The animation is awesome. There is a lag between the date when a case gets its 'ready' status, and the date when this status change into 'issued', 'refused', 'a p' ( the status change a few days after the interview date).... So the exponential progression of the ready status in the last 2 months will be normally reflected in the issuance of visas. Will we see also an exponential trend for the issuance of visas?
CEAC data and graphs
- Thread starter dalius
- Start date
The animation is awesome. There is a lag between the date when a case gets its 'ready' status, and the date when this status change into 'issued', 'refused', 'a p' ( the status change a few days after the interview date).... So the exponential progression of the ready status in the last 2 months will be normally reflected in the issuance of visas. Will we see also an exponential trend for the issuance of visas?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
That would make sense. There's no a priori reason to assume that the issued vs rejection vs AP rate would change much? Also interesting to see how relatively low the outright refusals are.
Possibly part of the 'exponential' reason is that KCC has caught up with processing late returns of forms etc.
If "ready" has been adjusted to exclude those now interviewed, which it looks like it has, then between those already interviewed and those awaiting, we are already up to 38000 cases processed - this will include interviews to April, correct? This roughly tallies with them pushing for the maximum 10% of visas they can do per month, if one takes 55000 as the baseline. So on the one hand it shows that they are indeed reallocating nacara to other regions - good news for 5000 applicants obviously. But the other implication must be, as we keep saying, that they will run out of visa numbers by fiscal year end if more than 55000 applicants + derivatives want visas, which is almost certain.
I think this has been asked, but is there somewhere we can compare to DV2013 progress?
Yes, KCC still processes late returns of forms. They still schedule interviews for a bunch of low CN numbers (see interview schedule for Ankara or Warsaw for instance).
I won't be surprise they will issue already most of the visas by this Summer. They do this every year. This is the reason why they reach the final cutoff by June or July (the CURRENT status only shows that there are not much more CN numbers to get a 2nl). They still interview through September though, but August and September are usually not very loaded in interviews (I can remember Warsaw had not so many interviews scheduled in September last year compared to previous months). This is the best way for them to trim the number of visa to the global quota: just finishing up the issuance of visas in August and September, to reach the 50k something global quota.
We should then see a progression of the cutoff following an S-shaped curve, with the possibility to see UNAVAILABLE for some regions and some high entry countries by July. I just hope not for all my fellow High CN selectees!
This year is an 'interesting' one as they have plenty of selectees in hand. Because of this they may reach the 7% country limit quickly. That would result in a quick jump for other countries in the next couple of months. Where all this will stop is pure speculation at this point
That would be very interesting to compare with DV 13.
Do you think the 14,000 issued cases include dependants or not?
Yes, KCC loads cases in the CEAC database for the April cutoff now. But that doesn't mean all April cutoff cases are loaded yet.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure how the data is mined, but looking at the numbers so far I would think it must? If not then the higher case numbers are really in trouble...
Dalius, did you include the derivatives in the 38,000 cases and in the 14,000 'issued'?
If there are 14,000 visas issued for the first 5 months, there is still hope for the high CN numbers.
Last edited by a moderator:
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Not if the visas issued start following the exponential increase in ready cases...
They have on average, taking the ready cases into account, been processing at a rate of just under 5500 applicants per month.
Great, thanks Dalius.
Do you think you could add a graph with the FY13 data, just to compare?
Susie, by the way, how do you explain the exponential trend of ready cases while the progression of the cutoffs did not really follow such an exponential curve? Late form returns?
I checked my number on May 2, and the forms were received by KCC on May 9. I thought I was late...
I have dv2013 data, but the thing is, CEAC keeps changing status date even for issued/refused cases, so it shifts. For dv2014 I stop updating status once it becomes issued/refused. I will upload a comparison graph to show what I mean.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I think some of it is late returns, but this is why I would like to compare to previous years, as we know the cut-offs start jumping a few months in usually. I would like to see how normal the sudden rise is...
Edit sorry responded to wrong post
for house.In case you don't have the one Raevsky put together last Fall, here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=11
Another question for you Dalius:
It seems there are very little nb of ready cases for the first 3 months. Have you seen ready case disappearing from the CEAC database?for instance, the ones that did not show up at the interview. Do they stay all in ready status, or are they removed?
It seems there are very little nb of ready cases for the first 3 months. Have you seen ready case disappearing from the CEAC database?for instance, the ones that did not show up at the interview. Do they stay all in ready status, or are they removed?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Susie, by the way, how do you explain the exponential trend of ready cases while the progression of the cutoffs did not really follow such an exponential curve? Late form returns?
I checked my number on May 2, and the forms were received by KCC on May 9. I thought I was late...
I don't really see anything unusual about the ready cas or anything else in the graphs. The graphs show exactly what you would expect - and the moving graphs make a nice cartoon to explain what is happening.
Basically the graph shows that KCC load the machine with the ready cases. You can see the jump in KCC activity just after the VB dates - I.e. KCC arranging the interviews for the next batch of current cases - which the graph shows is activity that has an initial surge and then continues for a couple of weeks.
The the updates to other statuses is the work being performed by the embassies. The issued line is moving in a nice progression - exactly as you would hope as they eat their way through the ready cases that KCC is throwing into the grinder.
Am I missing something?
i haven't looked into that, once I capture a case I just keep updating it until it's issued/refused.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
We didn't see the first data until the first three months were complete, so many of the ready cases had already been worked and converted to other status types.
A number of cases in late 2013 in Ready status disappeared later from CEAC data. I provided a few examples. But percentage of those cases is low. I think those are not the cases that did not show up at the interview, because those were 2% at most. Most likely something else like forms submitted to KCC without a signature or something similar disqualifying the forms.
Istanbuler
Registered Users (C)
Ok. we have new data.
So what do you think about final VB cutoff's number?
So what do you think about final VB cutoff's number?