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CEAC data update

Darepit_2000 said:
1564(ready)+1785(nvc)+920(ap)
These number means if all of 1785 member have submitted their 260 form and all 920 in AP will cleared and all of 1564 will taking vissa,asia can take less than 8000 visa optimistically!!!
If it is right so there wont be lack of vissa for asian like 2014!!!so asian have enough time to be cleard until ceptember!
Am i right simon?!!!
Click to expand...

No. On so many levels.

First of all - these are only from the cases up to 5275. More visa bulletins will increase the numbers.
Second, you cannot know how many of the NVC cases have submitted.
The 920 AP cases are mainly Iranian AP cases. It is Iranian AP that is the key to Asia region.
 
@Britsimon this may be lame but help me understand....I am trying to figure out how, say in AF where I am from, they notified 58000 persons yet the CEAC data shows 39266 cases, where did the other 19000 cases "disappear" to? Reason is, I submitted my DS260 after you published the January CEAC data and at that time, I could see my case, even though I had not technically acted on it, so the 39266 could not have been the number that had responded... I know I am missing something, what is it?
 
Imaradaima said:
@Britsimon this may be lame but help me understand....I am trying to figure out how, say in AF where I am from, they notified 58000 persons yet the CEAC data shows 39266 cases, where did the other 19000 cases "disappear" to? Reason is, I submitted my DS260 after you published the January CEAC data and at that time, I could see my case, even though I had not technically acted on it, so the 39266 could not have been the number that had responded... I know I am missing something, what is it?
Click to expand...

If I understand your question correctly, you're confusing number of selectees with number of cases ie more than one person per case number.
 
SusieQQQ said:
If I understand your question correctly, you're confusing number of selectees with number of cases ie more than one person per case number.
Click to expand...
Thank you for that clarification @SusieQQQ , much appreciated, does that mean then that say a case number has a principal and 2 derivatives, will that then be counted as 3 visas towards the 50,000 ?
 
Imaradaima said:
Thank you for that clarification @SusieQQQ , much appreciated, does that mean then that say a case number has a principal and 2 derivatives, will that then be counted as 3 visas towards the 50,000 ?
Click to expand...

Yes that is correct - 50000 - 3. The difference between the 39k cases and the 58k selectees is as Susie points out the derivatives - so each case is around 1.5 people (the principal plus 0.5 of a family member).
 
Hi Simon,

I have a question about the last CEAC extract. There is a lot of "At NVC" status for old CNs. Are those people who did not file DS-260?
Almost 50% of selectees from EU do not file DS-260?
 
szym said:
Hi Simon,

I have a question about the last CEAC extract. There is a lot of "At NVC" status for old CNs. Are those people who did not file DS-260?
Almost 50% of selectees from EU do not file DS-260?
Click to expand...

Yes - that is the people who do not respond (or have responded but their DS260 is still being processed.
 
Hi Britsimon
do you have any idea how many people applied for the DV 2016 from my country in Amman - Jordan / Asia

Regards
Ahmad
 
SusieQQQ said:
Britsimon may correct me but I believe the numbers will only be published after the draw results are done, and will be available in the June visa bulletin (published probably a week or so after the draw is announced).
Click to expand...

The selectees are published in the VB yes - but the entries may not be published for quite some time. Up to very recently we only had 2013 data and now they added 2014 and 2015
 
Britsimon said:
Yes - that is the people who do not respond (or have responded but their DS260 is still being processed.
Click to expand...


Ok. Thanks.

I've done some calculations for EU today. Those calculations are based on the last CEAC extract.

I came up with the following numbers:
EU Family rate = 2,248
Family rate - family members per entrant. I used only cases from range 1-30300, and excluded cases that are "At NVC" or " In transit" (for those cases we do not have proper value). I came up with 6587 records and 14809 people. 14809/6587=2,248. Last year that figure was almost the same, so we can assume it is (and will be) constant.

Avegarge DS File Rate = 45,46%
DS File Rate - how many selectees did file DS-260. DS File Rate = all cases except "At NVC" / all cases. I used only cases from range 1-30300
Below you can find separate numbers

CN range / cn / At NVC / DS File Rate
0-1000 683 409 40,12%
1000-2000 712 427 40,03%
2000-3000 737 437 40,71%
3000-4000 717 404 43,65%
4000-5000 715 435 39,16%
5000-6000 746 454 39,14%
6000-7000 714 429 39,92%
7000-8000 796 481 39,57%
8000-9000 752 452 39,89%
9000-10000 751 459 38,88%
10000-11000 747 436 41,63%
11000-12000 752 444 40,96%
12000-13000 748 442 40,91%
13000-14000 759 459 39,53%
14000-15000 640 393 38,59%
15000-16000 357 172 51,82%
16000-17000 380 201 47,11%
17000-18000 353 176 50,14%
18000-19000 379 193 49,08%
19000-20000 362 170 53,04%
20000-21000 374 177 52,67%
21000-22000 378 176 53,44%
22000-23000 383 196 48,83%
23000-24000 366 153 58,20%
24000-25000 365 174 52,33%
25000-26000 363 200 44,90%
26000-27000 376 202 46,28%
27000-28000 377 204 45,89%
28000-29000 355 161 54,65%
29000-30000 311 147 52,73%

I think those numbers will not change due to new DS-260 beeing filed. It is almost too late to file DS-260. We will only see some DS-260 done processing. How many? I do not know. Maybe someone else can figure it out.

Interview show rate = around 82% (that number can change due to latecomers/old DS-260 done processing).
Interview show rate - % of people who filed DS-260 and attended an interview (some people do file DS but do not show on interview)
Below you can find separate numbers:
CN range / show on inter
0-1000 80,80%
1000-2000 81,18%
2000-3000 78,81%
3000-4000 83,23%
4000-5000 80,36%
5000-6000 84,51%
6000-7000 85,45%
7000-8000 82,97%
8000-9000 78,62%
9000-10000 82,99%
10000-11000 82,80%
11000-12000 78,96%
12000-13000 79,30%
13000-14000 83,77%
14000-15000 87,55%
15000-16000 84,21%
16000-17000 78,89%



EU Succes Rate = 95,33%
EU Succes Rate - how many cases succeded on interview. Succes Rate = Issued / (Issued+Refused). I do not think that number will change significantly.


All factors calculated above are needed to determine the final cut-off number.


How to calculate the final cut-off?
1. We have 21957 selectees in CEAC extract.
2. We apply "Average DS File Rate". 21957 selectees x 45,46% = 9981 <- number of selectees who will file DS-260
3. We apply "Interview show rate". 9981 x 82% = 8184 selectees want to show up on interview
4. We apply "EU Secces Rate". 8184 x 95,33% = 7802 cases succesful on interview.
5. Some selectees have family members, so we have to apply "Family rate". 7802 x 2,248 = 17538 selectees including family members.
6. DV4ROGER calculated that DV-2015 will give about 20.000 visas for EU (I agree with his calculations). So 17.538 is less than 20.000 so EU will be CURRENT this year?


Example of calculation same as as above using higher numbers:
"Average DS File Rate" = 50 %
"Interview show rate" = 90%
1. 21957 selectees
2. 21957 selectees x 50% = 10978 <- number of selectees who will file DS-260
3. 10978 x 90% = 9881 selectees want to show up on interview
4. 9981 x 95,33% = 9515
4. 9515 x 2,248 = 21389 selectees including family members > 20.000 so EU will not be current (we can estimate final cut-off here).

So as you see all now depends on "Average DS File Rate" and "Interview show rate".
Simon - do you have those numbers for DV-2014? Final "Interview show rate" should be simillar. "Average DS File Rate" could be different due to electronic filing this year.

I have to go to sleep now, it late in EU...
Any comments are welcome. I will read them tomorrow.





--
 
szym said:
Ok. Thanks.

I've done some calculations for EU today. Those calculations are based on the last CEAC extract.

I came up with the following numbers:
EU Family rate = 2,248
Family rate - family members per entrant. I used only cases from range 1-30300, and excluded cases that are "At NVC" or " In transit" (for those cases we do not have proper value). I came up with 6587 records and 14809 people. 14809/6587=2,248. Last year that figure was almost the same, so we can assume it is (and will be) constant.

Avegarge DS File Rate = 45,46%
DS File Rate - how many selectees did file DS-260. DS File Rate = all cases except "At NVC" / all cases. I used only cases from range 1-30300
Below you can find separate numbers

CN range / cn / At NVC / DS File Rate
0-1000 683 409 40,12%
1000-2000 712 427 40,03%
2000-3000 737 437 40,71%
3000-4000 717 404 43,65%
4000-5000 715 435 39,16%
5000-6000 746 454 39,14%
6000-7000 714 429 39,92%
7000-8000 796 481 39,57%
8000-9000 752 452 39,89%
9000-10000 751 459 38,88%
10000-11000 747 436 41,63%
11000-12000 752 444 40,96%
12000-13000 748 442 40,91%
13000-14000 759 459 39,53%
14000-15000 640 393 38,59%
15000-16000 357 172 51,82%
16000-17000 380 201 47,11%
17000-18000 353 176 50,14%
18000-19000 379 193 49,08%
19000-20000 362 170 53,04%
20000-21000 374 177 52,67%
21000-22000 378 176 53,44%
22000-23000 383 196 48,83%
23000-24000 366 153 58,20%
24000-25000 365 174 52,33%
25000-26000 363 200 44,90%
26000-27000 376 202 46,28%
27000-28000 377 204 45,89%
28000-29000 355 161 54,65%
29000-30000 311 147 52,73%

I think those numbers will not change due to new DS-260 beeing filed. It is almost too late to file DS-260. We will only see some DS-260 done processing. How many? I do not know. Maybe someone else can figure it out.

Interview show rate = around 82% (that number can change due to latecomers/old DS-260 done processing).
Interview show rate - % of people who filed DS-260 and attended an interview (some people do file DS but do not show on interview)
Below you can find separate numbers:
CN range / show on inter
0-1000 80,80%
1000-2000 81,18%
2000-3000 78,81%
3000-4000 83,23%
4000-5000 80,36%
5000-6000 84,51%
6000-7000 85,45%
7000-8000 82,97%
8000-9000 78,62%
9000-10000 82,99%
10000-11000 82,80%
11000-12000 78,96%
12000-13000 79,30%
13000-14000 83,77%
14000-15000 87,55%
15000-16000 84,21%
16000-17000 78,89%



EU Succes Rate = 95,33%
EU Succes Rate - how many cases succeded on interview. Succes Rate = Issued / (Issued+Refused). I do not think that number will change significantly.


All factors calculated above are needed to determine the final cut-off number.


How to calculate the final cut-off?
1. We have 21957 selectees in CEAC extract.
2. We apply "Average DS File Rate". 21957 selectees x 45,46% = 9981 <- number of selectees who will file DS-260
3. We apply "Interview show rate". 9981 x 82% = 8184 selectees want to show up on interview
4. We apply "EU Secces Rate". 8184 x 95,33% = 7802 cases succesful on interview.
5. Some selectees have family members, so we have to apply "Family rate". 7802 x 2,248 = 17538 selectees including family members.
6. DV4ROGER calculated that DV-2015 will give about 20.000 visas for EU (I agree with his calculations). So 17.538 is less than 20.000 so EU will be CURRENT this year?


Example of calculation same as as above using higher numbers:
"Average DS File Rate" = 50 %
"Interview show rate" = 90%
1. 21957 selectees
2. 21957 selectees x 50% = 10978 <- number of selectees who will file DS-260
3. 10978 x 90% = 9881 selectees want to show up on interview
4. 9981 x 95,33% = 9515
4. 9515 x 2,248 = 21389 selectees including family members > 20.000 so EU will not be current (we can estimate final cut-off here).

So as you see all now depends on "Average DS File Rate" and "Interview show rate".
Simon - do you have those numbers for DV-2014? Final "Interview show rate" should be simillar. "Average DS File Rate" could be different due to electronic filing this year.

I have to go to sleep now, it late in EU...
Any comments are welcome. I will read them tomorrow.





--
Click to expand...

Your "Average DS File Rate" is what I call the response rate. For EU - as I described here there is a marked difference between the rate with U2 countries and the rate without. Not only will their response rate be lower, I imagine their no show rate would be lower. It would be better to divide the region into two groups. Calculate the U2 numbers and then add the non U2 numbers. For the non U2 countries the response rate is going to be higher than 50% and the now show rate will be small (or interview show rate would be over 90%).

Now will EU be current? as I have said several times it is (I believe) the closest to being able to go current of all the regions. The difference between most estimates (40-42) and current (45006) is actually very small (1114 cases of which maybe 600 will have responded). So - it is not such a big stretch to imagine EU going current - and they are within striking distance based on the VB so far. However, I think they will have tried to aim for an August cutoff for EU. So - to go current they need a couple of big jumps OR they need to be on low 40's in August and go current in September. As it is so tight, I imagine we will only know for sure in July....
 
Britsimon said:
Your "Average DS File Rate" is what I call the response rate. For EU - as I described here there is a marked difference between the rate with U2 countries and the rate without. Not only will their response rate be lower, I imagine their no show rate would be lower. It would be better to divide the region into two groups. Calculate the U2 numbers and then add the non U2 numbers. For the non U2 countries the response rate is going to be higher than 50% and the now show rate will be small (or interview show rate would be over 90%).

Now will EU be current? as I have said several times it is (I believe) the closest to being able to go current of all the regions. The difference between most estimates (40-42) and current (45006) is actually very small (1114 cases of which maybe 600 will have responded). So - it is not such a big stretch to imagine EU going current - and they are within striking distance based on the VB so far. However, I think they will have tried to aim for an August cutoff for EU. So - to go current they need a couple of big jumps OR they need to be on low 40's in August and go current in September. As it is so tight, I imagine we will only know for sure in July....
Click to expand...

According to previous year, UU countries have more family members (KEV, THT) - 2.343968
Other countries have - 2.179878

This averages to 2,248 as szym calculated.
 
Hello guys :)
We got our interview date finally, June 9.
But I wanna ask something, my husband, which is the principal applicant, has lived in Itali for several years. We got the police record in Firenze, where he lived from 2004-2010, but later someone told us we have to take the police record in Rome! Is it true? Shall we take an other police record or even contact the embassy for clarification?
Thnx in advance,
Aida
 
Would really EU become current this year? At least unto our 2015EU434xx CN? Give me a piece of hope, my dearest friends...
 
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