Dv 2014 european winers here
- Thread starter ceskhermina
- Start date
So the interviews starts from October ? Since i have the other end of CN (EU50XXX) , then its means an interview in around a year ? if ever....
I'd like to know if there is nayone here who had a high cn and didnt get an interview.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Look - no one really knows with certainty what will happen it depends how many gaps in the numbers there are, how many people get rejected or simply don't follow up. But yeah with a 50XXX number you would not expect an interview before August/September 2014, and perhaps never (sorry, just my opinion). Because it will be so late, you'll have plenty of opportunity to watch the visa bulletins and keep your fingers crossed. Good luck!
Raevsky got banned so i dont know how much we can rely on his knowledge.
Furthermore last year , my region filled only 2 000 slots out of 3500 available. I cant quite figure out if i only compete with my region or the whole Europe
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Raevsky got banned so i dont know how much we can rely on his knowledge.
Furthermore last year , my region filled only 2 000 slots out of 3500 available. I cant quite figure out if i only compete with my region or the whole Europe
When you say 3500 available are you referring to the rule that is no one country can get more than 7% of the total visas available? If so - yes that would be the maximum a country could get BUT the allocation is within the region (Europe) so the actual number a country gets allocated depends on the order of individual cases. The region could hit its allocation way before the country gets to the 7% number.
So it's the faster the better ? Although many countries can participate it can end up as a mostly Ukraine way to immigrate (like last year where they were the majority ) ? For instance if all the slots available for Europe will be filled with citizens of a single country then they will be "The Europe" ?
True that , there is over 120 000 winners and around 50 000 visas. The chances of getting an interview purely based on statistics are over 40 % , while already being a winner had it's odds of 1-2 %. For me , we are already past the hard part.
True that , there is over 120 000 winners and around 50 000 visas. The chances of getting an interview purely based on statistics are over 40 % , while already being a winner had it's odds of 1-2 %. For me , we are already past the hard part.
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There are 125,000 winning entries and 50,000 visas available. With 1.6-1.8 visa applicants per winning entries, that makes only 27,000-31,000 winning entries that will get visas. Looks more like 21-25% of chance. But, many winning entries will not proceed further, or will be disqualified, and some will be denied after the interviews. How much that will? We don't know. But I guess a valid winning entry has more than 50% chance of getting a visa. It is all about how low your CN number is. 2014EU1 has close to 100% of chance, 2014EU55000 a little less...
+1
Furthermore last year , my region filled only 2 000 slots out of 3500 available. I cant quite figure out if i only compete with my region or the whole Europe
You mean your country? Because your region is Europe. I was in the opinion that countries have quotas, but the law clearly states that people compete for the same regional quota. There is no mention of country quotas.
Obviously not every country can fill 3500, there are only about 16K visas available to whole Europe!
Every country has a specific number of selectees. If a country has 1000 selectees, chances are about 500 visas will be given, that's what we see from previous years. This is because some don't qualify, some don't care and some don't become current in time. Now, this year it may be little different because of 125K selectees notified.
1- You are assuming there are no gaps in 125K case numbers.
2- Regions have different quotas.
3- Nobody knows anything about the distribution of case numbers in each region.
Following are the only things we can assume based on past years and this year:
1- There could be about 16K visas available to Europe.
2- There could be about 30K selectees for Europe. But this year, this number could be 36K-39K based on 125K selected.
3- Every winning entry could have about 1.6 applicants (could be little different for Europe).
4- There are gaps in between case numbers.
6- Highest CN for Europe is ????? (say 55K).
From this point on, anything else is pure speculation. Based on 1,2,3, one could say EU winners have about 26-28% chance but that would not be accurate either, because chances are obviously different for low vs. high case numbers. As long as one doesn't know anything about how the CN are distributed, there is no way of knowing who will become current when.
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Yeah i meant my country. I found info somewhere that last year there was 2k interviews in the embassy with max. 3.5k cap per country.. I dont know if im thinkiing correctly but even if a country has a lot of selectees and quite low numbers they can still take only 3.5k visas from the total of 50k.
3500 is the maximum limit a country can get, it does not mean any country can get it.
If a country has 1000 selectees and 1.6 applicants per selectee, they can possibly get at most 1600 visas obviously. What I'm saying is; even that does not look likely because number of selectees vs. number of visas issued has been about 2:1 so it'd be like 500 visas for that country.
And it makes sense because DoS picks about twice as many selectees as visas available (except this year) and they wouldn't give visas to all selectees in one country or few countries all the way up to 3500 or whatever the actual number (like 1600 above) and starve all other countries. They need to maintain that 2:1 ratio in all countries.
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Does it mean my chances depend not only on the value of rejected selectess but also on the number of selectees from my country or from the whole region ?
Which quota? In 2011, 51,118 visas were issued. In 2012, 34,463 visas were issued due to the canceled lottery mishap. For Germany, it was 860/1895 in 2011, and 595/1709 in 2012, again due to the mishap.
Your chances depend on how many people got the visa in your region before your interview. Nothing else.
EDIT: Well, that's not accurate. Let me rephrase: you'll have a chance to get a visa, if people have not already depleted your region's quota before your interview.
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Yes, agreed. We are saying the same thing. Because there will be gaps, the odds will likely be much higher than 21-25%. Sorry if I was not clear enough.