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CEAC data (Full) 8-1-2014

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franko said:
Hehehe Sloner.

You might as well tell people to watch FOX News, MSNBC or read Huffington Post to look for unbiased news in America.

The "other view" that you quoted is your presidents one :)

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/07/another-rt-reporter-quits-in-protest-192399.html
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Now read the words of the chief editor of the channel after the dismissal of the employee.
http://m-simonyan.livejournal.com/82734.html :)
http://russian.rt.com/inotv/2013-02-26/Sara-Fert-Fakti--moya
 
Thank you for all the information here.

What's the AP means?
So, is it safe for AS that I will be interviewed in Sep.?
 
andyaos said:
Thank you for all the information here.

What's the AP means?
So, is it safe for AS that I will be interviewed in Sep.?
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AP = administrative processing.

As I said already, they cannot max out in August. So an interview in Early September will be fine.
 
Britsimon said:
AP = administrative processing.

As I said already, they cannot max out in August. So an interview in Early September will be fine.
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But I am not sure we will have an interview in early Sep.
So, I just wait for the IL without doing anything so far...?
 
andyaos said:
But I am not sure we will have an interview in early Sep.
So, I just wait for the IL without doing anything so far...?
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Well you have an infopass - discuss it with them then. Make it clear that you are not happy about having to wait. I am trying to shake the branches at SF FO also - so that might help.
 
Britsimon said:
Well you have an infopass - discuss it with them then. Make it clear that you are not happy about having to wait. I am trying to shake the branches at SF FO also - so that might help.
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OK, I will try my best. Hope it works.
Thank you, Simon!!
 
Britsimon said:
OK - had some demand for some of the good stuff - so here it is.

Some notes:
  1. This data is based on the script from Rafikbo. Enormous thanks to him for creating the script, providing the data all this time, and in an act of selflessness making sure that "we" had the script to continue getting the data.
  2. Rafikbo modified how the script counts certain badly updated situations (cases where the embassy did not update all derivatives on a case). This means the fiule isn't 100% accurate - but pretty darn close!
  3. I extracted EU yesterday and the rest of the regionstoday. In reality the embassies may not have finished their updates for July, but I am already seeing August updates, so I think this is about the right time to extract the data. I may update EU over the weekend to be safe. EDIT: I ran the EU numbers again late yesterday. The issued number had risen by around 80 cases to 15904. 80 cases is insignificant about the average daily amount, so I don't think that was an embassy update - more like "normal progress" For that reason (and because Googledocs sucks) I am going to leave the earlier file as the "official" EU number.
  4. I put some thought into the cases that are became current for August and October. That helps understand the true impact of the readies. Some old readies will of course come through, but mainly, the current cases are the ones that cause the bulk of the movement.
  5. We could guesstimate the AP cases that get resolved. Many of those will resolve magically in September. So - they might be the majority of the movement in October.
  6. So far the file shows 40535 issued. My guesstimates suggest August and October interviews will add ~3500. If ALL tyhe AP cases got resolved (unlikely) we would be just UNDER 50k (plus around 2k aos). This would be almost identical to last year. I personally think there is space to squeeze a few more in - but KCC might not see it that way.
  7. Let the debate begin!
http://tinyurl.com/p7lchg8
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Hi Simon
Do you think that an early or Mid September interview doing AOS is safe for EU winner?
Me and my wife got our receipts already and getting the Bio letters tomorrow and doing a walking this week in Los Angeles.
My guess we might have an appointment between September 10-20. What do you think about that can we do the miracle?
 
tonyLA said:
Hi Simon
Do you think that an early or Mid September interview doing AOS is safe for EU winner?
Me and my wife got our receipts already and getting the Bio letters tomorrow and doing a walking this week in Los Angeles.
My guess we might have an appointment between September 10-20. What do you think about that can we do the miracle?
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I think that would be ok, but it is impossible to be sure. I advise you to push for an interview as soon as possible in September.
 
Britsimon said:
I think that would be ok, but it is impossible to be sure. I advise you to push for an interview as soon as possible in September.
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Thank you
I actually hired a lawyer who has been dealing with my filed office. I hope he will make the process faster. He thinks if the fingerprints done next week. We can get an interview for the first week of September. I hope he is right.
 
The change on some of these totals was because of a change in the way we account for some of the bad data updates. For example, in Ceac, you can find cases where the main selectee is refused, but the derivatives show as ready. In that example the data used to count only one refused. We now count all the derivatives as refused, based on the status of the principal selectee.

I've written my thoughts on Nigeria effect before. Basically the approximately 3k visas it got will be shared out globally. So that will help all regions. For Africa however there is another impact. Nigeria had a lot of entries, most of which created holes. Those holes and real entries are now gone, so the same case number in DV2015, is actually "higher" than that number in 2014. So that is bad news for high umber AF selectees.
 
Halcon said:
CEAC August 1 AF (Refused/Main Applicat) 3448 + (Deriatives of Refused Applicants Showing Ready) 1155 = 4603

CEAC 2013. With Nigeria 34963/52000=67% response rate Without Nigeria 30036/46000= 65% response rate

CEAC 2014. With Nigeria 35697/64000=56% response rate Without Nigeria 30283/58000=52% response rate

Without Nigeria DV2015 will have lower response rate no?
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I see we have a thinker! Cool.

I think your first point confirms my statement - correct?

The points about response rate. Well the 2013 data is incomplete (it only shows around 45k CEAC selectees whereas we know there were actually around 49k cases (plus AoS that doesn't show on CEAC). However, it is more complete in the sense that the regions went current.

The 2014 response rate isn't accurate because there are many people (I estimate around 15k minimum globally) who have not become current. So - some of those would have responded already, but just never get into CEAC.

Nigeria will only have a small impact on response rate. The response rate for Nigeria may be high or lower than the average for AF, and will therefore lower or raise the response rate - however since it is the response rate for less than 10% of the AF population, it will only have a small difference. Things like response rates and derivative rates are generally quite variable by country.
 
Halcon said:
Total Response Rate wont matter because there a cut-off number which eliminates those 15k you predict (they have no chance of visa correct so why analyse them).

Im using AF response rate to determine Case Number Progression/Issued visas/etc (i have High Number). Without the Nigeria, AF response rate WILL drop. which will in turn affect Case Number/Issued Visas/etc so 60% AF response rate in 2015 will result in 35 000/58 000 responsers for 22 000 visas which significantly increases my chances of a interview correct?? As 22 000/35 000 is way better than 22 000/ 58 000
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I don't understand why you are assuming the response rate without Nigeria will drop. The 58k already excludes Nigeria. I have checked the 2013 data and would say that Nigeria had a high response rate so taking them out will have a small drop in response rate for the region - but very small. Again, the CEAC data is understated so you can assume the AF region will have a response rate of higher than 70%. So - out of the 58k I would expect around 40k responses (at least). Around one third of those will not succeed, so there will be at least 27k qualified AF selectees - meaning the top 18/20% will miss out.

How high is your number?
 
Halcon said:
Im trying to figure out wen my case no. 62xxx will be current using case number history/nigeria effect/historical response rate/APs/refusals/etc
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Excluding nigeria from AF race in the 2015 cut-offs yoy will be surely current in agust still! But with low response, you might hit the jack-pot in july, but I doubt it.
 
Halcon said:
Im trying to figure out wen my case no. 62xxx will be current using case number history/nigeria effect/historical response rate/APs/refusals/etc
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Yes that is a good number - not too high. I would guess August at this point, but we will know better nearer the time.
 
ModNAmE said:
hey guys i received the 2nd notification letter of other person whose's from Europe and with different name . ... though i am for asia with case 12000(NEPAL) ..... there is poblem with the database i think.....
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Then what will happen for Nepal?
 
Britsimon said:
Nepal is not likely to increase at all - and most certainly will not go to your number. Sorry.
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i am not certain but i think NEPAL will increase .coz there are 300 visa left and They had only covered 3400 visa . IF asia in going to limit on recent number then this is a chance. by the way then dont even have to increase the number. they only have to remove that except word for VB.
 
Hi guys. Is there something wrong with data for Zambia? Only 8 cases are appearing in up to the Aug CEAC. Where are the others? Can someone please tell me? Is the data faulty or what?
 
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