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August visa bulletin the final.

Please Sir, could I have OC at 1800 this week
puss-in-boots.png
 
KingKong said:
First of all, I need to thank all of you who provide so much useful information and insights for the DV process. I’m one of the guys who check the forum every few hours. The whole process is so stressful. It’s good to know so many of you walk through the process with me.

My cn is around AS11.5k (DV2014). I downloaded the CEAC data extracted in last May and try to predict my DV fate. I did something scenario analyses and would like to share the results with you guys and check whether I missed anything important or any of my assumptions is not reasonable. In short, I think my cn is at the borderline. I hope that I’m wrong and more high CN case will be processed in Aug and Sep.

Here are the values/assumptions for the analyses:

Total visa: 53500

AS quota: 9630 (18% of total visa)

Country limit: 3745 (7% of total visa)

Nepal

case/1000CN: 210

Dependents/case: 1.85

Selectee/1000CN: 388 (210 X 1.85)

Total cases: 3295 (6082/1.85)

Issue rate: 95% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Iran

case/1000CN: 257

Dependents/case: 2.02

Selectee/1000CN: 520 (257 X 2.02)

Total cases: 2977 (6027/2.02)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

The rest of Asia

case/1000CN: 132

Dependents/case: 1.95

Selectee/1000CN: 258 (132 X 1.95)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Total cases: 5721 (11161/1.95)



Results

Scenario 1 (based on the above values)

~CN10200: Nepal will hit country limit

~CN10300: Iran will hit country limit (assuming some AP cases will be resolved by the end of Sep. It happened last year. So I think Iran will hit the country limit again this year)

~CN12000: Asia will hit the regional limit

Scenario 2

I found out that one of the critical factors for the rest of Asia is how many visa available. If the AS regional quota is just 500 more (10.1k, 19% of the total), the max CN will jump 3k to 15k.

Scenario 3

If the total visa is higher, say 54500. Asia will get 9.8k visa at 18% and 10.3k at 19%. Because the country limit will also increase to 3815 (7% of 5400), the max CN increase will be minimal.

Scenario 4

Of course, another factor is how KCC handles Iran AP cases. With 9.6k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

a) 60%: the max CN is will ~ 12k.

b) 50%: the max CN is will ~13.5k

c) 40%: the max CN is will ~15.2k

With 10.1k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

d) 60%: the max CN is will ~15k.

e) 50%: the max CN is will ~15k

f) 40%: the max CN is will ~16.5k

I don’t how KCC handle the situation. If KCC ignore the AP cases and keep scheduling new cases, the max CN may be around 15.2k-16.5k depends on the regional quote. If KCC makes an educated guess on how many AP cases can be resolved by the end of Sep., the max CN for Asia may be around 12-15k. Bear in mind that the above analyses do not take AOS cases in to consideration. Please let me know what you think about my analyses. Again, I hope that my calculation is totally wrong and all high CN will be processed. But, these are the results based on the limited available information.
Click to expand...
Thanks for these calculations, they seems plausible to me.
 
Mijoro said:
Vladdy using his formula is it possible to work out the final cut off ( or near to) for Oceania?
Click to expand...
Yes you can apply it like kingkong did.

I worked it out quickly:
1st senario;Oc quota : same as 2013, 730 visa = 1800 cn.
2nd senario oc quota 850 visas = cn 2100
3th senario oc quota 950 visas =cn 2400

So all depends on the quota allocated and the nacara input.
 
Does anybody know if the US States give any benefits to the new comers? For example, free housing or monetary assistance? I just hear from a winner of DV2014 whom will leave for USA next week that in embassy they gave to him a letter where was written that he will have free housing and assistance till he get a job.
I will appreciate your comments.
 
levi2al said:
Does anybody know if the US States give any benefits to the new comers? For example, free housing or monetary assistance? I just hear from a winner of DV2014 whom will leave for USA next week that in embassy they gave to him a letter where was written that he will have free housing and assistance till he get a job.
I will appreciate your comments.
Click to expand...

No
 
levi2al said:
Does anybody know if the US States give any benefits to the new comers? For example, free housing or monetary assistance? I just hear from a winner of DV2014 whom will leave for USA next week that in embassy they gave to him a letter where was written that he will have free housing and assistance till he get a job.
I will appreciate your comments.
Click to expand...

Hmmm... might be they also will buy him a car? :)
 
levi2al said:
Does anybody know if the US States give any benefits to the new comers? For example, free housing or monetary assistance? I just hear from a winner of DV2014 whom will leave for USA next week that in embassy they gave to him a letter where was written that he will have free housing and assistance till he get a job.
I will appreciate your comments.
Click to expand...

He LIED! No US embassy does that because the US government has no support structure in place per se for new immigrants.
 
levi2al said:
Does anybody know if the US States give any benefits to the new comers? For example, free housing or monetary assistance? I just hear from a winner of DV2014 whom will leave for USA next week that in embassy they gave to him a letter where was written that he will have free housing and assistance till he get a job.
I will appreciate your comments.
Click to expand...
Sure! maybe he show the embassy that he WILL become a public charge and they happily gave him the precious GC because... what's better that bring in people who needs assistance? That's perfect for the economy. Hmmm... maybe I should apply for free private school for my girl!!!
 
[QUOT="KingKong, post: 1134, member: 139"]First of all, I need to thank all of you who provide so much useful information and insights for the DV process. I’m one of the guys who check the forum every few hours. The whole process is so stressful. It’s good to know so many of you walk through the process with me.

My cn is around AS11.5k (DV2014). I downloaded the CEAC data extracted in last May and try to predict my DV fate. I did something scenario analyses and would like to share the results with you guys and check whether I missed anything important or any of my assumptions is not reasonable. In short, I think my cn is at the borderline. I hope that I’m wrong and more high CN case will be processed in Aug and Sep.

Here are the values/assumptions for the analyses:

Total visa: 53500

AS quota: 9630 (18% of total visa)

Country limit: 3745 (7% of total visa)

Nepal

case/1000CN: 210

Dependents/case: 1.85

Selectee/1000CN: 388 (210 X 1.85)

Total cases: 3295 (6082/1.85)

Issue rate: 95% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Iran

case/1000CN: 257

Dependents/case: 2.02

Selectee/1000CN: 520 (257 X 2.02)

Total cases: 2977 (6027/2.02)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

The rest of Asia

case/1000CN: 132

Dependents/case: 1.95

Selectee/1000CN: 258 (132 X 1.95)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Total cases: 5721 (11161/1.95)



Results

Scenario 1 (based on the above values)

~CN10200: Nepal will hit country limit

~CN10300: Iran will hit country limit (assuming some AP cases will be resolved by the end of Sep. It happened last year. So I think Iran will hit the country limit again this year)

~CN12000: Asia will hit the regional limit

Scenario 2

I found out that one of the critical factors for the rest of Asia is how many visa available. If the AS regional quota is just 500 more (10.1k, 19% of the total), the max CN will jump 3k to 15k.

Scenario 3

If the total visa is higher, say 54500. Asia will get 9.8k visa at 18% and 10.3k at 19%. Because the country limit will also increase to 3815 (7% of 5400), the max CN increase will be minimal.

Scenario 4

Of course, another factor is how KCC handles Iran AP cases. With 9.6k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

a) 60%: the max CN is will ~ 12k.

b) 50%: the max CN is will ~13.5k

c) 40%: the max CN is will ~15.2k

With 10.1k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

d) 60%: the max CN is will ~15k.

e) 50%: the max CN is will ~15k

f) 40%: the max CN is will ~16.5k

I don’t how KCC handle the situation. If KCC ignore the AP cases and keep scheduling new cases, the max CN may be around 15.2k-16.5k depends on the regional quote. If KCC makes an educated guess on how many AP cases can be resolved by the end of Sep., the max CN for Asia may be around 12-15k. Bear in mind that the above analyses do not take AOS cases in to consideration. Please let me know what you think about my analyses. Again, I hope that my calculation is totally wrong and all high CN will be processed. But, these are the results based on the limited available information.[/QUOTE]
Very interesting and pertinent. ... thanks too much , it was a real pleasure to read your post...
 
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