At INS\'s current rate.....analysis of when AOS\'s should happen

D

djh

Member
Some basic assumptions are that:

 1) INS has cleaned up all their backlog in other visas and are now concentrating on I485\'s to reduce this backlog and the current rate of approvals will continue.

 2) That the people here are an indicative sample of the total I485 population in CSC and the same trend in applications by month is similar to what is posted on PCee\'s website.

 3) The current trend of 22 approvals per week will continue .....as per my previous post gettingclosernow "Approvals by week since mid November" 2/22/02 3:51pm

 4) From PCee\'s spreadsheets, I have assumed that some of the people are not active in keeping their records up to date and have not visited this site for a long time, therefore based on their lack of posting information for FP details etc, I am discounting Apr, May and Junes \'outstanding\' waiters by the following numbers. April I believe 12 are currently waiting, not 28 (16 inactive). May has 23 active, not 40 (17 inactive). June has 47 active, not 55 (8 inactive).

 5) I have assumed all the rest of the months are active (although obviously this is not the case).

With those assumptions the following list represents the numbers by month of active I485 waiters:

Apr 12
May 23
Jun 47
Jul 90
Aug 62
Sep 46
Oct 53
Nov 18
Dec 30

For a Grand Total of 381 outstanding applications

Using the average of 22 approvals per week, a rough guide to when approvals will be complete for each month are as follows. (I know this is a simplistic linear calculation and there are obvious complexities like RFE\'s and interviews and the approvals are more like a bell curve over several months, but for simplicity\'s sake for estimating I\'ve used this calculation)

Based on 381 outstanding applications (through to the end of December). Based on 22 per week, all approvals will be complete in 17 1/3 weeks.

Apr in 1 week
May in 1.6 weeks
Jun in 3.7 weeks
Jul in 7.8 weeks
Aug in 10.6 weeks
Sep in 12.7 weeks
Oct in 15.1 weeks
Nov in 16 weeks
Dec in 17.3 weeks

Obviously all the above is based on a lot of assumption....the biggest being that INS will continue at it\'s current pace (and we all know how inconsistent they are), however take it for what it\'s worth....just a bit of fun and a best guess with a little bit of analysis behind it!
 
u r assuming that

ins will move sequentially
first it will complete april then may then june

however this is not the case as u can see in the recent approvals thread

I have attached a summary in that thread

Yes it is good to forecast the future but it is also good to look at the recent past.
 
I know...

....that\'s why I said "linear calculation for simplicity\'s sake" as we all know one month isn\'t complete before the next one....just as a rough guideline and for ease of calculation
 
yes i agree that most of december cases will be done by July 1st week

this is in line with ur theory
 
INS target dates

I recently read @ murthy chat that INS was the first center that is trying to impliment the 6 month timeframe for 485 adjudication.
Also INS is undergoing some major overhaul with new budgets etc and hopefully the erratic approvals are a good sign ..in line with the INS commitment to make it a 6 month process.

But if your assumtions are correct then....I filed recently and should get approval by july.....wow....that will be a boon in todays economy
 
yes CSC ...

Let me try and find the link at murthy chat ..if i am correct it was 3 weeks ago.
I actually had the oppertunity to file in VSC or CSC i was adviced by 4 attorneys to go with CSC,due to their guess that CSC would speed up things
 
No Too fast

gettingclosernow,
 your theory about INS processing time will only work if they hire you or ME to manage the INS, the INS manages 485 cases like a goverment branches in a third-world conutry, lack of management every where and highly un-predictable.

I filed in April for my AOS and I have seen approvals for July RD cases while I am waiting, I can\'t reach the INS and there is no way to find out what\'s going on. All we can do is just sit, wait and may be pray.

Take it easy,

RD waiter with no hope................
 
CSC,VSC,TSC

All Service centers have a few jul/aug cases approved . I think all
these service centers have a similar way of processing applications
that we are not able to exactly tell .
 
Good analysis gettingclosernow !!!

I appreciate your statistics.
It is the trend, pattern, analysis, projections, that a lot of people are interested into on this forum.
While PCee and rsrgc maintain immaculate statistics, we always welcome analysis like yours for scientific projections.

Well Done, Good Job !!!
 
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