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August visa bulletin the final.

Stalin23 said:
Vladek,
What do u think about the next VB?
Click to expand...
If you minus 71 refued up to now and some readys that will stay ready ( no showed-up). Add some little oas ! + some CPs in other countries chargeable to nepal.
Than nepal will still hit the limit between 10.5k to 11k cn range this how I see it man!
I need concrete infos about iran to take a better guess about the rest of asia, if iran really maxed out for july than asia might reach 19k 20k may even current if there lot of secondholes in ROA.
 
vladek15425 said:
If you minus 71 refued up to now and some readys that will stay ready ( no showed-up). Add some little oas ! + some CPs in other countries chargeable to nepal.
Than nepal will still hit the limit between 10.5k to 11k cn range this how I see it man!
I need concrete infos about iran to take a better guess about the rest of asia, if iran really maxed out for july than asia might reach 19k 20k may even current if there lot of secondholes in ROA.
Click to expand...
You are seeing correctly my friend...Nepal just need 500-600 more derivatives to hit their limit at 85% success rate...If the density same as July VB they will maxed out around 10.5k...So Asia will be CURRENT for sure
 
Nepal...
7425-7500= 23
7501-7600= 46
7601-7700= 28
7701-7800= 33
7801-7900 = 49
7901-8000 = 41
8001- 8100 =34
8100-8200 = 30
8201-8300= 26
8301-8400 = 39
8401-8500 = 38
8501-8600=29
8601-8700=46
8701-8800=39
8801-8900=39

total = 540
 
Based on this data, it seems like Nepal has really high take up rate too. If this density continue up to 14k since we know there are still a lot of case no between 10k to 14k for Nepalese, I totally agree with Vladek that Nepal will hit the limit below 11k. As for Iran, we can see it has lesser CN in 7425 to 8900 so far. It already have 2 out of 3 embassies data for Iran in CEAC and it only have less than 200 CN. So, next VB will jump higher than 1.5k for sure. There are 2 scenarios that will happen for Asia in next VB.

1. KCC continue to schedule Nepalese interviews up to the CN that KCC think it is enough to cover Nepal. So, it will be 11k for August and not special cut off.
2. KCC will spread the remaining 500-600 selectees needed for Nepal into 2 months, therefore it will have a special cut off for Nepal at 9650 to 10k in August and ROA might go to 13-14k range.

I am checking the CEAC data from 7425 to 8900 now and will post the summary once it is done.
 
I disagree with your 1st scenario Kayend!...
If there is no current in august...its a big challange to rest of asian embassies like Cambodia(1892) and Sri Lanka(1616) to handle the remainning cases(60-65%) within the 2 months.
 
Stalin23 said:
I disagree with your 1st scenario Kayend!...
If there is no current in august...its a big challange to rest of asian embassies like Cambodia(1892) and Sri Lanka(1616) to handle the remainning cases(60-65%) within the 2 months.
Click to expand...

I just put up the possibility that KCC might be doing. I also don't think KCC will take scenario 1 but we never know my friend.
 
Asia - 1039

Iran - 173 (Still without ABD)
Rest of Asia - 322
Nepal - 544

Nepal just updated today, it could be more selectees because the staff in KDU might be updating it while we are checking it so I will check again tomorrow.
 
Kayend said:
Based on this data, it seems like Nepal has really high take up rate too. If this density continue up to 14k since we know there are still a lot of case no between 10k to 14k for Nepalese, I totally agree with Vladek that Nepal will hit the limit below 11k. As for Iran, we can see it has lesser CN in 7425 to 8900 so far. It already have 2 out of 3 embassies data for Iran in CEAC and it only have less than 200 CN. So, next VB will jump higher than 1.5k for sure. There are 2 scenarios that will happen for Asia in next VB.

1. KCC continue to schedule Nepalese interviews up to the CN that KCC think it is enough to cover Nepal. So, it will be 11k for August and not special cut off.
2. KCC will spread the remaining 500-600 selectees needed for Nepal into 2 months, therefore it will have a special cut off for Nepal at 9650 to 10k in August and ROA might go to 13-14k range.

I am checking the CEAC data from 7425 to 8900 now and will post the summary once it is done.
Click to expand...
I'm seing more of the first senario to happen, because I'm doubting any special cutoff at the last 2 months, so my perdition for asia august is 12900+ if iranians are not maxed.
And 15k if iran is genuinely clreared.
 
This is Sri Lanka data (41 in total) and it also get update today, tomorrow might be more:

2014AS7583 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 15-Oct-12 1
2014AS7716 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 25-Oct-12 4
2014AS7728 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 1-Nov-12 5
2014AS7759 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 6-Oct-12 4
2014AS7839 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 30-Oct-12 4
2014AS7860 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 2-Nov-12 1
2014AS8196 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 17-Oct-12 1
2014AS8220 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 31-Oct-12 4
2014AS8230 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 26-Oct-12 1
2014AS8350 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 30-Oct-12 3
2014AS8359 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 22-Oct-12 1
2014AS8511 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 20-Oct-12 3
2014AS8512 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 3-Nov-12 2
2014AS8571 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 3-Oct-12 1
2014AS8644 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 22-Oct-12 1
2014AS8727 CLM Ready 2-Jun-14 24-Oct-12 5
 
vladek15425 said:
I'm seing more of the first senario to happen, because I'm doubting any special cutoff at the last 2 months, so my perdition for asia august is 12900+ if iranians are not maxed.
And 15k if iran is genuinely clreared.
Click to expand...

Iran CN not much. Iran usually has more than Nepal but if you look at the data, Iran only have 173 (even with ABD I don't think it has more than 300) vs Nepal 544. So, above 8900 CN, maybe Iran only has 100 or less per 1k CN so whether Iran max out or not, it doesn't matter in this case. What really matter is Nepal and how KCC wanted to handle Nepal remaining 500-600 selectees.
 
This is Cambodia data (51 in total) and some get update today:

2014AS7431 PHP Ready 23-May-14 15-Oct-12 1
2014AS7507 PHP Ready 23-May-14 10-Oct-12 4
2014AS7514 PHP Ready 23-May-14 22-Oct-12 1
2014AS7516 PHP Ready 23-May-14 10-Oct-12 1
2014AS7573 PHP Ready 2-Jun-14 12-Oct-12 1
2014AS7604 PHP Ready 23-May-14 14-Oct-12 1
2014AS7640 PHP Ready 23-May-14 12-Oct-12 5
2014AS7741 PHP Ready 23-May-14 19-Oct-12 1
2014AS7749 PHP Ready 23-May-14 8-Oct-12 1
2014AS7792 PHP Ready 23-May-14 30-Oct-12 1
2014AS7813 PHP Ready 23-May-14 9-Oct-12 1
2014AS7856 PHP Ready 23-May-14 1-Nov-12 2
2014AS7917 PHP Ready 23-May-14 30-Oct-12 2
2014AS7940 PHP Ready 23-May-14 26-Oct-12 1
2014AS7943 PHP Ready 23-May-14 11-Oct-12 1
2014AS7952 PHP Ready 21-May-14 28-Oct-12 1
2014AS7954 PHP Ready 21-May-14 8-Oct-12 1
2014AS8021 PHP Ready 21-May-14 11-Oct-12 1
2014AS8023 PHP Ready 21-May-14 8-Oct-12 1
2014AS8048 PHP Ready 30-May-14 22-Oct-12 1
2014AS8081 PHP Ready 23-May-14 30-Oct-12 2
2014AS8129 PHP Ready 21-May-14 28-Oct-12 1
2014AS8189 PHP Ready 21-May-14 27-Oct-12 1
2014AS8257 PHP Ready 21-May-14 16-Oct-12 1
2014AS8267 PHP Ready 21-May-14 7-Oct-12 1
2014AS8282 PHP Ready 21-May-14 10-Oct-12 1
2014AS8288 PHP Ready 21-May-14 16-Oct-12 1
2014AS8351 PHP Ready 21-May-14 28-Oct-12 1
2014AS8409 PHP Ready 21-May-14 16-Oct-12 1
2014AS8433 PHP Ready 21-May-14 18-Oct-12 1
2014AS8503 PHP Ready 23-May-14 1-Nov-12 4
2014AS8532 PHP Ready 21-May-14 7-Oct-12 1
2014AS8536 PHP Ready 21-May-14 15-Oct-12 1
2014AS8556 PHP Ready 23-May-14 11-Oct-12 2
2014AS8774 PHP Ready 2-Jun-14 18-Oct-12 1
2014AS8795 PHP Ready 21-May-14 5-Oct-12 1
2014AS8881 PHP Ready 21-May-14 29-Oct-12 1
 
Asia issued up to 8th month should be in the range of 4400 to 4500.
4385 up to today. Some still in AP before become issue, so should be around 4.5k issue after the closure of 8th month for Asia.
 
Kayend said:
Asia issued up to 8th month should be in the range of 4400 to 4500.
4385 up to today. Some still in AP before become issue, so should be around 4.5k issue after the closure of 8th month for Asia.
Click to expand...
Hi @Kayend , do you have updated CEAC data for EU region?
 
Kayend said:
Iran CN not much. Iran usually has more than Nepal but if you look at the data, Iran only have 173 (even with ABD I don't think it has more than 300) vs Nepal 544. So, above 8900 CN, maybe Iran only has 100 or less per 1k CN so whether Iran max out or not, it doesn't matter in this case. What really matter is Nepal and how KCC wanted to handle Nepal remaining 500-600 selectees.
Click to expand...
Thanks for sheding some light on iran cases, that's now an info that will affect the cutoffs indeed.
But on other hand I would like to know if somehow you sumed to total iranian cn scheduled upto 8900, because my point is how far are they from the 7% including the APs?
 
Ok, so I agree with others that Nepal will hit the 7 % limit soon (probably before 10.5k). That isn't news really, it was obvious - the high success rate made that a certainty. That is sad for Nepalese after 11k, but since it is a done deal we have to think of the rest of Asia. I hope KCC have the sense to impose a VB cutoff on Nepal now rather than waiting for further confirmation in a month. What worries me is that KCC don't seem to take account of what we see as obvious so they have to make some assumptions to avoid slowing down the rest of Asia because they don't do the math regarding Nepal.
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks for sheding some light on iran cases, that's now an info that will affect the cutoffs indeed.
But on other hand I would like to know if somehow you sumed to total iranian cn scheduled upto 8900, because my point is how far are they from the 7% including the APs?
Click to expand...

If I am not mistaken, Iran already hit 3500 interview schedule mark. I think they are in 3.7 to 3.8k already. Need to check it later to confirm.
 
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