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Asian with above 5250 CN pls report here.

Kayend

Kayend

Active Member
Asian with above 5350 CN pls report here.

To all Asian above 5350 CN,

Please report your CN here so we would know where is all our Asian CN located in CN numbers.

Nepal

2014AS00006xxx - bishnu7
2014AS00007xxx - nits1357
2014AS00008xxx - oskarson
2014AS000098xx - rayme
2014AS00010xxx - mom08
2014AS00011xxx - dolopar
2014AS00012xxx - biratnagar
2014AS00012xxx - ModNAmE
2014AS00012xxx - pollyannaguy
2014AS00012xxx - supreme dhakal
2014AS000126xx - shaambhab
2014AS000130xx - smita

Iran

2014AS00006xxx - corail
2014AS00008xxx - qiq

Rest of Asia

2014AS00010xxx - smtsampath
2014AS000106xx - nyimakao
2014AS00010xxx - aset
2014AS00011xxx - hopenewsun
2014AS00013xxx - kayend
2014AS00014xxx - mar lar
2014AS000153xx - Ash1988
2014AS00016xxx - hon1994
2014AS00016xxx - qolkaram
2014AS000162xx - sajeevstalin
2014AS000163xx - smtg34
2014AS00018xxx - nerandima
2014AS00019xxx - monashed
2014AS00021xxx - guala
2014AS00021xxx - skystar
2014AS00022xxx - dvthi
2014AS00022xxx - debbie lee
2014AS00023xxx - pinkpanther123

The following is the target for AS progress for the coming months.

Jun - 8000
July - 10500 (Nepal most likely hit their country limit in July)
Aug - 14000
Sept - >18000

Removing the assumption of Iran dominated CN below 9k and Nepal dominated CN from 10k to 13k.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
sajeevstalin said:
162XX(Sri Lanka)
Do we anticipate any special cutoff for Asian Winners in the next visa bulletin?
Click to expand...

We don't know when it will push the button. There will be 2 scenarios will happen in the coming months.

1. Increase visa slot.
2. Put Nepal into special cut off.

Either way, it will speed up the CN. Why they have to do that? Because they need to make sure Asia hit it regional quota. Nepal will takes 3500 visas for sure, Iran might not get 3500 because of high AP cases and Rest of Asia will fill up the rest. So, if increasing visa slot might help for Nepal to hit their limit sooner then no special cut off needed, if not it will need a special cut off.
 
kayend said:
We don't know when it will push the button. There will be 2 scenarios will happen in the coming months.

1. Increase visa slot.
2. Put Nepal into special cut off.

Either way, it will speed up the CN. Why they have to do that? Because they need to make sure Asia hit it regional quota. Nepal will takes 3500 visas for sure, Iran might not get 3500 because of high AP cases and Rest of Asia will fill up the rest. So, if increasing visa slot might help for Nepal to hit their limit sooner then no special cut off needed, if not it will need a special cut off.
Click to expand...

well kayend might be right to some extent but in the previous posts Rayme has been analysed that the Iranian are concentrated below 9k and the nepalese cases are spread upto 23k for sure....I am in a bit confusion that there will hit the separate cutoff limit first to nepal or Iran...I think Nepal will be the 2nd country to strike from cutoff limit because most Iranian claimed the cases below 9k and also the CEAC data showed that the cases of nepal are densed below 5k and some have been issued and some are gonna issue soon, the highest success rate and response rate may be panic for the high cases from nepal. if they put nepal a separate cutoff, certainly may face the problem to balance regional quotas in my view.... The survey showed that the cases of Nepal are rare upto 11k then again agglomerated in 12k and 13k and again spread upto 23k,If Nepal keep a separate limit in upcoming month then the case # 12*** will be at risk and on the other hand the Asian quota wont full as per requirement!!!
 
supreme dhakal said:
well kayend might be right to some extent but in the previous posts Rayme has been analysed that the Iranian are concentrated below 9k and the nepalese cases are spread upto 23k for sure....I am in a bit confusion that there will hit the separate cutoff limit first to nepal or Iran...I think Nepal will be the 2nd country to strike from cutoff limit because most Iranian claimed the cases below 9k and also the CEAC data showed that the cases of nepal are densed below 5k and some have been issued and some are gonna issue soon, the highest success rate and response rate may be panic for the high cases from nepal. if they put nepal a separate cutoff, certainly may face the problem to balance regional quotas in my view.... The survey showed that the cases of Nepal are rare upto 11k then again agglomerated in 12k and 13k and again spread upto 23k,If Nepal keep a separate limit in upcoming month then the case # 12*** will be at risk and on the other hand the Asian quota wont full as per requirement!!!
Click to expand...

Well, we don't know whether 12k to 13k Nepalis CN rank below or above the 3500 selectees from Nepal. If Iran really dominate most of the CN below 9k then 13k from Nepal is consider a safe range. Whether or not there is special cut off for Nepal, Nepal will sure take all 3500 visas. It just matter of time. So, having special cut off will not take away any Nepalis chances. I personally hope Nepal hit their limit only at 15k or higher because that would mean Rest of Asia might run up to 20k or so.
 
kayend said:
To all Asian above 5350 CN,

Please report your CN here so we would know where is all our Asian CN located in CN numbers.

Nepal

2014AS00006xxx - bishnu7
2014AS00008xxx - oskarson
2014AS00010xxx - mom08
2014AS00011xxx - dolopar
2014AS00012xxx - biratnagar
2014AS00012xxx - ModNAmE
2014AS00012xxx - pollyannaguy
2014AS00012xxx - supreme dhakal
2014AS000126xx - shaambhab

Iran

...

Rest of Asia

2014AS00010xxx - smtsampath
2014AS000106xx - nyimakao
2014AS00011xxx - hopenewsun
2014AS00013xxx - kayend
2014AS00016xxx - hon1994
2014AS000162xx - sajeevstalin
2014AS000163xx - smtg34
Click to expand...




Nepalese more case between 12k - 13k
 
So far based on the CN reported, Iran should be at below 9k range, 10k to 13k Nepal and 14k above is Rest of Asia. If this sampling really represent the actual distribution of selectees then AS might progress as follows:

May - Asia 9000, Iran 6000
Jun - Asia 12000, Iran 7000
July - Asia 14000, Iran 8000
Aug - Asia 17000, Iran 9000, Nepal - unavailable
Sept - Asia 22000 or current (depend on the take up rate of Rest of Asia)

This is just my personal opinion and I also hope this is what is going to happen for Asia.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
kayend said:
So far based on the CN reported, Iran should be at below 9k range, 10k to 13k Nepal and 14k above is Rest of Asia. If this sampling really represent the actual distribution of selectees then AS might progress as follows:

May - Asia 9000, Iran 6000
Jun - Asia 12000, Iran 7000
July - Asia 14000, Iran 8000
Aug - Asia 17000, Iran 9000, Nepal - unavailable
Sept - Asia 22000 or current (depend on the take up rate of Rest of Asia)

This is just my personal opinion and I also hope this is what is going to happen for Asia.
Click to expand...
Your analysis is absolutely right and I wanna add some comments over it. can we expect 9k for may month?? I think it is slight higher what we did expect!!! and other values may be true at the end of fiscal year. someone claimed that there were processed 4800(out of 6082) from Nepal, is it true or not??? If this value is true country limit will hit somewhere in the range of 13k. then rest of the cases will jump up above 5k in my view!!! Sorry guys I might be wrong.
 
it seemed that the foundation of 2nd half datum level is satisfactory of this queer dv 014 especially for AS region. the upcoming tri-months must jump the cutoff upto 12k with the increment of more than 2k so that the other regions from AS will gotta chance in a couple of month whatever the cases. If Iran and nepal fill their quotas then the sedimented case numbers from Nepal and Iran and other countries will have a chance and can expect an massive # greater than 5k!!!
This is just my personal predictions if the case # is distributed what I assumed:
May - Asia 7800, Iran 6200
Jun - Asia 10200, Iran 7300
July - Asia 12800, Iran 8400
Aug - Asia 18000, Iran 9500, Nepal - 13600
Sept - Asia 23000, Iran 12000, nepal 14500
 
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