Kayend
Active Member
I have put up my prediction or target in the first post.
Asian with above 5250 CN pls report here.
- Thread starter Kayend
- Start date
I have put up my prediction or target in the first post.
thureinphyowai
Registered Users (C)
join my facebook
please join my dv myanmar group link: https://www.facebook.com/groups/236304816527617/2014AS00021***
Burma
Kayend
Active Member
Please report your CN so that we can make better prediction.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
First for all thank you kayend great job as always!
Now checking your predictions I find them a bit to optemistic! I'm tending to supreme's ones, for all next VB you are expecting about 4k jump which I doubt.
Just my opinion too
Kayend
Active Member
As I put in the side note, it is possible if Iran dominated CN below 9k and put into special cut off. Based on CEAC data, if Rest of Asia alone is can go up to 5k CN, with one special cut off can go up to 3k, so if Iran were to put into special cut off and since Iranian dominated CN below 9k, it can goes up to 4-5k. When Nepal start to have more CN it will slow down again. Anyway, this is just a prediction that I hope it will happen. No harm to be hopeful at this point in time.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
no in any world will go next bulletin more than 7000 and not in any case will nepal get special cutoff... again Iam saying that if it was Nepal to go in special limit it would have been lot more earlier guys rather to keep Nepal in specail cutoff KCC chosed to move VB of asia by just 150 less than even of SA so it wont be guys it wont be i donot see going current this year and asia cutoff for september will be like n range of 15to 17k
dvbibasd
Member
This is just our prediction whether it will be true or not. We are basically reflected from the previous years CEAC data where we did report enough holes and high jump.
dvbibasd
Member
This is just our prediction whether it will be true or not. We are basically reflected from the previous years CEAC data where we did report enough holes and high jump.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
ya so true there is no any big increase in holes than last year and even the cases are dense than last year truely speaking this time 12k cases from asia can give easily 10500 visa so there is no meaning of high jump or anything to be done by KCC so they are not doing anything let me explain what i think it is....guys be sure Nepali cases are distributed till 15k... if it KCC was in any mind of keeping Nepal in special cutoff then it would have done earlier... if u see ceac data Nepal was clearly bottle neck for asia still KCC chosed other way increasing just 150 and 250 for two successive months.. why Nepal will not be in special cutoff because Nepal cases are now in range of 280(approx) per thousand(you may be thinking how)...I donot like being joked by anyone but its now confirmed that 4800 people are now processing for visa from Nepal out of which 1705 have been finished till march that means now 3100-3200 left which is distributed till 15000 in Nepal's case and after that it is dispersed lighly upto 27K..so I donot think KCC for any reason will put special cutoff but ya its sure that after range of 13k there will be quota full for Nepali cases and may also for iran too within 10k after that like in previous some year cutoff may rocket increase of 10k also who knows..
Last edited by a moderator:
Kayend
Active Member
Let me explain my prediction. If Iran CN only goes up to 9k and not putting them to special cut off then KCC cannot meet Asia quota, so KCC has to do it. Of course this only happen when Iran really dominated CN below 9k. This is just an assumption with a small set of sampling data. So, it can turn out to be wrong.
If you look at the rate on CEAC data, it has about 700-800 visa slot allocated in the first 6 months and that prove it is not sufficient to generate enough visa, I think from 625 to 1025 CN increased was due to visa slot increased because Nepal and Iran still take 40% each and assume the same pattern as the first 6 months.
So, next month is critical guys, if it increase more than 1.5k (without any special cut off), that mean KCC or DOS are increasing the visa slots to fulfill the Asia quota. If still stay in 1k or less, then high CN might be in risk. But based on the visa issued statistic, it should have a least 1.5k CN increase (without special cut-off).
If you look at the rate on CEAC data, it has about 700-800 visa slot allocated in the first 6 months and that prove it is not sufficient to generate enough visa, I think from 625 to 1025 CN increased was due to visa slot increased because Nepal and Iran still take 40% each and assume the same pattern as the first 6 months.
So, next month is critical guys, if it increase more than 1.5k (without any special cut off), that mean KCC or DOS are increasing the visa slots to fulfill the Asia quota. If still stay in 1k or less, then high CN might be in risk. But based on the visa issued statistic, it should have a least 1.5k CN increase (without special cut-off).
dvbibasd
Member
lols... we are discussed only about Iranian and Nepalese cases. is this dv and forum limited for dual countries?..We have wasted our time for prediction and chances of our cases...why the selectee from countries (except iran and nepal) are gonna silent?..The data showed 10k selectee from other countries...I have seen the posts from Rayme and kayend that makes viewers really monotonous although his posts are obviously fruitful one....I expect and wanna share the ideas from new guys and other selectee also so that it will be effective and will make us more interesting(we have to wait and see another 5 months) as similar to other regions !!!
This is only my suggestion and I might be wrong!!!
This is only my suggestion and I might be wrong!!!
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
guys who said Asia will not fill quota of 10k with recent progress..... data till now suggests that if also asia Vb reaches around 10k than also it will fill the quota of 10K...Didnt you see that 4325 leaded to 4750 application for visa from Asia???? please see that... situation are more and more frightening for asia dude...our all calculations and assumption are being wrong each months... I suspect that KCC have ever kept special cutoff for any country starting so late... and with the recent progress too Nepal had 1705 visa processing till 6 month with same intensity of cases too it will not reach even 3500 in next 6 month.. so please the research and discussion we are doing is nothing...
Nobody knows exactly what is really going to happen in coming five bulletins.best thing is to be prepared for the best thats all.
Kayend
Active Member
OK, based on CEAC data the selectees being interview is almost the same as CN #. e.g. 10,000 CN has 10k selectees being interview. Let just say we have 10k selectees up to 10K CN #. You are saying by 10K CN it will fulfill the 10K Asia quota? It is definitely not possible. Based on the distribution, Iran and Nepal takes 80% and Rest of Asia takes 20%. Remember, Iran and Nepal combined only can takes 7k visa. So let assume all interviews success for all CN below 10k, 8k from Nepal and Iran will produce 7k visa and both countries hit the limit and it stop, so left 2k selectees from Rest of Asia, and now also assume all success, that will produce another 2k visas. Left 1k visas for Rest of Asia and 200 selectees from Rest of Asia in every thousands, and that will push the CN to 15k.
Remember, what I have just said is that all successful and all AP clear in time. Even with this assumption, 10k CN is not enough to fulfill the region quota. Nepal is the first to hit the limit and that is for sure. I think Nepal limit will hit by July or so. Regarding special cut off, KCC don't measure which month it should have special cut off, it will put country into special cut off if it become bottleneck to the region progress and that can be anytime in the year. DV2014 for Asia is very different from all the past years, first we do not have Bangladesh now so less fraud which also mean less hope. Second, we have Nepal that has 6k selectees with success rate of 90%, thirdly we have Iran (6k selectees) with 80% AP cases and finally the distribution of the CN is 40/40/20. So, we cannot really use pass years' results to gauge what is going to happen in DV14.
Last edited by a moderator:
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
you are from Iran????????????
dvbibasd
Member
From the previous posts it has been writeen that the cases of Iranian are agglomerated below 9k but you have the case number of 10k, how many Iranian selectee having case # greater than 10k as you know??