Can someone tell me why there is Retrogression for EB1

anxiousOR

Registered Users (C)
HI there,

Can someoen tell me why there is retrogression for EB1. I can understand retro fro EB2 and EB3,because of labor step. But for EB1, I can understand it might take longer for the approval, since limited visa number for this year and from now on, but the date should not go back. Honkman and other expert, can someone explain this to me?

Thanks.
 

techy2468

Registered Users (C)
I am too scratching my brains on this...., i think only uscis knows the answer....but assuming the worst this is my take:

in the past they queue for I-485 was so less, that they kept EB3, EB2 and EB1 current, and i think they used to process I-485 without any category-wise priority, that means first come first serve basis...

if that is the case....EB1 will also be screwed beyond recognition...since the queue is pretty long from other categories....

but i think i may be wrong....maybe beyond all my calculations....EB1 from India and china are really too many....which is hard to believe looking at past numbers...

calculation(copied from other thread)
Assumptions:
1) Total Green cards of 140,000 for a given fiscal year
2) 28.6 % each for a given category EB1, EB2, AND EB3.
3) Per country limit of 7.1 %
4) Also, we all are aware that last few years where the dates stayed current was because of AC21 and a lot of visas were issued from the pool recaptured from earlier years' un-used quota. We all should remember and not question why suddenly there is a concept of priority date now. We should have seen it coming, I think
8) Average family size 2.13

Step1: Per country limit for a year 9,800 (rounded) 7.1 % of 140,000
step2: assuming that we will get another 10000 from unsubscribed visas from other categories and countries..., we have around 20000

Step3: Limit for each category 5,400 (rounded) 28.6% Step 1
step 3: after family it is 2500 (rounded) step2/2.13


that means there are only 2500 visa for EB1-india or EB1-china.

the same rule applies for EB2 per country wise.

but the bad news is that in 2004, total number of EB1 visa were 31,291 ( http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/2004/table4.xls )

if we assume that 25% of that is india or china.....thats not as bad as EB3 or EB2..

because that means....atleast 7500 (2500 primary applicants) were EB1 india..

if this calculation is right, and if there is no legislation, it may take 2-3 years to get a I-485 approved.
 
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MrGC2004

Registered Users (C)
anxiousOR said:
HI there,

Can someoen tell me why there is retrogression for EB1. I can understand retro fro EB2 and EB3,because of labor step. But for EB1, I can understand it might take longer for the approval, since limited visa number for this year and from now on, but the date should not go back. Honkman and other expert, can someone explain this to me?

Thanks.

Well , I beleive this time it was BCIS who estimated the pending cases.
For Eb1 the approval rates were high in the recent times and the dates moved ahead .....................................as the "Date" is based on 75 % approvals. remaining 25 % got accumulated and with numbers of VISA going down they became major percentage. ...hence the retrogression. For INDIA its 2002 august ..............for china its 2000 ..........It is known statistics that More chinesse numbers are Post doc researchers and they are file EB1.

Well the good side about it is that pending cases will get resolved soon and numbers are likely to become current prior to EB2 & EB3. 2003 filres like you will get it in first packet!
 

anxiousOR

Registered Users (C)
More questions

Very nice calculation techy2468, make sense.
But going back to my question, as far as I know there was no really bad bottle-neck in EB1 processing. The process was stalled around early 2003, but it was resolved by the end of 2004. which means most of the people who file EB1 before 2004 should have their cases approved already.
but retrogression to the year of 2000, does it mean that there are more than 1000 applicants from mainland china waiting since 2000, and more than 1000 waiting from 2001.....? I just can not believe it.
 

techy2468

Registered Users (C)
i dont think there are more than 1000 from past years...

i think 75% of people used to get their GC (complete process) in 1.5 years.

we can safely assume that only 5% may be pending from 2002, and around 10% from 2003..

I think retrogression by uscis (or dept of state), is not based on exact calculations....they just want to stall new applications from entering the system....since they have quite a few waiting for new visa numbers...

another thing is they may want to start with a clean slate...that means they may want to be done with most of the old cases....and in future...they want to complete the whole process in 6 months time....that means if PD becomes current...means there are visa available...that means...once they finish the paperwork...they will approve the same day.


as far as i know there may not be more than 10 cases for EB3-india-1998, but still thats the cutoff date set by uscis.
 

EB1ORAug2005

Registered Users (C)
Good work on the calculations techy2468.
Unless is there is some increase in the visa numbers how can the PD become current. That can happen only if the demand for visa numbers decreases which I dont think will happen. If they want to keep the PD current in future, are they going to limit the number of I485 applications to the visa numbers availabe?
 
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