August 2019 Visa Bulletin

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#21
Back to the numbers, I do notice one difference in the latest VB text vs last year... last year and prior years spoke about 50k visas availale (with an asterisk about Nacara). This year just says up to 55k. Is this significant - are they aiming at the full 55k now?
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#22
Back to the numbers, I do notice one difference in the latest VB text vs last year... last year and prior years spoke about 50k visas availale (with an asterisk about Nacara). This year just says up to 55k. Is this significant - are they aiming at the full 55k now?
Anyway if it is 55k - there is definitely a change in how this is presented - hopefully they will actually aim at those extra 5k. It also means the per-country limit is 3850 rather than 3500, potentially saving a few people in the high-draw but not high refusal countries like Egypt. That said, before anyone panics, I can only recall 2 instances where this limit actually had an effect, Bangladesh way back when it was still in DV, and Iran a few years back.
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#23
Countries with more than 3850 selectees:
Egypt 5568
DRC 4743
Russia 5118
Iran 4101


That means on a 55K visa issuance number, there are already 4130 of the just under 84k selectees who just can't get visas so the real pool is under 80k. Even better news (for everyone other than those in those countries, anyway). This puts the visa number:real selectee ratio (yeah, i just invented this) at around 68%, which given what we know about how many people normally don't follow up on their selection - bodes very well imo for selectees.
Caveat: some of the people who normally don't follow up may be for the same reasons they got pre-disqualified this round. Even so - if i was selected this year i'd be feeling optimistic.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#24
Countries with more than 3850 selectees:
Egypt 5568
DRC 4743
Russia 5118
Iran 4101


That means on a 55K visa issuance number, there are already 4130 of the just under 84k selectees who just can't get visas so the real pool is under 80k. Even better news (for everyone other than those in those countries, anyway). This puts the visa number:real selectee ratio (yeah, i just invented this) at around 68%, which given what we know about how many people normally don't follow up on their selection - bodes very well imo for selectees.
Caveat: some of the people who normally don't follow up may be for the same reasons they got pre-disqualified this round. Even so - if i was selected this year i'd be feeling optimistic.
Selectee numbers being higher than the 7% number is somewhat normal, but the limit applies to visas issued, not selected. In most countries people dont respond or get refused. Then there is a growth rate for derivatives to factor in. But given from the numbers you mention, only Egypt has a realistic chance to reach the 7% cap.

I think the 55k is just a mistake. The instructions mentioned Nacara was still in effect.
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#25
Selectee numbers being higher than the 7% number is somewhat normal, but the limit applies to visas issued, not selected. In most countries people dont respond or get refused. Then there is a growth rate for derivatives to factor in. But given from the numbers you mention, only Egypt has a realistic chance to reach the 7% cap.

I think the 55k is just a mistake. The instructions mentioned Nacara was still in effect.
While I agree they usually have in excess - they also usually just have more selectees overall, so to my mind it’s a bit more significant this time. You don’t have to agree ;)

The instructions did, but the note in the VB just said 55k, no asterisk about nacara, and the fact that they would have actively changed that wording after years of the previous wording does make me still think there’s something in it - even if just a recognition that Nacara doesn’t really use any visas anymore in practice?
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#26
Spot the difference between last year and this - other than selectee numbers/dates, it is word for word .except for the two instances that last year mentioned 50k, this year mentions 55k and then just drops the number. Looks like a deliberate change to me.

The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg, Kentucky has registered and notified the winners of the DV-2020 diversity lottery. The diversity lottery was conducted under the terms of section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act and makes available up to 55,000 permanent resident visas annually to persons from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Approximately 83,884 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa. Since it is likely that some of the persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2020 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2020 (October 1, 2019 until September 30, 2020).

Vs

The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg, Kentucky has registered and notified the winners of the DV-2019 diversity lottery. The diversity lottery was conducted under the terms of section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act and makes available *50,000 permanent resident visas annually to persons from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Approximately 87,610 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa. Since it is likely that some of the first *50,000 persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2019 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2019 (October 1, 2018 until September 30, 2019).

/point made and will leave it at that!
 
#27
Spot the difference between last year and this - other than selectee numbers/dates, it is word for word .except for the two instances that last year mentioned 50k, this year mentions 55k and then just drops the number. Looks like a deliberate change to me.

The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg, Kentucky has registered and notified the winners of the DV-2020 diversity lottery. The diversity lottery was conducted under the terms of section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act and makes available up to 55,000 permanent resident visas annually to persons from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Approximately 83,884 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa. Since it is likely that some of the persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2020 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2020 (October 1, 2019 until September 30, 2020).

Vs

The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg, Kentucky has registered and notified the winners of the DV-2019 diversity lottery. The diversity lottery was conducted under the terms of section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act and makes available *50,000 permanent resident visas annually to persons from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Approximately 87,610 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa. Since it is likely that some of the first *50,000 persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2019 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2019 (October 1, 2018 until September 30, 2019).

/point made and will leave it at that!
I guess we'll soon find out. I know someone will call KCC to ask for clarification on that issue.
 
#28
In case additional numbers are drawn in September/October. Can this have a negative effect on high case numbers? Or do the new cases get added at the end?
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#30
I guess we'll soon find out. I know someone will call KCC to ask for clarification on that issue.
Lol

@SusieQQQ I saw the same thing I was skeptical about why they increase it from 50k to 55k I hope to understand it more.
It’s always been 55k visas for DV, but for many years they set aside 5k of the DV visas for another program (NACARA) that needed visas, effectively leaving 50k for DV. (If you go back to the Aug 2018 VB and follow that asterisk next to the 50, it explains it too.) However my understanding is that NACARA has hardly used anything in recent years and in fact there have been a number of years since I’ve been around where DV issuance has exceeded 50k.
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#31
@SusieQQQ I saw the same thing I was skeptical about why they increase it from 50k to 55k I hope to understand it more.

9 FAM 502.6-2 (U) DIVERSITY IMMIGRANTS OVERVIEW

(CT:VISA-175; 09-13-2016)

a. (U) Section 131 of the Immigration Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-649) amended INA 203 to provide for a new class of immigrants known as “diversity immigrants” (DV immigrants). The amendment established an annual numerical limitation of 55,000 DV immigrants effective for fiscal year 1995 and thereafter. Aliens who are natives of countries determined by the Attorney General (now Secretary of Homeland Security) through application of a mathematical formula specified in INA 203(c)(1)(A) to be “low admission” countries may qualify for immigration under this limitation. INA 203(c)(1) requires a separate entry for each participating alien for each fiscal year.

......

c. (U) In November 1997, Congress passed Public Law 105-100, the Nicaraguan Adjustment and Central American Relief Act (NACARA). With NACARA, Congress stipulated that beginning with the 1999 Diversity Immigrant Visa Program, and as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas can be made available for use under the NACARA program.

https://fam.state.gov/fam/09FAM/09FAM050206.html
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#33
Spot the difference between last year and this - other than selectee numbers/dates, it is word for word .except for the two instances that last year mentioned 50k, this year mentions 55k and then just drops the number. Looks like a deliberate change to me.

The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg, Kentucky has registered and notified the winners of the DV-2020 diversity lottery. The diversity lottery was conducted under the terms of section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act and makes available up to 55,000 permanent resident visas annually to persons from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Approximately 83,884 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa. Since it is likely that some of the persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2020 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2020 (October 1, 2019 until September 30, 2020).

Vs

The Kentucky Consular Center in Williamsburg, Kentucky has registered and notified the winners of the DV-2019 diversity lottery. The diversity lottery was conducted under the terms of section 203(c) of the Immigration and Nationality Act and makes available *50,000 permanent resident visas annually to persons from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Approximately 87,610 applicants have been registered and notified and may now make an application for an immigrant visa. Since it is likely that some of the first *50,000 persons registered will not pursue their cases to visa issuance, this larger figure should insure that all DV-2019 numbers will be used during fiscal year 2019 (October 1, 2018 until September 30, 2019).

/point made and will leave it at that!
Yeah. It's possible Nacara has been ended, but then you would expect an announcement somewhere. I guess we will know when the DV2021 instructions are published.
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#37
Yeah. It's possible Nacara has been ended, but then you would expect an announcement somewhere. I guess we will know when the DV2021 instructions are published.
I don't think they're ending Nacara per se but I think it's just not using more than a few hundred visas a year now. I can't remember where I saw the stats last and have just had a fruitless search, but i recall the bulge was in the 2000s and by the time I was in DV (2013) it had already dropped a lot.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#38
I don't think they're ending Nacara per se but I think it's just not using more than a few hundred visas a year now. I can't remember where I saw the stats last and have just had a fruitless search, but i recall the bulge was in the 2000s and by the time I was in DV (2013) it had already dropped a lot.
Yes I agree - I did the stats some years ago - and the nature of the program itself means the number of people eligible reduces over time.
 
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