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Bulletin now updated for DV 2008

asd22 said:
alemitmee, this answer might explain some things:rolleyes:
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That's true, however reading through the forums I noticed that many folks from Africa either get married or have a child in the meantime so that sort of adds more applicants to DV visas than originally accounted for.
 
Yazoo said:
That's true, however reading through the forums I noticed that many folks from Africa either get married or have a child in the meantime so that sort of adds more applicants to DV visas than originally accounted for.
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The more I read the info and try to analyze it the more confused I seem to get. There are so many possible reasons for the apparent discrepancies.
 
More Competition

Just noticed number of entries increased from 5.5 million for dv-07 to 6.4 million for dv-08.
Number of winners increased from 82,000 to 96,000 for the same period.
But still only 50,000 visas. Ouch!!!
 
Baba Aladura said:
Just noticed number of entries increased from 5.5 million for dv-07 to 6.4 million for dv-08.
Number of winners increased from 82,000 to 96,000 for the same period.
But still only 50,000 visas. Ouch!!!
Click to expand...

Baba there is no correlation between number of entries and number of winners, number of winners and number of visas issued and so on... KCC has a mathematical model and a standard operating procedures. Part of these procedures that involve applicants is being published as instructions. Unfortunately the applicants do not always follow these instructions and that leads to disqualifications, ineligibility and so on. The 50,000 available visas have never been completely used in the history of DV...again because of the afore mentioned reasons.
 
islandgirl said:
The more I read the info and try to analyze it the more confused I seem to get. There are so many possible reasons for the apparent discrepancies.
Click to expand...


Don't get confused Islandgirl. Different people have different opinions. Hard facts are what matter.
KCC uses a complex algorithm that offers every entry into the DV, no matter the region an equal chance of winning. So here is the wisdom; if different regions with different number of entries all have the same chance of winning, the outcome of winners will be different. All the reasons for the discrepancies namely more derivatives for african winners, low visa-winner ratio for africa, very high visa-winner ratio for europe.....
 
No problem for Uzbekistan

alemitmee said:
So the EU problematic countries will definitely be UKRAINE and UZBEKISTAN, I think you will see restrictions on their cut off numbers after a few months of the bulletins, but it all depends on the take up I guess.
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I don’t think that Uzbekistan will have a problem. In general the ratio between the number of visas issued and the number of NLs sent out (Visas/NLs – visas per NL) is roughly around 0.8 for Europe as a whole.

I remember reading some statistics sometime back which indicate that roughly around 20,000 DV visas are issued for Europe every year. I don’t remember where, but I remember that you commented on those statistics too, so it’ll not be difficult for you to find again! ;-)
Since roughly around 25,000 NLs were sent out for Europe last year, I came up with this figure (20,000/25,000 = 0.8)

So if things go along the way they normally do, 3100 NLs should lead to (3100*0.8 =) 2480 visas for Uzbekistan. It’ll probably be even be less than that because winners in Uzbekistan may find it more difficult than those elsewhere in Europe to satisfy the “public charge” test by showing money in the bank etc.
So it is unlikely that the number of Visas issued for Uzbekistan would come close to 3500 which is the maximum limit per country. Thus separate country restrictions will probably not be necessary!


ps- all calculations and figures are very rough as this is meant only to be a very rough projection.
 
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My myopia

blackgerman said:
Baba there is no correlation between number of entries and number of winners, number of winners and number of visas issued and so on... KCC has a mathematical model and a standard operating procedures. Part of these procedures that involve applicants is being published as instructions. Unfortunately the applicants do not always follow these instructions and that leads to disqualifications, ineligibility and so on. The 50,000 available visas have never been completely used in the history of DV...again because of the afore mentioned reasons.
Click to expand...
I just had a very narrow view of the process, since many Nigerians did not get called for interview for dv-07. Numbers got cut-off at 20700. Apparently because the visas were used-up.
 
Tazmania said:
I think A) but I'm not sure about it. :eek:

But the published numbers should be the final result, so only A) make sense, otherwise it's like you said, they have to change the numbers as winners can return the form till Sep. 30
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Where did this Sep 30 deadline for returning the form come from? I received the NL but have not returned it yet (in case I need to go home and come back on my nonimmigrant visa)... was planning to send it in before I applied for AOS (probably next year).

The DOS seems to have been careful to not give a deadline for returning the letter... or have I missed something?
 
orangeandwhite said:
Where did this Sep 30 deadline for returning the form come from? I received the NL but have not returned it yet (in case I need to go home and come back on my nonimmigrant visa)... was planning to send it in before I applied for AOS (probably next year).

The DOS seems to have been careful to not give a deadline for returning the letter... or have I missed something?
Click to expand...

There;s no deadline on returning the forms. The only deadline is that u must receive the Visa by Sep 30,2008.
 
Mihiranga said:
I don’t think that Uzbekistan will have a problem. In general the ratio between the number of visas issued and the number of NLs sent out (Visas/NLs – visas per NL) is roughly around 0.8 for Europe as a whole.

I remember reading some statistics sometime back which indicate that roughly around 20,000 DV visas are issued for Europe every year. I don’t remember where, but I remember that you commented on those statistics too, so it’ll not be difficult for you to find again! ;-)
Since roughly around 25,000 NLs were sent out for Europe last year, I came up with this figure (20,000/25,000 = 0.8)

So if things go along the way they normally do, 3100 NLs should lead to (3100*0.8 =) 2480 visas for Uzbekistan. It’ll probably be even be less than that because winners in Uzbekistan may find it more difficult than those elsewhere in Europe to satisfy the “public charge” test by showing money in the bank etc.
So it is unlikely that the number of Visas issued for Uzbekistan would come close to 3500 which is the maximum limit per country. Thus separate country restrictions will probably not be necessary!


ps- all calculations and figures are very rough as this is meant only to be a very rough projection.
Click to expand...

I think there will be no restrictions for Uzbekistan, because I saw people from Uzbekistan with cn 25XXX.
 
Hi guys,

KCC said they have started printing out the second NL and will start sending.

my NL No is AF12xx
 
hi all
My case number is 2008EU000005.. First am I asigned for October interview?
If yes approx, when I should get the second notification letter from KCC?
Thanks all
 
why don't you call KCC and ask when your interview is?the second letter might never arrive because of the postal services.
 
Mihiranga said:
I don’t think that Uzbekistan will have a problem. In general the ratio between the number of visas issued and the number of NLs sent out (Visas/NLs – visas per NL) is roughly around 0.8 for Europe as a whole.

I remember reading some statistics sometime back which indicate that roughly around 20,000 DV visas are issued for Europe every year. I don’t remember where, but I remember that you commented on those statistics too, so it’ll not be difficult for you to find again! ;-)
Since roughly around 25,000 NLs were sent out for Europe last year, I came up with this figure (20,000/25,000 = 0.8)

So if things go along the way they normally do, 3100 NLs should lead to (3100*0.8 =) 2480 visas for Uzbekistan. It’ll probably be even be less than that because winners in Uzbekistan may find it more difficult than those elsewhere in Europe to satisfy the “public charge” test by showing money in the bank etc.
So it is unlikely that the number of Visas issued for Uzbekistan would come close to 3500 which is the maximum limit per country. Thus separate country restrictions will probably not be necessary!


ps- all calculations and figures are very rough as this is meant only to be a very rough projection.
Click to expand...

Mihiranga, This makes good sense. I guess you are probably right. And there were about 20,000 NL’s issued. Although that included secondary visas too, and secondary applicants do not get CN’s.
If there are not too many people from Uzbekistan that try to apply with many divertive applicants then a visa number of 2480 may be as good a guess as any. But as you said your self all the discussion are just based on guesses based on what’s happened in previous years. But at least we are trying to make a guess based on some sort of logic! So with a bit of luck you will be correct.
 
Please Can Any Body Tell When In A Visa Bulletin It Is Written "current" Does It Mean All The Remaining Numbers Are Included If No Exception Is Mentioned?
 
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