Don,t worry,It will pass!reasons:

OK, this is what we need to do.

1) Lamar Smith and Tancredo will 99.99 % vote against the bill with Immigration provision. They have a rep to protect. Their USP is their opposition to Immigration. This is what differentiate them and what they are known for.

2) We need to concentrate on Pro Immigration democrats. We need to pressurise them. Being from the Houston area I know both Congressman Sheila Jackson Lee and Al Green say they are pro immigration but they voted against the bill because of the other clauses. We need to approach and find out if they will do something.

3) We need to see i any of the 14 Republicans who voted against the bill will change their mind.

Lets wait and see. I hpoe it will pass - so im cautiously optimistic. If media creates hype on this issue it may actually be against our interest as Lamar and Tancredo will be put in a spot and definitely vote against. Plus there are 2 congressman who were absent today from voting, do we know what their political leanings are ?
 
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Bills

Guys this is all speculation
but nevertheless makes interesting reading. First thing we need to do is find who is on the conference committee and what their immigration voting records are, then we need to work on the moderates at conference committee and try to have 8001/8002 provisions in the final version.
I have always stated I think that the house could turn out to be the big spoiler in all this. Unfortunately the democrats are now fired up and unified as they sense some division amongst the republican ranks, so irrespective of what is in that bill they will vote against it, that is sad since some pro immigrant democratic congressmen will now vote against this bill in ANY form.
Now there is going to be a lot of horsetrading behind the scenes, and if you all notice the bill was delayed to this week since house leaders are always checking votes before they bring it to a vote and they did not feel they had the votes last week. That would explain why whichever blessed soul is behind these provisions did not have someone bring an ammendment to the congressional floor, they clearly decided to work on conference committee instead. (I read somewhere that it was some microsoft lobbyist who worked closely with Sen Specter's office). The razor thin margin of passage in the house works against us, that allows the anti immigrant congressmen more leverage than they would have otherwise had, this is the real problem, Tancredo and company's powers are magnified by the democrats unification against it in ANY form. However depending on how much the lobby is they may be able to find a way of convincing some of the moderate republicans who initially voted against the original bill to this time vote for it.
I believe Bush is sure to sign it since he is pro business and anyway he cannot risk gridlock at this time with his waning political fortunes, he needs to demonstrate something is going right with the peoples business.
Any thoughts?
 
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congress also passesd senates!

On the morning of November 18, 2005, the U.S. House of Representatives (House) passed its version of the Budget Reconciliation Bill by a narrow margin. The House then voted to replace the text of the Senate bill with the text of the House bill and passed the Senate bill as well.
©MurthyDotCom
Since the House and Senate have passed different versions of the Senate bill on budget reconciliation, both Houses of Congress must agree on uniform language before a final bill can be sent to the President for his signature. Therefore, we expect that the House and Senate will have a conference committee to agree on language for the final bill to contain identical provisions. It is not clear what immigration-related provisions, if any, will survive the conference committee.
©MurthyDotCom
Despite the holiday season when lawmakers generally recess, it is important to have budget reconciliation. Therefore, it is likely, though not guaranteed, that the conference committee will convene in the next few weeks to being their important work on this bill. Once the committee has agreed on the final provisions in the Bill, the final version will need to be approved by the House and Senate before it goes to the President for signature to become law
 
BTW, another 2 or 3 weeks of intense effort is still required according to Attorney Oh who hosts http://www.immigration-law.com

Here is what he said "Because of the differences between the two bills, S. 1932 is expected to the Conference Committee after the Congress returns to the session the second week in December 2005. This means that the businesses, academic community, and immigrant community should focus on the House-Senate conference committee to resolve differences between the S. 1932 as passed by the Senate and the S.1932 as amended by the House. H.R. 4241 which was passed that night is merged into S. 1932 and out of the picture hereon. The Senators and the House members have returned to your community for the next two weeks and it is a golden opportunity for the supports of the original S. 1932 to contact their Congressional delegations in their community during this holiday season. The House Speaker and the GOP majority whips in the Senate and House will play an important role in the conference process."

Again, if you would like help out and/or not sure how this affects you and what you can to help. Please go to http://www.immigration-law.com and look under heading "11/18/2005: House Passed H.R. 4241 by Vote 217-215 at 01:41 a.m. Today" and click on the "Read and help the immigration community's last minute effort"
 
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485 will pass, not sure about visa recapture

I see some commens saying allowing 485 will flood the uscis, this is such a ridiculous comment, if people are not allowed to file 485 then they will not get EAD which will force them to file for H1 extensions, which are again sent to uscis, so whether they apply for 485 or H1 extension its the USCIS which will process them, so my question to the wise ass who keep repeating this stupid assertions that allowing 485 will flood uscis is, based on what do you make this inaccurate suggestion? The one thing that will benefit the majoruty of people is allowing to file 485 and allowing 485 will not effect the final immigration numbers so i am pretty sure this measure will pass.
 
485 will pass, not sure about visa recapture

I see some comments saying allowing 485 will flood the uscis, this is such a ridiculous comment, if people are not allowed to file 485 then they will not get EAD which will force them to file for H1 extensions, which are again sent to uscis, so would this not flood USCIS?, so its better for uscis to allow people to file for 485 which will bring them additional revenue(500$), its also much easier and less time consuming to get EAD extensions than H1 extensions which are more time consuming to process, so whether they apply for 485 or H1 extension its the USCIS which will process them, so my question to the wise ass who keeps repeating this stupid assertions that allowing 485 will flood uscis is, based on what do you make this inaccurate suggestion? The one thing that will benefit the majority of people is allowing to file 485 and allowing 485 will not effect the final immigration numbers so i am pretty sure this measure will pass.
 
485 filling will clog up the already clogged system, recapture would open the clogs

pitha said:
I see some comments saying allowing 485 will flood the uscis, this is such a ridiculous comment, if people are not allowed to file 485 then they will not get EAD which will force them to file for H1 extensions, which are again sent to uscis, so would this not flood USCIS?, so its better for uscis to allow people to file for 485 which will bring them additional revenue(500$), its also much easier and less time consuming to get EAD extensions than H1 extensions which are more time consuming to process, so whether they apply for 485 or H1 extension its the USCIS which will process them, so my question to the wise ass who keeps repeating this stupid assertions that allowing 485 will flood uscis is, based on what do you make this inaccurate suggestion? The one thing that will benefit the majority of people is allowing to file 485 and allowing 485 will not effect the final immigration numbers so i am pretty sure this measure will pass.
Click to expand...
 
iameddie2005 said:
BTW, another 2 or 3 weeks of intense effort is still required according to Attorney Oh who hosts http://www.immigration-law.com

Here is what he said "Because of the differences between the two bills, S. 1932 is expected to the Conference Committee after the Congress returns to the session the second week in December 2005. This means that the businesses, academic community, and immigrant community should focus on the House-Senate conference committee to resolve differences between the S. 1932 as passed by the Senate and the S.1932 as amended by the House. H.R. 4241 which was passed that night is merged into S. 1932 and out of the picture hereon. The Senators and the House members have returned to your community for the next two weeks and it is a golden opportunity for the supports of the original S. 1932 to contact their Congressional delegations in their community during this holiday season. The House Speaker and the GOP majority whips in the Senate and House will play an important role in the conference process."

Again, if you would like help out and/or not sure how this affects you and what you can to help. Please go to http://www.immigration-law.com and look under heading "11/18/2005: House Passed H.R. 4241 by Vote 217-215 at 01:41 a.m. Today" and click on the "Read and help the immigration community's last minute effort"
Click to expand...
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