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Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept

This is what I believe will happen. Nepal already have roughly 3.8k ( includes AOS + interviews outside of KDU). Based on the statistic so far, Nepal has success rate of 92%, so with 3.8k it is good enough to issue the target of 3.5k. If this is how DOS see it, it might put the limit at 9500 for Nepal even for Sept. Then when come to interview time, if the success rate get even higher in remaining 3 months, meaning it need more than 3.5k visas, they will still issue it. So it might be 3.6k. That's is what happen to Iran last year. Last year all selectees have their interviews because the return rate is much lower compare to this year and the # of selectees are lesser than 20k-25k. So all interviews go thru and when come to issue the visa, Iran already hit the country limit by 3.5k but they still continue issue the visa with NACARA quota until it hit the country limit with NACARA quota which is 3.74k.

So, Nepal still possible to have 200 or so more selectees and nothing more than that. With the current density, it will stop in the range of 10k to 10.5k max. The only hope for Nepal with more than 10.5k CN is the density become lesser from 9500. Even by half lesser in density it cannot reach more than 11.5k CN.

This is how I see it and it could be totally crap but the reason I want to put up this possible crap is to give a better view of why Iran had 3.7k in dv13 and what is the impact to Nepal this year.
 
Total selectees for Nepal-6082
Up to July(0-8900)=3464
For August up to now(8900-9500)=190
AOS~100
So total for Nepal=3754
Remaining selectees= 6082-3754=2328
IMO.....
most of the Nepalese cases are concentrated below CN 15000.
9.5k to 15.0k~170 selectees/500CN
Above 15.0k ~500 selectees
If we take 92% as the success rate...
My prediction for Nepal
With out NACARA-9500
With NACARA-10300
 
Last edited:
Kayend said:
This is what I believe will happen. Nepal already have roughly 3.8k ( includes AOS + interviews outside of KDU). Based on the statistic so far, Nepal has success rate of 92%, so with 3.8k it is good enough to issue the target of 3.5k. If this is how DOS see it, it might put the limit at 9500 for Nepal even for Sept. Then when come to interview time, if the success rate get even higher in remaining 3 months, meaning it need more than 3.5k visas, they will still issue it. So it might be 3.6k. That's is what happen to Iran last year. Last year all selectees have their interviews because the return rate is much lower compare to this year and the # of selectees are lesser than 20k-25k. So all interviews go thru and when come to issue the visa, Iran already hit the country limit by 3.5k but they still continue issue the visa with NACARA quota until it hit the country limit with NACARA quota which is 3.74k.

So, Nepal still possible to have 200 or so more selectees and nothing more than that. With the current density, it will stop in the range of 10k to 10.5k max. The only hope for Nepal with more than 10.5k CN is the density become lesser from 9500. Even by half lesser in density it cannot reach more than 11.5k CN.

This is how I see it and it could be totally crap but the reason I want to put up this possible crap is to give a better view of why Iran had 3.7k in dv13 and what is the impact to Nepal this year.
Click to expand...
If they use nACARA visas anyway, i dont think they will allocated it for nepal. Last year they gave iran 3700 because asia was not meet regional quota
 
Kayend said:
This is what I believe will happen. Nepal already have roughly 3.8k ( includes AOS + interviews outside of KDU). Based on the statistic so far, Nepal has success rate of 92%, so with 3.8k it is good enough to issue the target of 3.5k. If this is how DOS see it, it might put the limit at 9500 for Nepal even for Sept. Then when come to interview time, if the success rate get even higher in remaining 3 months, meaning it need more than 3.5k visas, they will still issue it. So it might be 3.6k. That's is what happen to Iran last year. Last year all selectees have their interviews because the return rate is much lower compare to this year and the # of selectees are lesser than 20k-25k. So all interviews go thru and when come to issue the visa, Iran already hit the country limit by 3.5k but they still continue issue the visa with NACARA quota until it hit the country limit with NACARA quota which is 3.74k.

So, Nepal still possible to have 200 or so more selectees and nothing more than that. With the current density, it will stop in the range of 10k to 10.5k max. The only hope for Nepal with more than 10.5k CN is the density become lesser from 9500. Even by half lesser in density it cannot reach more than 11.5k CN.

This is how I see it and it could be totally crap but the reason I want to put up this possible crap is to give a better view of why Iran had 3.7k in dv13 and what is the impact to Nepal this year.
Click to expand...
What do you think about High CN in rest of Asia ? How will be the VB for Asia in Sep ????
 
Kayend said:
This is what I believe will happen. Nepal already have roughly 3.8k ( includes AOS + interviews outside of KDU). Based on the statistic so far, Nepal has success rate of 92%, so with 3.8k it is good enough to issue the target of 3.5k. If this is how DOS see it, it might put the limit at 9500 for Nepal even for Sept. Then when come to interview time, if the success rate get even higher in remaining 3 months, meaning it need more than 3.5k visas, they will still issue it. So it might be 3.6k. That's is what happen to Iran last year. Last year all selectees have their interviews because the return rate is much lower compare to this year and the # of selectees are lesser than 20k-25k. So all interviews go thru and when come to issue the visa, Iran already hit the country limit by 3.5k but they still continue issue the visa with NACARA quota until it hit the country limit with NACARA quota which is 3.74k.

So, Nepal still possible to have 200 or so more selectees and nothing more than that. With the current density, it will stop in the range of 10k to 10.5k max. The only hope for Nepal with more than 10.5k CN is the density become lesser from 9500. Even by half lesser in density it cannot reach more than 11.5k CN.

This is how I see it and it could be totally crap but the reason I want to put up this possible crap is to give a better view of why Iran had 3.7k in dv13 and what is the impact to Nepal this year.
Click to expand...
 
Kayend said:
This is what I believe will happen. Nepal already have roughly 3.8k ( includes AOS + interviews outside of KDU). Based on the statistic so far, Nepal has success rate of 92%, so with 3.8k it is good enough to issue the target of 3.5k. If this is how DOS see it, it might put the limit at 9500 for Nepal even for Sept. Then when come to interview time, if the success rate get even higher in remaining 3 months, meaning it need more than 3.5k visas, they will still issue it. So it might be 3.6k. That's is what happen to Iran last year. Last year all selectees have their interviews because the return rate is much lower compare to this year and the # of selectees are lesser than 20k-25k. So all interviews go thru and when come to issue the visa, Iran already hit the country limit by 3.5k but they still continue issue the visa with NACARA quota until it hit the country limit with NACARA quota which is 3.74k.

So, Nepal still possible to have 200 or so more selectees and nothing more than that. With the current density, it will stop in the range of 10k to 10.5k max. The only hope for Nepal with more than 10.5k CN is the density become lesser from 9500. Even by half lesser in density it cannot reach more than 11.5k CN.

This is how I see it and it could be totally crap but the reason I want to put up this possible crap is to give a better view of why Iran had 3.7k in dv13 and what is the impact to Nepal this year.
Click to expand...
 
Hi guys, I have a very high CN.... so I was wondering if the country of chargeability have any role to play?
 
WingZero said:
If they use nACARA visas anyway, i dont think they will allocated it for nepal. Last year they gave iran 3700 because asia was not meet regional quota
Click to expand...

You misunderstand. THe limit of 7% is always there - so at 50,000 visas the limit is 3500. Since Iran exceeded that last year it shows that they took the global limit as a number higher than 50k - and the only way they can do that is by using NACARA visas to raise the 50k number. Furthermore, 2013 had 51k visas issued globally - again - pretty easy to understand that the NACARA allocation was in play last year. It will be in play again this year - the only question remaining is how high they will let the numbers run - i.e. how many of the 5k NACARA allocation they will allow to be used.
 
ann said:
I didn't quiet get that..... do you mean there is no hope ;)
Click to expand...

No, I mean that your country has nothing to do with it. A person in country A at 17xxx has the same chance as a person from country B at 17xxx.

Will we get to 17XXX on the VB is the issue - and we don't know for sure - but it is possible. You just have to wait about another week to 10 days...
 
ann said:
I didn't quiet get that..... do you mean there is no hope ;)
Click to expand...
In your case, there is no negative effect of your country like mine ( NEPAL) . But there is no any extra benefit that one can get from any specific country. i personally guess there might be some hope in your case.
 
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