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Choosing the legibility country (Ukraine or Moldova - whats best?)

Carmageddon

Registered Users (C)
Hello!

I was born in Ukraine, so normally I should fill that in.
However, my wife is from Moldova.

I saw today this clause in the instructions:
Was your spouse born in a country whose natives are eligible? If yes, you can claim your
spouse’s country of birth—provided that both you and your spouse are named on the selected
entry, are issued diversity visas, and enter the United States simultaneously


So, first of all please correct me if I am wrong, but I assume that means I CAN claim eligibility based on my wife's country, cant I?
Secondly, what is best statistically to get selected? Ukraine or Moldova? I remember there are different chances to get selected for each country, but I don't know where to find those statistics....


Thanks! and good luck to all :)
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
There is a rule about cross charging to another country in a case like your BUT I believe it is in a case where you were born in an INeligible country and want to claim chargeability to your spouses' country.

Furthermore, there is almost no advantage in doing so in your case. The rules of the lottery say that within a region every country should have the same chance of winning. So because both your possible countries are within a single region there is no difference. Ukraine does typically get more winners and so in theory could hit a 7% country cap faster than Moldova, but I think that is unlikely in any case.

So, I think your reading of the rules might be incorrect in your case and not likely to gain an advantage anyway, so my advice is to just stick with your own individual countries...
 

Carmageddon

Registered Users (C)
Well, I do remember reading that there is a different cap for every country, not only a region - is that wrong?
Also that the cut-off numbers are different for each of them, affecting the chances to be called in for the interview - is that also wrong?

Finally, are you saying that the lottery is between ALL the applications of one region, and not only among their 'countrymen'?
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
Well, I do remember reading that there is a different cap for every country, not only a region - is that wrong?
Also that the cut-off numbers are different for each of them, affecting the chances to be called in for the interview - is that also wrong?

Finally, are you saying that the lottery is between ALL the applications of one region, and not only among their 'countrymen'?


Yes you are wrong in your assumptions.

There is a country cap of 7% of the total global visas - that means no country can receive more than 3500 visas in any one year. However, to get that many visas a country would need something like > 10k selectees. So - even with the 6k Ukraine has this year I doubt they will hit the 7% cap.

There is no other cap per country. The "quota" is set per region (so both your countries are within EU). The chances of winning (being selected) do vary by region but not by country. Case numbers are allocated by region, not country.
 

Qewty

Registered Users (C)
Finally, are you saying that the lottery is between ALL the applications of one region, and not only among their 'countrymen'?

I know that for Australia, we also compete against the countries of New Zealand, Fiji etc (all countries categorized as Oceania). If only it was 7% for just Australia, I would be thrilled! Is this what you mean by your question?

Q
 
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Carmageddon

Registered Users (C)
Kind of what I meant yes, I thought each country completes only inside itself and not against the applicants in the other countries, but britsimon cleared that up very nicely.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
And just to be clear, the 7% is a CAP. It doesn't mean 7% is somehow reserved for each country...
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
Lets hope the programmers of the lottery also noticed that distinction :)

No problem there. The 7% isn't implemented as part of the lottery selection process (where the programmers could screw up - as they did in 2012). The 7% is applied after the fact, i.e. as applications from selectees are being processed. KCC acts as a central coordinator and if a country gets close to or hits the limit then everyone after that point would suddenly not have any way to get a visa.
 

raevsky

Registered Users (C)
I have a little bit different answer to this question.
1. You could take your spouse's country regardless of whether your own country is eligible. You need to realize though that in that case you both need to apply to visas together and have them issued simultaneously. Also, you need to enter US simultaneously. That means if you divorce of one of you does not want to immigrate, the other one would not be able as well. Basically, I have same answer for this part of your question
2. I beleive all countries in the same region have the same probability of winning, except a few ones. For Europe those few ones are Ukraine and Uzbekistan. For Africa those are Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria (Nigeria does not participate in DV-15). I also suspect in DV-14 and maybe further Nepal and Iran would be special countries for Asia. What DOS means by the same chance of being selected within the region means BEFORE high numbers are artificially cut off for those special countries. Then, AFTER they are cut off, the chance is very much different.
In DV-13 the chance for Ukraine was about 48% of the chance for Moldova. Max number for Ukraine in CEAC system was about 14682, while for Moldova about 30532.
In DV-14 max number for Ukraine is about 20xxx, while numbers for other countries in Europe go until 54xxx (though I believe only numbers up to 35xxx or so have a chance to get visas)

Unfortunately, I have no idea how exactly it is going to happen in DV-15, but I would assume chance for Ukraine will be smaller too.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
I have a little bit different answer to this question.
1. You could take your spouse's country regardless of whether your own country is eligible. You need to realize though that in that case you both need to apply to visas together and have them issued simultaneously. Also, you need to enter US simultaneously. That means if you divorce of one of you does not want to immigrate, the other one would not be able as well. Basically, I have same answer for this part of your question
2. I beleive all countries in the same region have the same probability of winning, except a few ones. For Europe those few ones are Ukraine and Uzbekistan. For Africa those are Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria (Nigeria does not participate in DV-15). I also suspect in DV-14 and maybe further Nepal and Iran would be special countries for Asia. What DOS means by the same chance of being selected within the region means BEFORE high numbers are artificially cut off for those special countries. Then, AFTER they are cut off, the chance is very much different.
In DV-13 the chance for Ukraine was about 48% of the chance for Moldova. Max number for Ukraine in CEAC system was about 14682, while for Moldova about 30532.
In DV-14 max number for Ukraine is about 20xxx, while numbers for other countries in Europe go until 54xxx (though I believe only numbers up to 35xxx or so have a chance to get visas)

Unfortunately, I have no idea how exactly it is going to happen in DV-15, but I would assume chance for Ukraine will be smaller too.

Interesting information Raevsky.

Just to be clear, the artificial cutoff you are talking about isn't described in law - but it is something you have seen in the evidence (i.e. the max case numbers per country) - correct?

The PDF instructions do describe the other options as being options ONLY when the persons real country is ineligible. I'm sure though you have seen other (more detailed) descriptions of the rule - is that right?
 

raevsky

Registered Users (C)
I also have the latest edition of this spreadsheet with all other EU countries, including Moldova and Uzbekistan. I will upload it in a few days.
 

raevsky

Registered Users (C)
Interesting information Raevsky.

Just to be clear, the artificial cutoff you are talking about isn't described in law - but it is something you have seen in the evidence (i.e. the max case numbers per country) - correct?

The PDF instructions do describe the other options as being options ONLY when the persons real country is ineligible. I'm sure though you have seen other (more detailed) descriptions of the rule - is that right?


Exactly, this has nothing to do with the law. The law is completely silent about this, and probably this is contrary to the law.
Regarding the second question - yes, look into http://www.wolfsdorf.com/articles/DV - Reasons Why Attorney Processing can be Helpful (2011).pdf

(b) Cross-charging from a lower allocation region to a higher allocation region
......................
An Argentine-born national (S. America) who cross-charges to South Africa automatically increases the prospect of
selection by about 2,500%
Mr. Wolfsdorf's numerical calculations are completely wrong, but his legal ideas are right. He is a former President of AILA - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Wolfsdorf
Also, please note that both Argentine and South Africa were always eligible.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
OK - so I hope Carmageddon is still reading and he can take his own view based on your information...

One thing I would say is that Raevsky is pointing out information that is MOST LIKELY more accurate than the instructions BUT if a CO interprets the instructions literally (as I have) then they may not be as well informed as Raevsky. So if they take a decision based on the instructions, then you might find you have an issue.

However, one thing there is that there is an argument that can be made that even mistakes in chargeavbility can be overlooked IF the candidate received no benefit from the mistake. Since their rules say the countries are supposed to have equal chance they would have a hard time saying that a benefit existed, even if it did.
 
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raevsky

Registered Users (C)
The same example here:

http://www.berniewolfsdorf.com/articles/Webinar-DV-1032011.pdf

Cross-charging rom a lower allocation region to a higher allocation region.
Applicant born in Argentina but spouse born in South Africa. South America
got only 2,002 visas allocated whereas Africa got 50,000. With 25 times as
many visas allocated the chance of success increased 25,000% by applying
under the African quota

and here - previous edition of his article

http://forums.immigration.com/showt...ing-DV-lottery-with-Dual-Eligible-Citizenship

(b) Cross-charging from a lower allocation region to a higher allocation region. The DV program has six separate regional lotteries: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America.

A Japanese-born national (Asia) who is married to a European-born national can cross-charge to Europe and automatically increase the prospect of selection by almost 200%. In FY 2004, Europe had 35,868 visas allocated whereas Asia had 19,599 visas allocated (1.8 times as many visas). The statistic here is probably underestimated as Asia almost certainly has more individuals applying.
 

raevsky

Registered Users (C)
However, one thing there is that there is an argument that can be made that even mistakes in chargeavbility can be overlooked IF the candidate received no benefit from the mistake. Since their rules say the countries are supposed to have equal chance they would have a hard time saying that a benefit existed, even if it did.
Yes, this is in fact a good point to present during the interview in case you have a problem. But I heard a number of examples where this cross-cheargeability never raised any questions from consuls - that is from a Russian forum.
 
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