I am too scratching my brains on this...., i think only uscis knows the answer....but assuming the worst this is my take:
in the past they queue for I-485 was so less, that they kept EB3, EB2 and EB1 current, and i think they used to process I-485 without any category-wise priority, that means first come first serve basis...
if that is the case....EB1 will also be screwed beyond recognition...since the queue is pretty long from other categories....
but i think i may be wrong....maybe beyond all my calculations....EB1 from India and china are really too many....which is hard to believe looking at past numbers...
calculation(copied from other thread)
Assumptions:
1) Total Green cards of 140,000 for a given fiscal year
2) 28.6 % each for a given category EB1, EB2, AND EB3.
3) Per country limit of 7.1 %
4) Also, we all are aware that last few years where the dates stayed current was because of AC21 and a lot of visas were issued from the pool recaptured from earlier years' un-used quota. We all should remember and not question why suddenly there is a concept of priority date now. We should have seen it coming, I think
8) Average family size 2.13
Step1: Per country limit for a year 9,800 (rounded) 7.1 % of 140,000
step2: assuming that we will get another 10000 from unsubscribed visas from other categories and countries..., we have around 20000
Step3: Limit for each category 5,400 (rounded) 28.6% Step 1
step 3: after family it is 2500 (rounded) step2/2.13
that means there are only 2500 visa for EB1-india or EB1-china.
the same rule applies for EB2 per country wise.
but the bad news is that in 2004, total number of EB1 visa were 31,291 (
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/2004/table4.xls )
if we assume that 25% of that is india or china.....thats not as bad as EB3 or EB2..
because that means....atleast 7500 (2500 primary applicants) were EB1 india..
if this calculation is right, and if there is no legislation, it may take 2-3 years to get a I-485 approved.