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All dv winners with EU CN 3x,xxx to 39,999 it's our time will we make it?

Britsimon said:
Coincidentally I ran the EU extract today. Eu has grown by 300 in the last week, roughly on track with the numbers I predicted from August interviews. In order to clear all EU August interviews they would get to around 17k. Aos cases are probably around 700/800 currently so that takes us to 18k max. AP clearing could add a couple of hundred to that. So it is unlikely that EU can surpass 18.5 by the end of August.

Meanwhile AF region looks unlikely to pass 19k by the end of August and AS can only get to about 8k. SA and Oc combined might add 2.5k. So, end of August looks like being 48k, maybe 49k. In other words I think all August interviews will be fine, but they may be holding back EU for the built up readies to see if they are going to process as latecomers. I am seeing a few of those, but not a surge.

I,ll run AF and AS regions tonight to see if there has been any big changes there in the last week.
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Well thank you for your optimism, I guess I should not be so down, since we did get the interview today and the case was approved, but I think that it is a concern if they right now are not confident to issue visas. Maybe they are waiting for the next VB? or something else, it is not clear to me what processes are really going on,,,I wonder what the situation is with EU CNs where the interviews are scheduled after mine 07 AUG...
 
Britsimon said:
Hmmmm..... there is no chance there is a confusion over the visa printing delay is there?
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she was very clear and the 221(g) she gave me clearly stated in her hand writing " additional processing - waiting for visa allocation " and she confirmed that our case was approved and all necessary documents were in order, but that the demand has been too high and there therefore was a hold on issuance. She said that they might contact me in 2-3 weeks if more visas were allocated from the world wide "pool". I am guessing they are looking to the next VB to see if the numbers for AUG/SEP hold or if there is retrogression as has happened with other categories…
 
Eucn said:
she was very clear and the 221(g) she gave me clearly stated in her hand writing " additional processing - waiting for visa allocation " and she confirmed that our case was approved and all necessary documents were in order, but that the demand has been too high and there therefore was a hold on issuance. She said that they might contact me in 2-3 weeks if more visas were allocated from the world wide "pool". I am guessing they are looking to the next VB to see if the numbers for AUG/SEP hold or if there is retrogression as has happened with other categories…
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Eucn said:
or maybe EU is hitting the unknown regional quota?
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:(
 
Eucn said:
Well we were not that lucky :-(

Went to the consulate this morning 07 August at the appointed time. The interview went very smooth and we were informed that our case was approved and all documents were fine, but that there now is a hold on issuance of DV visa due to high demand. It was not clear if it was for EU or world wide. The lady informed me that they were waiting to hear if there were any visas left world wide to distribute to our case and that we would be contacted by mail. The we got the dreaded AP paper with the note "Additional processing - Waiting for visa allocation".

I tried to quiz her on the chances, but she said that the demand had been higher than expected and because the fiscal year was ending everything was put on hold now until they have a clear picture of how many, if any, visas there were left to distribute to case numbers such as mine 38xxx
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Thank you for your update and very sorry for the issues you have encountered today. Somehow the situation seems to be unusual, as your consulate should have allocated the visa numbers to your case before the interview (approx. 7 days in advance). Is it possible that they have little experience with the DV process and did not do so? It will be interesting to hear from other EU interview cases today, August 7, in order to see whether we face a systemic EU issue or not. Best of luck to you!
 
EURO2014 said:
Thank you for your update and very sorry for the issues you have encountered today. Somehow the situation seems to be unusual, as your consulate should have allocated the visa numbers to your case before the interview (approx. 7 days in advance). Is it possible that they have little experience with the DV process and did not do so? It will be interesting to hear from other EU interview cases today, August 7, in order to see whether we face a systemic EU issue or not. Best of luck to you!
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thanx, I asked them about DV and they told me that even though China does not qualify the consulates still gets enough applicants that they are not surprised by the category showing up, but sure something has happened and this is still early August only 4 working days in, so lets see, but I am assuming that this situation is connected with the fact that the VB did not budge from August to September, meaning that since july they have been aware that things may be overheating.

Will be interesting to see if interviews will be cancelled or others will be pushed in AP like us for the same reason..
 
Eucn said:
thanx, I asked them about DV and they told me that even though China does not qualify the consulates still gets enough applicants that they are not surprised by the category showing up, but sure something has happened and this is still early August only 4 working days in, so lets see, but I am assuming that this situation is connected with the fact that the VB did not budge from August to September, meaning that since july they have been aware that things may be overheating.

Will be interesting to see if interviews will be cancelled or others will be pushed in AP like us for the same reason..
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Did they return your passports to you after the interview?
 
Yes, she gave me the passports, but I am not sure that this is the only reason they gave us back our passport,,,we don't live in this city and have to go home and cannot wait around in a hotel for weeks…she said that they would know if there were more visas in 2-3 weeks time, then they would email me and I should just ship them the passports.

I am not sure at what stage they/she knew there were no more visas right now, but she waited with telling us that until after we had paid, finger printed and given in documents…there was not much of an interview,,,,I asked her if she wanted to see my academic credentials and she looked irritated and said ok then,,,looked at them for a second and said fine,,,,They were not interested in my military records at all,,did not even want to see them…and no questions about financials. Only thing they really focused on was birth certificates, medicals, marriage certificate, police records and that we signed the applications I sent to KFC last year.
 
Hmmm. Sounds like a lousy CO. in reality they won't see many DV cases at that consulate, so perhaps her lack of experience was a factor.
 
Eucn said:
Yes, she gave me the passports, but I am not sure that this is the only reason they gave us back our passport,,,we don't live in this city and have to go home and cannot wait around in a hotel for weeks…she said that they would know if there were more visas in 2-3 weeks time, then they would email me and I should just ship them the passports.

I am not sure at what stage they/she knew there were no more visas right now, but she waited with telling us that until after we had paid, finger printed and given in documents…there was not much of an interview,,,,I asked her if she wanted to see my academic credentials and she looked irritated and said ok then,,,looked at them for a second and said fine,,,,They were not interested in my military records at all,,did not even want to see them…and no questions about financials. Only thing they really focused on was birth certificates, medicals, marriage certificate, police records and that we signed the applications I sent to KFC last year.
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You will presumably know shortly whether it is an EU wide issue you are facing, as in this case all EU interviews as of today should receive the same response, or whether the consulate just has messed up your DV case temporarily.
 
EURO2014 said:
You will presumably know shortly whether it is an EU wide issue you are facing, as in this case all EU interviews as of today should receive the same response, or whether the consulate just has messed up your DV case temporarily.
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True, I wrote KFC just know and asked for a status...
 
All right!

Eucn was processed in AS, while farma was in OC, so because of these factor things may be went all mixed up at their each respective embassies.....I hope so!
Let's wait and hear from EU cases that processed in EU .
 
vladek15425 said:
All right!

Eucn was processed in AS, while farma was in OC, so because of these factor things may be went all mixed up at their each respective embassies.....I hope so!
Let's wait and hear from EU cases that processed in EU .
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doesn't matter they are looking at the same data base. The EU category is so far maxed out and it probably happened just about now. We are the first to know out here due to the time difference. Rest of Europe will wake up to this about now…

Look the VB numbers have been frozen from August through September,,,so thats a clear indication that KFC was already getting worried in July that the region was filling up. The good news is that they did not retrogress and we will see an indication of what is happening once the next VB is out…then EU september will either be unchanged, retrogressed or unavailable.

My hope is that they are pausing at the edge of things and throw a few NACARAs our way or find a handful of unused visas.
 
I said it before and I will say this again :)


On top of that I think I have spent too much time on this forum. If next week they will put me on AP, well then tough shi#$%&! But now I will be stressing about something that I have no influence over.

Franko over and out.
Will let you know how it went in London next week.
 
Seems my back of a napkin prediction last year was sadly almost too accurate…eucn39266……..

Ok guys. A little statistical analysis should bring about some clarity to what every ones chances are based on case number rank
We know that about 15500 (31percent) visas are allocated to the euro area and last year 33000 won the lottery. Prior years indicate that the derivative factor may b 1,4 per winner as some winners have family. This would for 2013 have resulted in case numbers of around 46000 and will produce a total of around 11000 winners out of the 33000 selected in 2013.

This year a total of 20000 extra winners were selected of which I assume eu was allocated 31percent taking the u 2014 crowd up to 39000 winers and with the Same 1,4 factor this would produce about 55000 case numbers for 2014. Fits right?

Now the cut off depends on how many case numbers the process consumes per visa. This varies as some don't show up some don't do their paper work some die and some change plans.

So for the ongoing 2013 process we could assume that the DOS likes to process the same number of visa per month as their resources are static. This would in average mean 1291 visas per month. Thus the process should including June have produced 11625 visas. We know that June cut off is 31000. In other words the visa o case ratio is so far 11625/31000: 0,375. This means that it takes in average 2,667 case numbers to generate 1 visa so far. Thus it would take 41333 case numbers to fill the assumed eu quota. With a 5 percent s uncertainty the top range of case numbers getting visa would b between 39266…….
 
franko said:
I said it before and I will say this again :)


On top of that I think I have spent too much time on this forum. If next week they will put me on AP, well then tough shi#$%&! But now I will be stressing about something that I have no influence over.

Franko over and out.
Will let you know how it went in London next week.
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well good news is that your interview has not been cancelled.
 
One of my French friend in Paris got his interview the 5 of August and they say everything is ok and He will receive his passport in max 10 days.
They didn't talk about delay or unavailable visas.
 
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