August 2022 Visa Bulletin

[SusieQQQ]

That's 708 cases (just counting the principal applicants) sent to USCIS. Brenda Grewe's declaration also says that 712 visa numbers (applicant+derivative) were used, i.e. approved cases.

708 cases and only 4 derivatives attached to them? That sounds unnaturally low.

 

[Butters]

708 cases and only 4 derivatives attached to them? That sounds unnaturally low.

No. 708 cases have had their ds260 sent to USCIS. Miles said he can't count the derivatives. For example: If the derivative rate is 2, then that's 1416 people.
712 is Brenda Grewe's declaration. This is for visa numbers for all people in the cases. So, if the derivative rate is 2, then that's 356 cases that were approved. That means 352 cases are sent to USCIS and haven't had visa numbers sent to them(i.e. pending approval)

Of course, I don't know the derivatives rate for AOS cases and the approval rate. So, used hypothetical, just to explain the numbers.Also, these declarations are the numbers by the end of July. However, I don't know about AOS, but most must bave had their DS260 sent to USCIS by KCC already. KCC processed all DS260s a month ago.

 

[SusieQQQ]

No. 708 cases have had their ds260 sent to USCIS. Miles said he can't count the derivatives. For example: If the derivative rate is 2, then that's 1416 people.
712 is Brenda Grewe's declaration. This is for visa numbers for all people in the cases. So, if the derivative rate is 2, then that's 356 cases that were approved. That means 352 cases are sent to USCIS and haven't had visa numbers sent to them(i.e. pending approval)

Of course, I don't know the derivatives rate for AOS cases and the approval rate. So, used hypothetical, just to explain the numbers.Also, these declarations are the numbers by the end of July. However, I don't know about AOS, but most must bave had their DS260 sent to USCIS by KCC already. KCC processed all DS260s a month ago.

Many AOS cases don’t submit DS260s. KCC knows about those only because/when they pay the AOS fee.

 

[Britsimon]

That doesn’t seem accurate. i calculate they issued nearly 7000 diversity visas in June - official stats here https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/JUNE 2022 - IV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf
- and that is with some embassies still way under capacity (just 7 issued at Accra, for example). I agree 29k for September sounds impossibly high, but the figures also seem to be well north of the 4000 max you are assuming. On the face of it they seem to be trying their utmost to reach the quota (whether or not they get there is another story).

I know BritSimon uploaded a video about AOS number availability recently, i am one of the few who prefers reading to videos, so if anyone would summarize his conclusions in a couple of sentences I’d be grateful -

KCC scheduled almost 15k people for August interviews and 10K for September. They have done an impressive job of trying to hit the numbers - we had never seen monthly numbers of anything like this before.

 

[Britsimon]

Many AOS cases don’t submit DS260s. KCC knows about those only because/when they pay the AOS fee.

Agreed - the 708 will be based on receipts, not DS260s.

 

[Britsimon]

So back to Simon’s analysis. that sounds like a massive amount of visas per month, even more than what already seems to be so high (admittedly with as I said some under capacity, but others are just closed and will remain so - Moscow and Kyiv) . But anyway, whatever the actual number for scheduled interviews is, what is almost certainly true is that almost all remaining visa numbers for CP have already been pre-allocated, as most September interviews have probably been scheduled by now. From my memory it is has been rare that AOS cases have been turned down for lack of visa numbers, and when it has happened it has been very close to the end of the FY, but the implications of (my reading of jeanmobayed‘s interpretation of) Simon’s analysis is that if the large pre allocations are correct, we could see it happening sooner this year. Not trying to panic anyone - don’t get me wrong. But IF Simon’s numbers are accurate, and if it were me still waiting, I’d be doing congressperson etc.

Does anyone have insight as to how many AOS DV cases have been completed this year? I know annual numbers are available but I don’t know if more frequent data is released.

I see you were ahead of me in terms of a warning to AOSers. The data is accurate (as much as it can be), and I just gave an explanation on the AOS thread why that might be a concern for them. So yeah - congress person etc.

The latest official figures available are a bit old so only show 111 AOS visas issued, so @Xarthisius tells me.

 

[SusieQQQ]

KCC scheduled almost 15k people for August interviews and 10K for September. They have done an impressive job of trying to hit the numbers - we had never seen monthly numbers of anything like this before.

Impressive for sure, but not anywhere near 29k in a single month. I suspect that the poster that mentioned that number was looking at the total for the remained of the FY, or something like that.

Issuance has been amazing especially considering a number of big embassies like Accra, kyiv, Moscow are either closed or issuing almost no DVs.

 

[Britsimon]

Impressive for sure, but not anywhere near 29k in a single month. I suspect that the poster that mentioned that number was looking at the total for the remained of the FY, or something like that.

Issuance has been amazing especially considering a number of big embassies like Accra, kyiv, Moscow are either closed or issuing almost no DVs.

Yep. Warsaw and Frankfurt in particular did well, but the way that interviews were spread among embassies was pretty amazing.

 

[equilibreme]

Hello @Britsimon
In AOS thread you mention

The CP visa recycling will happen at the end of August so there will be visas at the beginning of September. However, there are about 7K AP cases in flight, so if they clear them, they will be drawing from the same pot that AOS draws from. Things are tight because I estimate almost all the 54850 have been scheduled. The SaveDiversity Ready number is overstated, but we do know that at the end of July there were about 30K issued and then KCC scheduled over 24K people in August and September. So - very close to all being scheduled. I expect about 4K, perhaps 5K recycled visas at the end of August, and KCC reported they sent 708 cases to USCIS (about 1400/1500 people).

1. Do we know who has more priority for recycled visa ? AP cleared cases or interviewed AOS case that waits for visa ?
2. I'm wonder if someone knows what would be the process for interviewed AOS case that waits for visa, considering there are no AP cases, and no visa available atm, will IVAMS automatically allocate interviewed AOS case visa as visa recycle happens, or Immigration Officer have to trigger something manually.

I'm trying to understand visa allocation process for interviewed AOS cases

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hello @Britsimon
In AOS thread you mention

1. Do we know who has more priority for recycled visa ? AP cleared cases or interviewed AOS case that waits for visa ?
2. I'm wonder if someone knows what would be the process for interviewed AOS case that waits for visa, considering there are no AP cases, and no visa available atm, will IVAMS automatically allocate interviewed AOS case visa as visa recycle happens, or Immigration Officer have to trigger something manually.

I'm trying to understand visa allocation process for interviewed AOS cases

Judging by the few past reports of such instances here, if a visa number is not available when requested via IVAMS with reason being no more visa numbers available, the case is refused. They don’t keep the cases open.

 

[Britsimon]

Hello @Britsimon
In AOS thread you mention

1. Do we know who has more priority for recycled visa ? AP cleared cases or interviewed AOS case that waits for visa ?
2. I'm wonder if someone knows what would be the process for interviewed AOS case that waits for visa, considering there are no AP cases, and no visa available atm, will IVAMS automatically allocate interviewed AOS case visa as visa recycle happens, or Immigration Officer have to trigger something manually.

I'm trying to understand visa allocation process for interviewed AOS cases

1. There is no formal priority as far as I know - more a question of luck.
2. Manually triggered - see below.

Judging by the few past reports of such instances here, if a visa number is not available when requested via IVAMS with reason being no more visa numbers available, the case is refused. They don’t keep the cases open.

I think Susie is correct, and that could be an important point for some cases depending on timing. If someone were to be interviewed later this month the system might not have visas available - so if someone is in that position they should ask the IO to try again in very early September.

 

[equilibreme]

Judging by the few past reports of such instances here, if a visa number is not available when requested via IVAMS with reason being no more visa numbers available, the case is refused. They don’t keep the cases open.

That sounds scary, but can we ask to check our cases again after it been refused ?
I’m trying to initiate congressional inquiry for my case to be reviewed asap, waiting for waived intv (my FO this year waiving intv), but I have a feelings that IO will review my case ~Aug 23-27 (used to 1 month after bio)
And what I should do in case of refusal, idk my IO

Thanks @Britsimon

 

[equilibreme]

Year​	Issued​	Refused​	AP​	Ready​	Total​	Total - Refused​	Total - Refused - AP​
2013​	45365​	9749​	2378​	5804​	63296​	53475​	51097​
2014​	50766​	10121​	4429​	6787​	72103​	61982​	57553​
2015​	47897​	8301​	3335​	6428​	65961​	57660​	54325​
2016​	45653​	11065​	9​	4972​	61699​	50634​	50625​
2017​	48737​	9073​	4504​	4466​	66780​	57707​	53203​
2018​	47806​	12318​	3963​	6951​	71038​	58720​	54757​
2019​	43793​	10271​	2236​	1936​	58236​	47965​	45729​
2022​	33207​	4589​	7795​	25172​	70763​	66174​	58379​

Summarize stats from xarthisius dvcharts, I think we also had something similar in 2018 and 2014
I looked at 2014 & 2018 timelines records
2014 - I found latest CPO in the middle of August and for September 12 days til end of FY.
For 2018 we have more data to compare and some fellows had CPO in range 8 - 31 Aug and 3 - 28 Sept, 3 days prior end of FY.
Card Production Ordered (CPO)