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August visa bulletin the final.

CWH said:
thanks susie cute cute cute :p the cutoff date to process applications for a month is not released to the public, right?

my sister's CN is AS132xx (rest of asia, not giant four), do you think she has a chance to get an interview early in sept?
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Yes, if your country have relatively low immigration applicants to US then your interview will be most likely 1st or 2nd week of the month.
 
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raevsky said:
Visas for Iran in DV-13 were exhausted on Sept. 20th.
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Yes, this could be a rough indication but I think the visa exhaustion might be different by regions because the # of embassy processing it, how many country still have high interview appointments for Sept and AP clearing rate in the final month are all different in different regions.
 
AU.Dan said:
I have been trying to find regional quota's listed on .gov sites and the only time they seem to have published them is in 95 and 96 which are pre NACARA days. Does anyone have any more recent publications.

The allotment of FY-1995 visa numbers for each region is as follows:
Africa, 20,200; Asia, 6,837; Europe, 24,549; North America (Bahamas), 8;
South America, Central America, and the Caribbean, 2,589; and Oceania, 817.

The allotment of FY-1996 visa numbers for each region is as follows:
Africa, 20,426; Asia, 7,087; Europe, 24,257; North America (Bahamas), 8;
South America, Central America, and the Caribbean, 2,407; and Oceania, 815.
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Where you get this? This doesn't look like a quota to me. Maybe in the old days they have such as precise quota. Anyway, with recent DV, EU has been reduced and AF and AS has been increased a little. Based on DV13, we can roughly work out the so called regional quotas.

(with assumption of 54.5k visas - NACARA 4.5k)
AF: 24.5k
AS: 9.8k
EU: 18k
OC: 1k
SA: 1.2k
 
Anyone can predict will they be able to increase the cutoff range in Sep than August ? or will they reduce it in Sep than Aug ??? I'm completely loss since my CN is in 18.5k in AS......... I don't know what will happen to me if i missed this chance......... please can anyone advise on this........
 
Kayend said:
Where you get this? This doesn't look like a quota to me. Maybe in the old days they have such as precise quota. Anyway, with recent DV, EU has been reduced and AF and AS has been increased a little. Based on DV13, we can roughly work out the so called regional quotas.

(with assumption of 54.5k visas - NACARA 4.5k)
AF: 24.5k
AS: 9.8k
EU: 18k
OC: 1k
SA: 1.2k
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It's from http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/ which you find on the Visa Bulletin page http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html
 
nerandima said:
Anyone can predict will they be able to increase the cutoff range in Sep than August ? or will they reduce it in Sep than Aug ??? I'm completely loss since my CN is in 18.5k in AS......... I don't know what will happen to me if i missed this chance......... please can anyone advise on this........
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No one has any way to give you anything more than an educated guess. The only thing you can do is wait for the next VB. I hope you have good luck.
 
neko83 said:
Well I'm glad as a country we are tricking the world, and people can't see that we're actually circling the drain.

It does irritate me seeing comments like this about Australia. While it's a fantastic country and will always "be home", there are job losses occurring everywhere, major manufacturing industry is on it's last legs and will be progressively closing down over the next few years (leading to more job losses), my land rates just went up by over 10%, I've got a bunch of new taxes I need to start paying this year, all incentives to re-invest money into the country are gone because they're taxed at stupid rates now. Oh, we've also got one of the highest costs of living in the world... It's fun paying almost $1 million USD for a shitbox house in a soul neighbourhood.

We didn't escape the GFC, we're just late to the party.
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Yes. But your citizens don't face the prospect of barricading themselves in their homes at night with electric fences and razor wire to feel safe, or risk getting locked up without trial or worse for expressing political opinions, or as in a few cases (not just the ones that make the headlines) have your country descend into civil war. I'm not talking about the problems associated with economy going into a downturn for a while, I'm talking about the basic right of being able to live without fear and repression. So while it may "irritate" you to see those comments, that is because you are lucky enough to come from somewhere where losing your job and paying higher taxes seem to be about the worst things that can happen. There are many people here who do not have the same privilege.
 
nerandima said:
Anyone can predict will they be able to increase the cutoff range in Sep than August ? or will they reduce it in Sep than Aug ??? I'm completely loss since my CN is in 18.5k in AS......... I don't know what will happen to me if i missed this chance......... please can anyone advise on this........
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My guess is that AS will be scheduling 13k selectees for interviews and around 3k fall out with the following breakdown:

1k - No show
1k - AP unclear
500 - Refused
500 - Excess from Nepal and Iran

Up to July cut off Asia already have scheduled 10k selectees for interviews so we have 3k selectees more for Aug and Sept.

In Aug, Nepal should takes 200 and Rest of Asia takes 1k = 1.2k
In Sept, we should have 1.8k or so for interviews and assuming Nepal will take additional 200 and Iran no longer in the run.

In term of CN, I expect it to jump 6400. (1.8k - 200 = 1.6k / 250(ROA density per 1k))

So it is possible to reach 19.1k in the final cut off. But again any of the factor above have a slight change it will greatly impact the final cut off. Remember just 250 visa slots and it can move 1k CN.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Yes. But your citizens don't face the prospect of barricading themselves in their homes at night with electric fences and razor wire to feel safe, or risk getting locked up without trial or worse for expressing political opinions, or as in a few cases (not just the ones that make the headlines) have your country descend into civil war. I'm not talking about the problems associated with economy going into a downturn for a while, I'm talking about the basic right of being able to live without fear and repression. So while it may "irritate" you to see those comments, that is because you are lucky enough to come from somewhere where losing your job and paying higher taxes seem to be about the worst things that can happen. There are many people here who do not have the same privilege.
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I thought maybe the post above may have been seen as emotional. So here are some more objective assessments (ie not Susie's opinion!!) of these factors.

Homicide rates, political freedom, ongoing armed conflicts, corruption as a basic sample. I've gone for pages that show "world at a glance" maps as it is easier than trawling through lists. If anyone has suggestions for other things happy to add on. For people living in a number of of these countries things like tax rates and property prices are a minor irritant compared to wondering if your child is going to survive into adulthood.

What is interesting of course is that on these measures Australia actually fares better than the US. But the US is still way better than most of the rest of the world. And that is why there is such a large push factor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2013/results/

Would we ever see scenes like the photos in the article below in Australia (or US)?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...other-countries-where-protests-have-unfolded/

This is just predictions at the end of last year but there is obviously a lot in terms of the fabric of society underlying them (happy people don't protest): http://www.economist.com/blogs/theworldin2014/2013/12/social-unrest-2014

Hopefully those go some way to showing what is meant by Australia being a safe country. And also showing why the US is still so attractive to so many people from around a world.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Yes. But your citizens don't face the prospect of barricading themselves in their homes at night with electric fences and razor wire to feel safe, or risk getting locked up without trial or worse for expressing political opinions, or as in a few cases (not just the ones that make the headlines) have your country descend into civil war. I'm not talking about the problems associated with economy going into a downturn for a while, I'm talking about the basic right of being able to live without fear and repression. So while it may "irritate" you to see those comments, that is because you are lucky enough to come from somewhere where losing your job and paying higher taxes seem to be about the worst things that can happen. There are many people here who do not have the same privilege.
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All true, but humans are maximisers. With the prospect of significantly reduced QoL, who can blame Aussies for desperately wanting out?

The future, in terms of consumer goods and even catalysts for crime, looks bleak.

Australia is about the fall off an economic cliff with little hope of recovery. We have no large industries to pull us back up. There is very little research or value-add production in Australia, and there's no prospect of that starting. It's just not a priority for our government or the bulk of our population. We produce legions of design engineers, for instance, but those who stay in Australia don't design anything -- they simply become managers. Our only substantial exports are primary products. We have a few mines, most of which are foreign owned, and none of which are large employers -- even in 'flow-on' industries. We have agriculture, but are undercut by developing countries and fenced out with tariffs.

Most people are employed in low-to-middle skilled jobs in administration (including accounting, management and low-end 'white-collar' jobs), hospitality and human services; all of which are exposed to bottomless downward wage pressure. It's entirely conceivable that five years from now, the median Australian will have a small fraction of the purchasing power he or she does now. We're going to see a large disenfranchised, undereducated, exurban working poor. They'll be commuting hours to work in poorly-paid jobs and won't be able to afford the basics. Many will choose to opt out and we'll see the social costs of that.

It's not going to be pretty. Sure, it won't be civil war, but it will be a large reduction in quality of life in this country. Many folks want 'out' to realise their potential and to make good on expensive educations. There's no good in dismissing them.
 
connectedspace said:
All true, but humans are maximisers. With the prospect of significantly reduced QoL, who can blame Aussies for desperately wanting out?

The future, in terms of consumer goods and even catalysts for crime, looks bleak.

Australia is about the fall off an economic cliff with little hope of recovery. We have no large industries to pull us back up. There is very little research or value-add production in Australia, and there's no prospect of that starting. It's just not a priority for our government or the bulk of our population. We produce legions of design engineers, for instance, but those who stay in Australia don't design anything -- they simply become managers. Our only substantial exports are primary products. We have a few mines, most of which are foreign owned, and none of which are large employers -- even in 'flow-on' industries. We have agriculture, but are undercut by developing countries and fenced out with tariffs.

Most people are employed in low-to-middle skilled jobs in administration (including accounting, management and low-end 'white-collar' jobs), hospitality and human services; all of which are exposed to bottomless downward wage pressure. It's entirely conceivable that five years from now, the median Australian will have a small fraction of the purchasing power he or she does now. We're going to see a large disenfranchised, undereducated, exurban working poor. They'll be commuting hours to work in poorly-paid jobs and won't be able to afford the basics. Many will choose to opt out and we'll see the social costs of that.

It's not going to be pretty. Sure, it won't be civil war, but it will be a large reduction in quality of life in this country. Many folks want 'out' to realise their potential and to make good on expensive educations. There's no good in dismissing them.
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I can see people want out. I can see people there look ahead and see how much worse it will be compared to what they had before. They just have no inkling of of how the vast majority of the world's population would (and sometimes do in fact) risk life and limb to have these same kind of problems. Surely you have to admit there is a difference between "reduction in quality of life" (from one of the world's best, let's not forget, as someone posted not long ago those rankings showing how high Australia is) and potentially being killed just for being of the wrong ethnic or religious or political persuasion.
 
LMAO, why stop now Sloner you have been spreading your manure for the last 13 months don't blame me cause you have been proven wrong time and time again.
 
As for Aussies wanting to go to America, why should we not be given the chance to move to and work in America just like everyone else? No where did I read in the process that a requirement was to come from a poorer county or one torn a part by civil war and such. I absolutely agree that in general we have a comfortable life here in Australia, however I am pretty sure there are people in Europe who earn more than me who have applied and completed the DV ( cough cough simon cough cough) and strangely no one begrudges them the opportunity. I am sure there are people in the African continent that have a much higher standard of living than your every day aussie who have applied for and successfully completed the DV lottery. So to say "why bother" or "its better in Australia" is just plain ignorant. Yes I am sure there are people from OC who have applied just for laughs but I am sure that is true of many other places as well.
 
I am from Népal with case number 97##. I came to know that Népal hit the country limit ( ie 9500) Is that true??? Is there any hope for Nepalese case number above 9500 till september or the Game is over for Nepalese selectees??
 
sastisha said:
I am from Népal with case number 97##. I came to know that Népal hit the country limit ( ie 9500) Is that true??? Is there any hope for Nepalese case number above 9500 till september or the Game is over for Nepalese selectees??
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No !
Nepal is about to hit the limit 7% but not yet.
9500 is just a special cutoff, to hold back
Nepal and give more chance for the rest of asia.
 
CEAC DATA FOR NEPALESE UPTO 8900

AP = 219
Issue = 2238
Ready = 918
Transfer in process = 1
TOTAL = 3376

It is conform that country limit 7% is base on the 55000
So,
Balance Visa = 3850 - 3376 + 58 (AP of march interview upto 4325 is not made issue ) + 150 appx.( Ready 918 & balance AP isn't made issue ) = 682
 
biratnagar said:
CEAC DATA FOR NEPALESE UPTO 8900

AP = 219
Issue = 2238
Ready = 918
Transfer in process = 1
TOTAL = 3376

It is conform that country limit 7% is base on the 55000
So,
Balance Visa = 3850 - 3376 + 58 (AP of march interview upto 4325 is not made issue ) + 150 appx.( Ready 918 & balance AP isn't made issue ) = 682
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Up to 8900 = 3415.

Giving Nepal with even 49 cases in every 100 CN range between 8900~9500 = 294 which is very unlikely.
Gives us 3709.
Now:
- 71 refusal.
- 100 readys ( non show-up)
= 3538.
Bear in mind I exaggerated the density with 8900~9500 cut-off, to cover any AOS or outside CPs.
We left with 200 visas which can stretch the final cut-off easy to 10000.

Good luck to all.
 
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