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CEAC DATA UP TO 07-03-2014

nes18 said:
ok ok je vous laisse tranquille it's french -- ok ok ana dahiboun it's arabic --- ok ok ani raya7 it's algerian's -- ok ok I would gladly if you're clean by
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Don't do that ! I'm asking you nicely my bro.
Faut pas faire ca mon ami. stp
 
And thanks for your hard work Raf, more than likely oc will cut off at 1600 so while it's been a wasted 12months it's been interesting.
 
nes18 said:
en quoi cela dérange si je t'avais parlais en français ??? ils se sont embrouillé je ne sais pas ni comment ni pourquoi , serte eux parle anglais , quand je m'adresse a quelqu'un en français qu'es qui dérange ?
en fin je quitte.
merci pour tout :)
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Actuallement c'est la regle ici sur le forum, L'anglais est de rigueur!
Is tu veux savoir qlq chose envois moi un msg prive ;)
Et puis som1moms c'est un moderateur sur ce meme forum. Elle peut desactive ton compte!
The rule is to write in english, if you need anything you can PM me.
And moms is moderator.
 
vladek15425 said:
Actuallement c'est la regle ici sur le forum, L'anglais est de rigueur!
Is tu veux savoir qlq chose envois moi un msg prive ;)
Et puis som1moms c'est un moderateur sur ce meme forum. Elle peut desactive ton compte!
The rule is to write in english, if you need anything you can PM me.
And moms is moderator.
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Exactly! If your none English post is for a particular member, send the person a PM! If you're posting on a public site in this forum, it has to be in English. Period!
 
I thought the fact the oc had only issued -500 visas might be a good thing for us with higher numbers but apparently this isn't so :(
 
Apparently it's in line with last year and the 600 visas they issued. I guess the oc has had their quota reduced.
 
Mijoro said:
Apparently it's in line with last year and the 600 visas they issued. I guess the oc has had their quota reduced.
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Well it is 486 with three processing months to go PLUS aos cases. I think aos cases for OC will be higher than the global average, because the E3 visa is so easy to get. So - let's say they have 10% for aos (about 50 so far) it is clear they will reach 600 before and go past 2013. The question is how far past that mark they will allow OC to go. Sadly, I think it will be not far enough for many OC selectees....

Best of luck Mijoro.
 
Britsimon said:
Well it is 486 with three processing months to go PLUS aos cases. I think aos cases for OC will be higher than the global average, because the E3 visa is so easy to get. So - let's say they have 10% for aos (about 50 so far) it is clear they will reach 600 before and go past 2013. The question is how far past that mark they will allow OC to go. Sadly, I think it will be not far enough for many OC selectees....

Best of luck Mijoro.
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Now when we have Ceac dates can you tell please your predictions for September ?
 
deniscarus said:
Now when we have Ceac dates can you tell please your predictions for September ?
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Predictions are over my friend!
Rafik thanks for your effort, we appreciate it!!!
I just checked EU and unfortunately there is no much difference in density among the high CN.
So far we have 14.4k visas issued. We have another 4000 fresh selectees in process form which we will have around 2.9k issued. With 1k AOS the total before Sept. will be 18.3k issued including AOS. So I don't expect a big jump. I really hope I am wrong. For current we will need 3.5k more visas which sounds impossible at the moment!!!
 
I also unfortunately think that none of the regions will go current but we will see a steady jump. KCC have plenty of selectees to fill the 50k (plus NACARA maybe) and from CEAC you can see that they have been issuing similar number of visas each month and they will probably stick to that. But then again as I said before: "It ain't over till the fat lady (living on KFC diet) sings" so who the hell knows :) Stay classy people. Bring on the cutoffs !!! :)
 
First of all embassies capacity, looks like its keeping the same rhythm plus minus, so everything will rely on density for the last chapter.

As I said ,
EU seems to have about 650 cases running for august, with 3800 cut-off that shows clearly that density is low above 35k EU CN range.
I believe by now that EU quota is definitely increased up to 18.5k, even if we can extrapolate about 1500 hidden AOS cases, so I maintain my guess for EU final cut-off at 44k~45k...

AF IMO will definitely get a considerable jump at last, I believe the quota will be around 22.5k because of EU take up. That gives us a final cut-of around 95k, with egypt at around 37k. But because the failure rate in AF has always been high in AF I think KFC will bargain on it, and as well as the ''complicated'' APs. So let's hope for a better cut-off.

AS will drop in its quota at around 8500, because the density is lower just because nepal was put in special cut-off, and the embassies capacity won't allow AS to reach to the 2013 quota 9.5k, final AS cut-off will be at around 18k with lower density and lots of iranians cleared APs will get issued. And nepal will still move up to 10k.

SA also an obvious increase with Guatemala back in DV, the quota will 1100, and final cut-off at 1900.

Oc will stay with the average quota (600) and cut-off will end up at around 1700.

None of my this predictions includes Nacara huge impact that I was expecting, so hopefully if it kicks in, we will see a better result for high CNs.

As you've noticed I'm sticking to my latest predictions with a some slight re adjustments, and I wish I will be positively proven wrong very soon on the last VB.

Best of luck to all my family forum.
 
vladek15425 said:
First of all embassies capacity, looks like its keeping the same rhythm plus minus, so everything will rely on density for the last chapter.

As I said ,
EU seems to have about 650 cases running for august, with 3800 cut-off that shows clearly that density is low above 35k EU CN range.
I believe by now that EU quota is definitely increased up to 18.5k, even if we can extrapolate about 1500 hidden AOS cases, so I maintain my guess for EU final cut-off at 44k~45k...

AF IMO will definitely get a considerable jump at last, I believe the quota will be around 22.5k because of EU take up. That gives us a final cut-of around 95k, with egypt at around 37k. But because the failure rate in AF has always been high in AF I think KFC will bargain on it, and as well as the ''complicated'' APs. So let's hope for a better cut-off.

AS will drop in its quota at around 8500, because the density is lower just because nepal was put in special cut-off, and the embassies capacity won't allow AS to reach to the 2013 quota 9.5k, final AS cut-off will be at around 18k with lower density and lots of iranians cleared APs will get issued. And nepal will still move up to 10k.

SA also an obvious increase with Guatemala back in DV, the quota will 1100, and final cut-off at 1900.

Oc will stay with the average quota (600) and cut-off will end up at around 1700.

None of my this predictions includes Nacara huge impact that I was expecting, so hopefully if it kicks in, we will see a better result for high CNs.

As you've noticed I'm sticking to my latest predictions with a some slight re adjustments, and I wish I will be positively proven wrong very soon on the last VB.

Best of luck to all my family forum.
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Yes, certainly in the realm of possibility. Thank you for daring to stick your neck out, shortly before final September numbers will come out next week, vladek15425, much appreciated. A cursory look suggests that you allocated 1,200 Nacara visa to AFregion and therefore this quota and related cnn jump of +25,700 estimate for September seems to be on the high side, no? Just wondering. Thanks again!
 
nerandima said:
Sm1smom......... What is your last prediction on AS?
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Sorry, I'm not into predictions. And even if I was, making a prediction at this point in time is pointless IMO, the final VB for the 2014 FY will be coming out anytime from Monday, so best bet is to just wait.
 
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