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August 2022 Visa Bulletin

Xarthisius

Xarthisius

Well-Known Member
C. THE DIVERSITY (DV) IMMIGRANT CATEGORY RANK CUT-OFFS WHICH WILL APPLY IN SEPTEMBER

RegionAll DV Chargeability Areas Except
Those Listed Separately
AFRICACurrent
ASIACurrent
EUROPECurrent
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)Current
OCEANIACurrent
SOUTH AMERICA,
and the CARIBBEAN		Current

Also DV23 numbers are out: 119,262 prospective applicants (i.e., selectees and their spouses and children) selected at random from 9,570,291 qualified entries.
 
Good morning @Sm1smom

This year, different than previous years, there are so many interviews already scheduled overseas embassies for August and even September now. Already more than 31K visas have been issued, 29K have been scheduled or being scheduled for September. So, considering the roughly 55K limit, this limit will be reached before even September ends. (Savediversityvisa and dvcharts website update the numbers often.)

So, my concern is that if anybody gets their interview after the beginning of September, there is a high risk of not having a visa. Do you think it might be a good idea to make the congressional inquiry now as that process takes time? I am thinking of waiting this week, if nothing happens, go to my rep's office on Monday.

Thank you.
 
archeronfield said:
Good morning @Sm1smom

This year, different than previous years, there are so many interviews already scheduled overseas embassies for August and even September now. Already more than 31K visas have been issued, 29K have been scheduled or being scheduled for September. So, considering the roughly 55K limit, this limit will be reached before even September ends. (Savediversityvisa and dvcharts website update the numbers often.)

So, my concern is that if anybody gets their interview after the beginning of September, there is a high risk of not having a visa. Do you think it might be a good idea to make the congressional inquiry now as that process takes time? I am thinking of waiting this week, if nothing happens, go to my rep's office on Monday.

Thank you.
Click to expand...
Good morning. At this point, all I can say is follow your instincts. If contacting your congress person now puts your mind at rest, then by go ahead and do so.
 
archeronfield said:
Good morning @Sm1smom

This year, different than previous years, there are so many interviews already scheduled overseas embassies for August and even September now. Already more than 31K visas have been issued, 29K have been scheduled or being scheduled for September. So, considering the roughly 55K limit, this limit will be reached before even September ends. (Savediversityvisa and dvcharts website update the numbers often.)

So, my concern is that if anybody gets their interview after the beginning of September, there is a high risk of not having a visa. Do you think it might be a good idea to make the congressional inquiry now as that process takes time? I am thinking of waiting this week, if nothing happens, go to my rep's office on Monday.

Thank you.
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How do you know that KCC have scheduled 29K people for September? There’s no way they’re able to schedule that many. Right now they’re scheduling about 4000 people per month max.. I don’t think you need to worry about the visa quota.
 
Angel115 said:
How do you know that KCC have scheduled 29K people for September? There’s no way they’re able to schedule that many. Right now they’re scheduling about 4000 people per month max.. I don’t think you need to worry about the visa quota.
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That doesn’t seem accurate. i calculate they issued nearly 7000 diversity visas in June - official stats here https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/JUNE 2022 - IV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf
- and that is with some embassies still way under capacity (just 7 issued at Accra, for example). I agree 29k for September sounds impossibly high, but the figures also seem to be well north of the 4000 max you are assuming. On the face of it they seem to be trying their utmost to reach the quota (whether or not they get there is another story).

I know BritSimon uploaded a video about AOS number availability recently, i am one of the few who prefers reading to videos, so if anyone would summarize his conclusions in a couple of sentences I’d be grateful -
 
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SusieQQQ said:
That doesn’t seem accurate. i calculate they issued nearly 7000 diversity visas in June - official stats here, and that is with some embassies still way under capacity (just 7 issued at Accra, for example). I agree 29k for September sounds impossibly high, but the figures also seem to be well north of the 4000 max you are assuming. On the face of it they seem to be trying their utmost to reach the quota (whether or not they get there is another story).

I know BritSimon uploaded a video about AOS number availability recently, i am one of the few who prefers reading to videos, so if anyone would summarize his conclusions in a couple of sentences I’d be grateful -
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Hello guys,

Simon in his video was talking about how we might be getting close to hitting the quota, specially of "allocated visas" for CP, which may impact AOS. He took Xarthisius data (cannot post the link) and did some calculations based on those numbers, long story short, he estimates there are around 24000 people scheduled for August and September, between those cases and all the potential AP cases closing in the next few weeks, he believes we will get close to 54850 visas issued, but probably not 54850.
 
jeanmobayed said:
Hello guys,

Simon in his video was talking about how we might be getting close to hitting the quota, specially of "allocated visas" for CP, which may impact AOS. He took Xarthisius data (cannot post the link) and did some calculations based on those numbers, long story short, he estimates there are around 24000 people scheduled for August and September, between those cases and all the potential AP cases closing in the next few weeks, he believes we will get close to 54850 visas issued, but probably not 54850.
Click to expand...
Thank you.
 
So back to Simon’s analysis. that sounds like a massive amount of visas per month, even more than what already seems to be so high (admittedly with as I said some under capacity, but others are just closed and will remain so - Moscow and Kyiv) . But anyway, whatever the actual number for scheduled interviews is, what is almost certainly true is that almost all remaining visa numbers for CP have already been pre-allocated, as most September interviews have probably been scheduled by now. From my memory it is has been rare that AOS cases have been turned down for lack of visa numbers, and when it has happened it has been very close to the end of the FY, but the implications of (my reading of jeanmobayed‘s interpretation of) Simon’s analysis is that if the large pre allocations are correct, we could see it happening sooner this year. Not trying to panic anyone - don’t get me wrong. But IF Simon’s numbers are accurate, and if it were me still waiting, I’d be doing congressperson etc.

Does anyone have insight as to how many AOS DV cases have been completed this year? I know annual numbers are available but I don’t know if more frequent data is released.
 
SusieQQQ said:
So back to Simon’s analysis. that sounds like a massive amount of visas per month, even more than what already seems to be so high (admittedly with as I said some under capacity, but others are just closed and will remain so - Moscow and Kyiv) . But anyway, whatever the actual number for scheduled interviews is, what is almost certainly true is that almost all remaining visa numbers for CP have already been pre-allocated, as most September interviews have probably been scheduled by now. From my memory it is has been rare that AOS cases have been turned down for lack of visa numbers, and when it has happened it has been very close to the end of the FY, but the implications of (my reading of jeanmobayed‘s interpretation of) Simon’s analysis is that if the large pre allocations are correct, we could see it happening sooner this year. Not trying to panic anyone - don’t get me wrong. But IF Simon’s numbers are accurate, and if it were me still waiting, I’d be doing congressperson etc.

Does anyone have insight as to how many AOS DV cases have been completed this year? I know annual numbers are available but I don’t know if more frequent data is released.
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Dear Susie, I am not familiar with DV cases at all, so I am sorry if my question sounds silly. You mentioned that visa numbers for CP have been pre-allocated already. So does it mean that if some of us who already had interviews and waiting for the results can receive rejection for our GC because there is no more visas left even if it is still not the end of the fiscal year? thank you in advance
 
Pizzapie said:
Dear Susie, I am not familiar with DV cases at all, so I am sorry if my question sounds silly. You mentioned that visa numbers for CP have been pre-allocated already. So does it mean that if some of us who already had interviews and waiting for the results can receive rejection for our GC because there is no more visas left even if it is still not the end of the fiscal year? thank you in advance
Click to expand...
In theory yes. I’d be surprised to see it happen so soon. But also, remember there are some “spare” numbers in Simon’s analysis, and there will be CP applicants who either don’t show up for their interviews or are denied, and those visa numbers get put back in the pool.
 
SusieQQQ said:
So back to Simon’s analysis. that sounds like a massive amount of visas per month, even more than what already seems to be so high (admittedly with as I said some under capacity, but others are just closed and will remain so - Moscow and Kyiv) . But anyway, whatever the actual number for scheduled interviews is, what is almost certainly true is that almost all remaining visa numbers for CP have already been pre-allocated, as most September interviews have probably been scheduled by now. From my memory it is has been rare that AOS cases have been turned down for lack of visa numbers, and when it has happened it has been very close to the end of the FY, but the implications of (my reading of jeanmobayed‘s interpretation of) Simon’s analysis is that if the large pre allocations are correct, we could see it happening sooner this year. Not trying to panic anyone - don’t get me wrong. But IF Simon’s numbers are accurate, and if it were me still waiting, I’d be doing congressperson etc.

Does anyone have insight as to how many AOS DV cases have been completed this year? I know annual numbers are available but I don’t know if more frequent data is released.
Click to expand...

According to this paragraph extracted from a goverment response in one of the multiple lawsuits going on, at least 708 as of 07/31.

1660083753319.png
 
jeanmobayed said:
According to this paragraph extracted from a goverment response in one of the multiple lawsuits going on, at least 708 as of 07/31.

View attachment 3664
Click to expand...
The AOS number - thanks, sounds even a little low compared to some prior years.
But what’s with KCC filing up the CP schedule to total 11k more visas than available ? Could that be a typo?
 
Pizzapie said:
Dear Susie, I am not familiar with DV cases at all, so I am sorry if my question sounds silly. You mentioned that visa numbers for CP have been pre-allocated already. So does it mean that if some of us who already had interviews and waiting for the results can receive rejection for our GC because there is no more visas left even if it is still not the end of the fiscal year? thank you in advance
Click to expand...

SusieQQQ said:
In theory yes. I’d be surprised to see it happen so soon. But also, remember there are some “spare” numbers in Simon’s analysis, and there will be CP applicants who either don’t show up for their interviews or are denied, and those visa numbers get put back in the pool.
Click to expand...
As clarification after some posts got moved threads, these two posts refer to AOS.
 
SusieQQQ said:
As clarification after some posts got moved threads, these two posts refer to AOS.
Click to expand...
Yes, they do. They however got moved because the initial of those two posts quoted a previous post discussing visa availability, so that initial post and the subsequent response got moved with the other posts in order to keep things in perspective for future readers who may be wondering as to where the post that got quoted was.
 
Sm1smom said:
Yes, they do. They however got moved because the initial of those two posts quoted a previous post discussing visa availability, so that initial post and the subsequent response got moved with the other posts in order to keep things in perspective for future readers who may be wondering as to where the post that got quoted was.
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i understand why you moved them - I just didn’t want anyone doing CP reading those to maybe get confused!
 
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