I'm not sure if it was on this forum or my country forum.

Edit: DV2014 that is.
Click to expand...

That would be very interesting to know, because that would mean there are almost 75% more notified numbers compared to DV13 (with the highest numbers being in the 31k-33k range). They have selected 20% more entrants in DV14, but still, notifying 75% more applicants is a huge jump. Unless there are much more holes in between winning CN numbers, there is something that does not add up. Raevsky has some theory about this. Nobody knows yet for sure, but the first data in the CEAC system should give us some valuable information.
 
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