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August visa bulletin the final.

Britsimon said:
Ok, so I agree with others that Nepal will hit the 7 % limit soon (probably before 10.5k). That isn't news really, it was obvious - the high success rate made that a certainty. That is sad for Nepalese after 11k, but since it is a done deal we have to think of the rest of Asia. I hope KCC have the sense to impose a VB cutoff on Nepal now rather than waiting for further confirmation in a month. What worries me is that KCC don't seem to take account of what we see as obvious so they have to make some assumptions to avoid slowing down the rest of Asia because they don't do the math regarding Nepal.
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I think KCC know that special countries does slow others down in all regions, that's why they limit the special countries from 6k to 5k in dv15. Since they aware this is an issue, I think chances are very high they will stop any special countries after running for 10 months and give chances to others.

If we looked back the data in CEAC up to now, it actually make complete sense not to limit Iran and Nepal from day one because in order to complete process them, it still need at least 10 months. And 11th and 12th month, they should give the chances to Sri Lanka and Cambodia because both also have more than 1k selectees and up to now, it not even process half of them.

Based on the average density and success rate, Rest of Asia should have around 5k to 6k selectees schedule for interviews and that should be around 18k to 20k CN, so I still don't think Asia will go current.
 
Kayend said:
If I am not mistaken, Iran already hit 3500 interview schedule mark. I think they are in 3.7 to 3.8k already. Need to check it later to confirm.
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Than is it good news for the ROA!
I still believe that kcc will make a bigger cutoff if the two heavy weights are about to hit the limit.
2013 senario.
 
Kayend said:
I think KCC know that special countries does slow others down in all regions, that's why they limit the special countries from 6k to 5k in dv15. Since they aware this is an issue, I think chances are very high they will stop any special countries after running for 10 months and give chances to others.

If we looked back the data in CEAC up to now, it actually make complete sense not to limit Iran and Nepal from day one because in order to complete process them, it still need at least 10 months. And 11th and 12th month, they should give the chances to Sri Lanka and Cambodia because both also have more than 1k selectees and up to now, it not even process half of them.

Based on the average density and success rate, Rest of Asia should have around 5k to 6k selectees schedule for interviews and that should be around 18k to 20k CN, so I still don't think Asia will go current.
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No, this has been handled badly and they continue to make stupid decisions. The 6 k to 5k change is another example of that. Very few countries can hit the 7% limit with 6k selectees. AF countries don't even get close. The concept of the limit to 6k is dubious already but to apply that to the whole world because of Nepal is clumsy.

As for it making sense - no, it can't agree with that either. They have wasted all that processing capacity go other embassies so that capacity will be an issue when it didn't need to be. I hope to see a limit for Nepal in The next VB but they should have done that already.
 
Britsimon said:
No, this has been handled badly and they continue to make stupid decisions. The 6 k to 5k change is another example of that. Very few countries can hit the 7% limit with 6k selectees. AF countries don't even get close. The concept of the limit to 6k is dubious already but to apply that to the whole world because of Nepal is clumsy.

As for it making sense - no, it can't agree with that either. They have wasted all that processing capacity go other embassies so that capacity will be an issue when it didn't need to be. I hope to see a limit for Nepal in The next VB but they should have done that already.
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Simon
Im expecting a huge amount of second-holes fron the rest of asia ( irak,syria,lebanon...) Due to political and economical instability, so my guess thats why kcc didnt put nepal on special Cutoff earlier and i doubt that it will happen!
What do you think?
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon
Im expecting a huge amount of second-holes fron the rest of asia ( irak,syria,lebanon...) Due to political and economical instability, so my guess thats why kcc didnt put nepal on special Cutoff earlier and i doubt that it will happen!
What do you think?
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Lol. You and those darn second holes. As we have discussed before, there is no explanation of why there might be more second holes this year, and I haven't seen any proof that it is happening - so no, that is not an excuse for KCC to have messed this up.
 
Britsimon said:
Lol. You and those darn second holes. As we have discussed before, there is no explanation of why there might be more second holes this year, and I haven't seen any proof that it is happening - so no, that is not an excuse for KCC to have messed this up.
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Hahaha :p
 
According to the below success rates...
Nepal -85% success rate
Iran-75% success rate

If Asia will become current in August.
Cut off for August
Nepal - (9.6k-9.7k)
Iran - (10.8k-10.9k)

Cut off for September
Nepal-(10.6k-10.7k)
Iran-(12.4k-12.5k)
 
vladek15425 said:
Please simon ! I need those numbers I won't survive the weekend without it :(
Ask sirpercy to do something about it ?!
Iam serious :p
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I am certain that Sir Percy will use all of his influence and contacts at KCC and USCIS to get the numbers this week.

Sadly though he has no contacts at KCC or USCIS and not even KFC. He also has no influence. At all. So - don't hold your breath.
 
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