Calculating available EB VISA numbers from 140,000?

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krish2006

Registered Users (C)
I am puzzled by one thing. Annually there are 140,000 EB visa numbers are issued.

of those India,China,Mexico & Philippines take 7% each (based on per country limit)
i.e. 140,000 X 0.07 = 9,800 so for the above four countries total is 9,800 X 4 = 39,200

So for the Rest Of the World (ROW) total EB numbers available would be
140,000 - 39,200 = 100,800

USCIS recently released the inventory statistics for pending I-485 (on Aug 25,2009) which details how many
I-485s are pending for each country with a given priority date (month)

I have provided the USCIS link below which is PDF from USCIS website. (Or follow the explantion at the end to get to that page)

Based on this, if you goto page 3 of PDF which lists out all I-485s pending for ROW countries, there are only
74,914 pending for all EB categories.

But As I shown in my calculation above, there would be 100,800 EB visa numbers are available for ROW countries in total.

Based on these, should n't EB3 ROW be current or atleast somewhere in 2006 in latest bulletin.

Can anyone explain what am I missing here.


http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/New Stru...ard - 3rd Level/Pending Form I485 Reports.pdf

OR to get to the link, follow this steps:

1)goto www.uscis.gov from your browser
2) Click on "Green Card Through a Job" link on this page
3) Now click on "Green Card Processes & Procedures" link on the left
4) once the above link expands, click on "Visa Availability & Priority Dates" link
5) on the right hand side under More Information you will see links to
I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated August 25, 2009) ( PDF) and
Questions & Answers: Pending Employment-Based Form I-485 Inventory


Latest visa bulletin (Jan 2010) also explains in detail how the above is calculated under section

D. EXPLANATION OF THE NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM AND CUT-DATE PROJECTIONS

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4597.html
 
Remember that the numbers are divided into EB1 thru EB5, which means EB3 ROW cannot immediately get the unused numbers until the last quarter of FY2010 (USCIS said they expect EB3 ROW to reach 2005 by the end of FY2010). And these statistics do not include the expected consular filings, nor the people who filed I-485 since that was published in August.
 
This is direct quote from inventory FAQ from the link earlier I posted

"The U.S. Department of State (DOS) gives out 140,000 employment-based visas each year. About 85% of those visas go to people seeking a green card in the United States, while about 15% go to people seeking to immigrate from abroad"

Based on this assuming 15% go towards consular,
140,000 x 0.85 = 119,000 (For 485s)
119,000 - 39,200 = 79,800 (for ROW 485 )

But demand from all EB categories is only 74,914. Even in this scenario, last quarter of FY 2010 EB3 ROW should become current but visa bulletin only says 2005.

The chances of more EB filings from ROW btw Aug 25th and now is very slim.

Even then , By next year last quarter ie FY 2011 , atleast 80,000 ROW unused numbers should go for other countries.
 
The chances of more EB filings from ROW btw Aug 25th and now is very slim.
Click to expand...
It could be more than you think, due to people getting married and adding a spouse.

Also, there might be some "horizontal" spillover, meaning some of the unused numbers from EB2 ROW going to EB2 China and EB2 India, instead of EB2 ROW -> EB3 ROW.
 
There won't be any horizontal spill over as such,
Check every Visa Bulletin explains clearly how various EB numbers are distributed. (I know there is rumor out there which says DOS changed from vertical to horizontal spill but not true)

Here is an excerpt directly from visa bulletin. Its very clear. There is no confusion as to How the spill occurs

Third: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide level, plus any numbers not required by first and second preferences, not more than 10,000 of which to "Other Workers".

>> It could be more than you think, due to people getting married and adding a spouse.

But I doubt it based on statistics and from the inventory since 1997. Even then they may not be that much as to prevent EB3 ROW becoming current
 
krish2006 said:
Here is an excerpt directly from visa bulletin. Its very clear. There is no confusion as to How the spill occurs
Click to expand...

If I recall correctly, AC21 also allowed countries to exceed the per-country limit if there were otherwise unused visa numbers, but visa number allocation is a black art that I don't try and pretend to understand.
 
krish2006 said:
There won't be any horizontal spill over as such,
Check every Visa Bulletin explains clearly how various EB numbers are distributed. (I know there is rumor out there which says DOS changed from vertical to horizontal spill but not true)
Click to expand...
The visa bulletin does not tell the whole story. There is a separate law that allows oversubscribed countries to exceed the 7% limit if there are unused numbers from the rest of the world, and the only way that can happen is with some amount of horizontal spillover.
 
I read some where, there is no horizontal spill over and also, I believe that this is true as we are not seeing any progress or less progress in case of over subscribed countries, viz., India, China.

I will be very happy if there is any rule of spill over. This will be a great relief to me.

Thanks

SRK
 
http://www.murthy.com/print/n_vb0110_P.html

Predictions of EB2 for India and China
There are provisions for movement of visa numbers within categories, and from certain categories to others, if those numbers otherwise would go unused in the particular fiscal year.

Please also checkout other relevant sections. In brief, the conditions applies yet the rollover do happen within a particular category.
 
Inventory numbers decreased for 2002/3/4 when priority not reached - Probable fraud at USCIS

I noticed that comparing the inventory statistics for dec 2009 and july 2009 total numbers for some months on 2002 2003 2004 have been reduced from the previous report.

Does it mean they have approved 485 for 2002 2003 2004 even when priority not reached ?

How do we account for the decrease in the numbers for 2002 2003 2004 otherwise?

Are the farmers back to their old tricks of denying older priority dates at the expense of approving newer ones ?

Are they back to their old fraud methods ?
 
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