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CEAC DATA up to 02-MAR-2014

vladek15425 said:
Thanks rayme,
Basicaly I see after 5 months of dv process we got 15861 issued.
Af is progressing very slow compare to the amount of the selectees!
Eu progress IMO is quiet good and its confirming my assumption that its cutoff will slow down sooner!
Click to expand...

I don't think it's correct to say Af is progressing very slow and Eu good, both of them are normal, at this stage in the year it's normal to have more visas issued for Europe comparing to Africa, why:

if we take the 09/30/2013 CEAC data, we can see that almost same amount of visa's are Treated for Eu each month (I don't include families) :

Feb - 870
Jan -783-
Mar - 1184-
Apr - 1261
May - 1076
Jun- 913
Jul 663
Aug 775
Sep 1093


but if you see AF most of them are treated in August and September:

Jan 943
Feb 1158
Mar 1576
Jul 1585
aug 2009
sep 6629



Same for issued number, you have 2610 visa issued for AF in September from 7144 for all the year, 37% which is huge, but for EU you have 635 issued in January and 649 in September, so the distribution is uniform, that explain why at the end AF got 23k and EU got 16k,

I think we have a normal year for both of them, the CN number of Africa is low because the density is more then last year, we have more CN's between 0 and 30 000 (when we exclude the special countries) , we have 500 more and we will have between 5 to 10% more (for those who will send their forms from now on),

Since we don't have CEAC data for DV-2013 in monthly bases, we will not be able to do a good comparison, next year they will be lucky beaucoup they will have a reference ....
 
rafikbo76 said:
So Vladek, Sloner, Kayend, Rayme, Mikoro, MalcomX and others

How Africa is going to be this year?
Click to expand...

Africa: Since we hit 30K, we can see that most of the special countries reached their limit for sure exept Ghana (not far) , since the distribution of the none special countries is almost homogeneous, we can have the following:

52100 (AF DV-2013 selected) - Special countries = 30832 with 20652 (cases on CEAC DV-2013) = 67%

61942 (AF DV-2014 selected) - Special countries = 40479 with X = 67%

X= 27120 this number represent the none special countries from 0 to 116,

So each 10k we will have around 27120/11.6 = 2338, so from 0 to 30k we should have 2338 * 3 = 7013

but if we check your file, and remove the special countries we can see that from 0 to 30k we have already 7058, you need to add 5 to 10% more for the late-comers, that's why in my previous post I said that the density is more, so the African CN will accelerate from now on and even faster then last year,
 
MalcomX said:
I don't think it's correct to say Af is progressing very slow and Eu good, both of them are normal, at this stage in the year it's normal to have more visas issued for Europe comparing to Africa, why:

if we take the 09/30/2013 CEAC data, we can see that almost same amount of visa's are Treated for Eu each month (I don't include families) :

Feb - 870
Jan -783-
Mar - 1184-
Apr - 1261
May - 1076
Jun- 913
Jul 663
Aug 775
Sep 1093


but if you see AF most of them are treated in August and September:

Jan 943
Feb 1158
Mar 1576
Jul 1585
aug 2009
sep 6629



Same for issued number, you have 2610 visa issued for AF in September from 7144 for all the year, 37% which is huge, but for EU you have 635 issued in January and 649 in September, so the distribution is uniform, that explain why at the end AF got 23k and EU got 16k,

I think we have a normal year for both of them, the CN number of Africa is low because the density is more then last year, we have more CN's between 0 and 30 000 (when we exclude the special countries) , we have 500 more and we will have between 5 to 10% more (for those who will send their forms from now on),

Since we don't have CEAC data for DV-2013 in monthly bases, we will not be able to do a good comparison, next year they will be lucky beaucoup they will have a reference ....
Click to expand...
I believe the cn are dense in the first months of dv for AF. Therefor I conclude its a slow pace compare to aount of visa issued!
Now that two of the AF countries(egypt+ethiop) are maxing out we will see a better move in VB for AF...
And embassies are issuing about 5k per month so that is prossing for AF at thgis stage I'm adjusting my prediction up to 105000 for af :)
 
Malcom you can't say eu and af are progressing normal! Its eirther good or to good for eu . Comparing eu to af when we know af has double number than eu, but eu is taking up to now more visas with smaller amout selectees compare to af ....!?!
That why I say within two month time eu will slow down on vb...
 
vladek15425 said:
I believe the cn are dense in the first months of dv for AF. Therefor I conclude its a slow pace compare to aount of visa issued!
Now that two of the AF countries(egypt+ethiop) are maxing out we will see a better move in VB for AF...
And embassies are issuing about 5k per month so that is prossing for AF at thgis stage I'm adjusting my prediction up to 105000 for af :)
Click to expand...


we can say that all the 4 special countries already hit the maximum, good news.....
 
MalcomX said:
we can say that all the 4 special countries already hit the maximum, good news.....
Click to expand...

Except nigeria that still runing, but I belive the biggest density of nigeria is swallowed already that's why they where hardly moving...
But I agree with you we are over the up heel we are going down now :)
 
vladek15425 said:
Malcom you can't say eu and af are progressing normal! Its eirther good or to good for eu . Comparing eu to af when we know af has double number than eu, but eu is taking up to now more visas with smaller amout selectees compare to af ....!?!
That why I say within two month time eu will slow down on vb...
Click to expand...

As I explained the post # 28 it's normal that EU take more visas between October and February but later one (in august and September) Africa will take more and more visas, 37% of cases are treated in August and September, so we know that they give more visas to Africa at the end of the financial year just review my post and you will understand.
 
vladek15425 said:
Except nigeria that still runing, but I belive the biggest density of nigeria is swallowed already that's why they where hardly moving...
But I agree with you we are over the up heel we are going down now :)
Click to expand...

When I said 'hit the maximum' I mean they don't exceed 30k (my maximum in my mind lolololol :) ) , so they will not interfere with the others countries --> we will have more holes + less density --> CN faster
 
MalcomX said:
As I explained the post # 28 it's normal that EU take more visas between October and February but later one (in august and September) Africa will take more and more visas, 37% of cases are treated in August and September, so we know that they give more visas to Africa at the end of the financial year just review my post and you will understand.
Click to expand...
Oh ok,I just did so presuming the other way around eu is performing faster than af now but at the end its the opposite!
I agree that's also my guess..:)
 
vladek15425 said:
Oh ok,I just did so presuming the other way around eu is performing faster than af now but at the end its the opposite!
I agree that's also my guess..:)
Click to expand...

Thanks, let's see if the others will agree with us, we are lucky because Simon is too busy, otherwise he will.... :mad:
 
MalcomX said:
When I said 'hit the maximum' I mean they don't exceed 30k (my maximum in my mind lolololol :) ) , so they will not interfere with the others countries --> we will have more holes + less density --> CN faster
Click to expand...

Lol j'arrive a lire tres bien tes pensees mon frere :)
 
Africa has received fewer visas than Europe. It's just super.
I think at the end of the year will remain so.

MalcomX,
in July, Aug, Sep 2013 in Europa current.
 
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