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Asian with above 5250 CN pls report here.

raevsky said:
What I think is happening is those are the ones who submitted forms to KCC but do not want to schedule interview yet. A number of people are preparing for changes in the family, including marriages or divorces
Probably, for Nepal a very small number of applicants are delaying their interviews including reasons mentioned.
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Well, too many Ready status. Is about 40:60 for Rest of Asia and 50:50 for Iran. E.g. Iran has 100 visa issued and also has 100 Ready status in the very first month. Don't tell me we have 389 selectees need to make changes to their application out of 2077 for below 1800. Those # below 1800 should already have their interviews. We have Jan data, Oct should have clear and yet we have 17% ready status. Raevsky, I have the same thinking as you but after looking at the data, I don't really think that is the case.
 
I calculate # of selectees into 3 categories, Iran, Nepal and Rest of Asia as follows:

CN - 500
Selectee - 555
Iran - 262
Nepal - 189
Rest - 104

CN - 500 - 1000
Selectee - 605
Iran - 280
Nepal - 198
Rest - 127

CN - 1000 - 1500
Selectee - 593
Iran - 245
Nepal - 202
Rest - 146

CN - 1500 - 2000
Selectee - 569
Iran - 283
Nepal - 198
Rest - 88

CN - 2000 - 2500
Selectee - 551
Iran - 245
Nepal - 179
Rest - 127

CN - 2500 - 3000
Selectee - 605
Iran - 259
Nepal - 214
Rest - 132

CN - 3000 - 3500
Selectee - 509
Iran - 224
Nepal - 179
Rest - 106

CN - 3500 - 4000
Selectee - 457
Iran - 162
Nepal - 190
Rest - 105

CN - 4000 - 4325
Selectee - 274
Iran - 77
Nepal - 134
Rest - 63

If you look at the above data, we get some important data point for better Asia prediction.

1. Iran is seems like slowing down after 4k CN.
2. Nepal not much change.
3. Rest of Asia not much change.

If the same data pattern proceed, Nepal will hit it limit first then follow by Iran. So, Rest of Asia have to wait until Nepal hit it limit before seeing any big jump with assumption no special cut off needed. Iran continue until Sept before the limit get hit but Nepal might be as soon as July. Rest of Asia can only expect Aug and Sept for a big jump if Nepal hit it limit in July. Initially, we thought Iran is dense below 9k and Nepal is dense above 9k but after looking at the data it might not be the case based on the data pattern. So, it might push the CN progress slower. I really hope Iran really dense below 9k, so it will push the progress faster but the data show the opposite up to this point.

Waiting for March CEAC data to see whether the same pattern still proceed. Let keep hoping for the best.
 
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Im not seeing this is fair for AS.How it comes that most Iran and Nepales CN are coming almost as a row. If the selection was randomly,then these CN will be spread till the last CNs. AS selectee are suffering when they see that most visa issuance were almost for two countries. Really Im losing the hope as I see new VB. Dreams are crushed on rocks:(.
 
kayend said:
I calculate # of selectees into 3 categories, Iran, Nepal and Rest of Asia as follows:

CN - 500
Selectee - 555
Iran - 262
Nepal - 189
Rest - 104

CN - 500 - 1000
Selectee - 605
Iran - 280
Nepal - 198
Rest - 127

CN - 1000 - 1500
Selectee - 593
Iran - 245
Nepal - 202
Rest - 146

CN - 1500 - 2000
Selectee - 569
Iran - 283
Nepal - 198
Rest - 88

CN - 2000 - 2500
Selectee - 551
Iran - 245
Nepal - 179
Rest - 127

CN - 2500 - 3000
Selectee - 605
Iran - 259
Nepal - 214
Rest - 132

CN - 3000 - 3500
Selectee - 509
Iran - 224
Nepal - 179
Rest - 106

CN - 3500 - 4000
Selectee - 457
Iran - 162
Nepal - 190
Rest - 105

CN - 4000 - 4325
Selectee - 274
Iran - 77
Nepal - 134
Rest - 63

If you look at the above data, we get some important data point for better Asia prediction.

1. Iran is seems like slowing down after 4k CN.
2. Nepal not much change.
3. Rest of Asia not much change.

If the same data pattern proceed, Nepal will hit it limit first then follow by Iran. So, Rest of Asia have to wait until Nepal hit it limit before seeing any big jump with assumption no special cut off needed. Iran continue until Sept before the limit get hit but Nepal might be as soon as July. Rest of Asia can only expect Aug and Sept for a big jump if Nepal hit it limit in July. Initially, we thought Iran is dense below 9k and Nepal is dense above 9k but after looking at the data it might not be the case based on the data pattern. So, it might push the CN progress slower. I really hope Iran really dense below 9k, so it will push the progress faster but the data show the opposite up to this point.

Waiting for March CEAC data to see whether the same pattern still proceed. Let keep hoping for the best.
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Just one thing kayend I know you are extrapolating that as Cns out the 3 embassie belongs all to iran but actually not all of them ! Some little portion cases might belong to the rest of AS !?
 
skystar said:
Im not seeing this is fair for AS.How it comes that most Iran and Nepales CN are coming almost as a row. If the selection was randomly,then these CN will be spread till the last CNs. AS selectee are suffering when they see that most visa issuance were almost for two countries. Really Im losing the hope as I see new VB. Dreams are crushed on rocks:(.
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As another Asian DV-2014 selectee, I have the same question regarding if the drawing is truly "random?" How come Iran and Nepal have 6,027 and 6,082 selectees respectively, while the rest 29 Asian countries only have 11,161 selectees in total. Unless participating DV lottery is "national activity" in Iran and Nepal.

No offense to people from Iran or Nepal, but I think many Asian selectees from other countries are as frustrated as I am right now.
 
skystar said:
Im not seeing this is fair for AS.How it comes that most Iran and Nepales CN are coming almost as a row. If the selection was randomly,then these CN will be spread till the last CNs. AS selectee are suffering when they see that most visa issuance were almost for two countries. Really Im losing the hope as I see new VB. Dreams are crushed on rocks:(.
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Actually you have no reason to be upset if you are from an AS region country other than Iran and Nepal

If you read post number 5 in the thread below, you wil understand how Iran and Nepal got the concentration of selectees with low numbers purely because they had some many selectees. Then their countries were limited during the original draw which means that entrants from those two countries had less of a chance than you did (but their countries had MANY entrants).

http://forums.immigration.com/showt...ocratic-Republic-for-the-next-VBs-!!-not-sure
 
b6501119 said:
As another Asian DV-2014 selectee, I have the same question regarding if the drawing is truly "random?" How come Iran and Nepal have 6,027 and 6,082 selectees respectively, while the rest 29 Asian countries only have 11,161 selectees in total. Unless participating DV lottery is "national activity" in Iran and Nepal.

No offense to people from Iran or Nepal, but I think many Asian selectees from other countries are as frustrated as I am right now.
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Again - you are VERY wrong in your assumption and the unfairness is against the entrants from Iran and Nepal. As above, read my post in the other thread that explains the concept.
 
kyaend believe me there will be nothing like u say asia will see just around 13k cutoff for September....... and this year DV will close...turning out lot of disappointment and sad faces..
 
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mate what is the profit for me to lie???????? iam not paid here... what the general conversation it was i told as she said....
aset said:
Didn't you talk to KCC? Weren't you saying there will be a big jump to 10k? lol
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Rayme said:
kyaend believe me there will be nothing like u say asia will see just around 13k cutoff for September....... and this year DV will close...turning out lot of disappointment and sad faces..
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Rayme, I just use the CEAC data to do some prediction and I am trying my best to share what I can find. You have your own thinking and you are saying the # almost the same as DV13 but to me is not. Every year is different to me and that's why I think using CEAC data to make prediction is the best way to know our chances.
 
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my dear kayend see this What was i telling from u before?????????? nepalese case density is low in between 5k to 9k... did u see this.... now cases of Nepal are distributed evenly upto 14k and scarcely in above
Ayoub said:
From AS4325-5150 about 47 percent are from Iran.(385)
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