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August visa bulletin the final.

guestgulkan said:
Are you above 1650 or below 1650 ? Either way I think you still have a pretty good shot. You're only 200 CN off.
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I'm below 1650... I know there's still a 50/50 chance, but I'm more worried about the global quota being filled before I reach my interview
 
I need you advise guys especially Birtsimon. My case is AS 23xxx doing AOS as mentioned many times ago. After today's frustration and anger,I think the round ends sadly,however,who knows what will happen in the final VB .Do you advise me to change to CP or keep the AOS? In both cases, I will not lose anything hoping something will change. As I understand that CP is faster than AOS. The other question,is it possible the the scheduled interview may be canceled if visas exhausted? any documented case(s) in this regards :(
 
Kurt14 said:
I'm below 1650... I know there's still a 50/50 chance, but I'm more worried about the global quota being filled before I reach my interview
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I wouldn't despair just yet. Your odds are about the same as when you first received notification.

Actually, being below 1650 gives you much stronger odds so I'm going to put you at 70/30. You may be surprised and in September they add 300-400 and you make it easily.
 
guestgulkan said:
I wouldn't despair just yet. Your odds are about the same as when you first received notification.

Actually, being below 1650 gives you much stronger odds so I'm going to put you at 70/30. You may be surprised and in September they add 300-400 and you make it easily.
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That would be ideal. Thanks for the positive words :)
 
Essey said:
Thanks for this AU.Dan. Do we have the current no. of issues for OC 2014? Based on this data alone, it doesn't appear that going Current is out of the question, but obviously based on everything else we know, it looks less likely.

Edit: I found the link on the spreadsheet. Issued at 408 as at 29 April if I'm reading it correctly.
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Here is a speadsheet with all the months and cutoff for OC broken down.
The last TAB has a comparison to 2013
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S3w-9gBkNC-iq-xdLv1tLA8-5kK9tAYnSyqv40FSrPQ/edit?usp=sharing
 
EURO2014 said:
I personally can't see that this (cancelling confirmed visa interviews) may be the case: my understanding of the process was, and currently still is, that visa numbers are being assigned at the time the appointments are being set, i.e.at around 06/15 for the month of August, meaning that they are being deducted from the regional quota and assigned to specific CN cases at that time. If this understanding of the process is correct, there won't be a need to "cancel all further interviews" which previously have been confirmed in the 2nd NL letter. Can someone from the group with additional understanding & deeper knowledge please comment & clarify? Thank you, very much appreciated!
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No that is not correct. When they schedule the interviews they know that some will be denied, some on AP etc. So yes they ave some idea of how many visas they will cause by moving the VB by some number, but it is a guesstimate - and might need revision.
 
SKYSTAR said:
I need you advise guys especially Birtsimon. My case is AS 23xxx doing AOS as mentioned many times ago. After today's frustration and anger,I think the round ends sadly,however,who knows what will happen in the final VB .Do you advise me to change to CP or keep the AOS? In both cases, I will not lose anything hoping something will change. As I understand that CP is faster than AOS. The other question,is it possible the the scheduled interview may be canceled if visas exhausted? any documented case(s) in this regards :(
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Personally I would not consider as at this point if I were you. The AS quota will not last until September 30, so you won't even ave a full month to complete the process. You can submit early on aos, but after that point you would be lucky to complete within the month (or less). However if you want to switch to CP you need to get your forms in NOW. They take some time to process them and you need that to be completed by about 5 weeks from now.

Yes they can cancel appointments as they did in Iran in 2013.

Lastly I have to say that as23xxx is sufficiently high that you need to understand you might be too high to go current. It is higher than I believe will be the highest number. However, no one knows for sure.
 
Ohhhhh since yesterday my phone was staying on the same page so this morning I answered on the post of the weather in Chicago.....

So I just have discovered now the new cut off!!!!!!!!!
Ohhhh my vlady that's now! We are current!!!!!
I can't discribe my emotion !

On the other hand I think about AF cutt off and the bad news for my friend rafik :(
 
EURO2014 said:
I personally can't see that this (cancelling confirmed visa interviews) may be the case: my understanding of the process was, and currently still is, that visa numbers are being assigned at the time the appointments are being set, i.e.at around 06/15 for the month of August, meaning that they are being deducted from the regional quota and assigned to specific CN cases at that time. If this understanding of the process is correct, there won't be a need to "cancel all further interviews" which previously have been confirmed in the 2nd NL letter. Can someone from the group with additional understanding & deeper knowledge please comment & clarify? Thank you, very much appreciated!
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It has happened in cases like Bangladesh and Iran hitting the country limits but I do not believe as Raevsky seems to indicate that it is done on purpose. My understanding is they make a best guess on how many appointments to make to fill the quota given the usual rejections, no shows etc. If these kinds of factors end up less than usual and they end up having a higher success rate than expected, then they could hit the limit earlier than anticipated. If this is the case they will cancel remaining interviews, as there are no more visas to give.

Edit: actually when I re-read the Iranian notification, it did not say remaining interviews were cancelled. It said those previously interviewed, some of whom had been on AP that had completed, must not come back to the embassy as visas are exhausted. So maybe they did not actually cancel interviews but had a higher success rate than expected from the ones they had done and/or more people competed AP sooner than expected. However.... Bangladesh was definitely a case of canceled interviews: http://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/2007/09/04/dv-interviews-for-september-cancelled
 
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nabin said:
is it true that kcc put nepal on special cutoff?? i.e. 9500 nepal. with asia 12700???
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I Had seen the two numbers 12700 and 9500 on the Nepal FB age. So I called and got the other numbers and about AS I gave her the numbers I had seen and the girl said yes that is correct. She was young, and I was more interested in the other regions so it is possible the 9500 is a mistake. We will get confirmation tomorrow. The 9500 limit seems logical to explain how they jumped well for the rest of Asia. Also understand this is a limit for this month. Nepal could rise again next month.
 
Britsimon said:
I Had seen the two numbers 12700 and 9500 on the Nepal FB age. So I called and got the other numbers and about AS I gave her the numbers I had seen and the girl said yes that is correct. She was young, and I was more interested in the other regions so it is possible the 9500 is a mistake. We will get confirmation tomorrow. The 9500 limit seems logical to explain how they jumped well for the rest of Asia. Also understand this is a limit for this month. Nepal could rise again next month.
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Thanks for info.
 
Britsimon said:
Personally I would not consider as at this point if I were you. The AS quota will not last until September 30, so you won't even ave a full month to complete the process. You can submit early on aos, but after that point you would be lucky to complete within the month (or less). However if you want to switch to CP you need to get your forms in NOW. They take some time to process them and you need that to be completed by about 5 weeks from now.

Yes they can cancel appointments as they did in Iran in 2013.

Lastly I have to say that as23xxx is sufficiently high that you need to understand you might be too high to go current. It is higher than I believe will be the highest number. However, no one knows for sure.
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Thanks Biritsimon, Really I know from the beginning that my CN is too high,however,I was hoping to become current. I will call KCC tomorrow to figure out the processing time for my case. Another question, what is you expectation for the final VB based on July VB?
 
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