excellent analysis, paul...
my RD is 2/2002, and i had estimated that cases for that month would be touched anywhere after mid May, which is exactly what your analysis also predicts. (of course, my analysis was much more "seat-of-the-pants"!)
BTW, i am assuming that the years stated in your last post against RD months Feb thru Apr are all '02, rather than '03, '04 and '05. could you please confirm if this was a typo?
thanks, again, bud!