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CEAC DATA up to 02-MAR-2014

Sloner said:
Africa has received fewer visas than Europe. It's just super.
I think at the end of the year will remain so.

MalcomX,
in July, Aug, Sep 2013 in Europa current.
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yes current but treating same amount each month (and they do that to allow the latecomers to apply, it's like they finish in June and they allow additional three month for the latecomers) but for Africa it's different since they treat 40% of Africans cases between Aug and Sep which is huge, so it's normal to have low issued visas for AF at this stage of the proceeding (Mars), so we need to wait the sep 30th CEAC data to be able to confirm that EU will have more visas then Africa.
 
vladek15425 said:
Are you serious !? Do you think its got to do with political matters?
Sergey are you sure about what you are stating?
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It will be very strange if they do, since they allow Iranian to take visas (and a lot) even if they don't have diplomatic relations with them at all ....
 
I do believe africa will have good jump now onwards as many countries in special limit will approach the limit of their quota..i do believe african cases upto 90000 in quite safe range..
 
guys there is not any way is seen special cutoff for Nepal that is confirmed as just 1100 visa is issued in 5 months even with such density its just around 225 visa permonth which is not any such huge and i will again say now density of cases is very low we will see some good jump around 2000 in my view... still it is hard for higher cases more than 15000 even he/she not from iran and Nepal
skystar said:
Thanks for the huge effort, any expectations about AS especially for high CN will be appreciated.
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Rayme said:
guys there is not any way is seen special cutoff for Nepal that is confirmed as just 1100 visa is issued in 5 months even with such density its just around 225 visa permonth which is not any such huge and i will again say now density of cases is very low we will see some good jump around 2000 in my view... still it is hard for higher cases more than 15000 even he/she not from iran and Nepal
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Thank Rayme your predict to safe upto 15K

AS12***
 
So far Raevsky's prediction is the most logical but he doesn't include the current data pattern into consideration in his calculation. My prediction based on data pattern but not so much on DV13 and others might have their own prediction and calculation. Asia is very difficult to predict, I will not say at any range it will be safe or not because it depends on too much variables.

What about Asia Quota has less than 9k or they increase it to 11k or more?
What about take up rate suddenly slow down in 5k to 9k range?
What about KCC decide those countries that near the country quota to put into special cut off?
What about AP cases get clear in less than a month?
And the list can get on and on...

Everything I just mentioned above impact the CN progress range from 10k to current. Anyway, prediction is about getting those variables right but it is still very difficult to make a right call. I think you guys got the idea.

Don't stress out for now even you have a high CN #. Just give yourself 2 more months or so. By May, we should know better of the chances for high CN # but now is still very difficult to tell.
 
Very frustrated that I don't have cable/internet turned on at the new home yet, but I have downloaded this data and will take a look through it. I think we have to be careful in comparing to the 2013 data because a large chunk of data was missing - which is particularly impactful to the first few months.
 
britsimon said:
Very frustrated that I don't have cable/internet turned on at the new home yet, but I have downloaded this data and will take a look through it. I think we have to be careful in comparing to the 2013 data because a large chunk of data was missing - which is particularly impactful to the first few months.
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Exactly density is not the same so it wont match;)
 
vladek15425 said:
Exactly density is not the same so it wont match;)
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Yes that and the fact that 2013 is missing the first 10/11 weeks of data - so 2013 data only shows 45k visas issued, whereas 51k were actually issued. Allowing 2k for aos, that means ~4000 visas issued are missing from the 2013 data.
 
britsimon said:
Yes that and the fact that 2013 is missing the first 10/11 weeks of data - so 2013 data only shows 45k visas issued, whereas 51k were actually issued. Allowing 2k for aos, that means ~4000 visas issued are missing from the 2013 data.
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We have a special abnormal what ever you call name it :)
But its ours hey bro
We will make it through yeahhhhh
 
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