All dv winners with EU CN 3x,xxx to 39,999 it's our time will we make it?
- Thread starter Eucn
- Start date
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
I'm EU395XX so if I won't get an interview followed by a visa I'm taking off to Kentucky to kick some serious KFC ***for notifying soooo many people.
But you are right, based on CEAC and possibility of extra visas for EU I think we have a shot at getting current in July. Don't really want to shorten my
life but May will be decisive month for a lot of people. DV2015 results and July VB
Yes you are right give them taste some colonel Sanders. I think next month vb will give us a clue. If they slow down in June we got to hang tight but if they add another 4-5K I think our 30k cohort is safe
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Hi everyone,
I'm in with CN 38,8 just after raevsky prédictions (38,7)
I really don't care to hâve an interview in september i just want to PASS!!!
I'm so scared that they stop before being current
Good luck to everybody
Hi Chicago I'm 38,6 so I know how you feel. However Raevsky has consistently been under shooting. Last summer he refused yo believe anyone beyond 33k would get a shot. No matte what imaginative model I have supplied it still seems 39,999 has a chance. Beyond that I'm not sure.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
I also do not care when I get my visa as long as I get it
Also stop worrying about predictions Dude.
Last May raevsky predicted 33k to be the max and advised people not to send documents because they would decrease their chances to get non immigrant visas. Now we have more data and I think his number will go up again. If I remember correctly, first it was 33, then 36 and then 38.5 so we are on the right track
Yes we are the 30Ks are marching forward to the US of A
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
July yes
I have to say August. I expect a slow down after our spring jumps. But hope you are right.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Good news is that you are pretty sure to get a interview June would be great but I suspect July.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Look for another thread reg Asia. Best of luck
Hi folks,
My CN is very high: 2014EU48XXX and i know that most predictions at the moment are, that i will never be current. Still I think that there will be a lot surprises until the end of September and there is a chance that all CN from EU will be current in Sept. with only less than 7000 visas given so far.
From what i have seen in this forum, data from last year shows, that there were 6000 visas for AF in Sept. They probably had hard time to fill up quota and if you would ask raevsky , if someone from AF will go to a interview with a case number over 100 000 for DV2013 i am sure his predictions will be, that his chances are slim to non. And all the CN were current in Sept.
I am aware that this 2014DV they notified 35k more than last DV but there must be a reason. I will advice everyone to be well prepared for the interview. CO may be more meticulous then before. If britsimon is right many AP may not get visas.
If we look at rafikbo76 CEAC DATA density of CN have dropped down from around 300 cases per 1000 csae numbers from the first 15000 CN to around 170/1000 CN for numbers after 20000. It is partially because of Uzbekistan but it's significant.
Next 2 VB will show it all and those with CN under 40k stop worrying. You will be in the next 2 VBs.
So cheer up. I am pretty sure I will get interview and even higher than my CN from EU will go to the embassy too.
Good luck everyone!
My CN is very high: 2014EU48XXX and i know that most predictions at the moment are, that i will never be current. Still I think that there will be a lot surprises until the end of September and there is a chance that all CN from EU will be current in Sept. with only less than 7000 visas given so far.
From what i have seen in this forum, data from last year shows, that there were 6000 visas for AF in Sept. They probably had hard time to fill up quota and if you would ask raevsky , if someone from AF will go to a interview with a case number over 100 000 for DV2013 i am sure his predictions will be, that his chances are slim to non. And all the CN were current in Sept.
I am aware that this 2014DV they notified 35k more than last DV but there must be a reason. I will advice everyone to be well prepared for the interview. CO may be more meticulous then before. If britsimon is right many AP may not get visas.
If we look at rafikbo76 CEAC DATA density of CN have dropped down from around 300 cases per 1000 csae numbers from the first 15000 CN to around 170/1000 CN for numbers after 20000. It is partially because of Uzbekistan but it's significant.
Next 2 VB will show it all and those with CN under 40k stop worrying. You will be in the next 2 VBs.
So cheer up. I am pretty sure I will get interview and even higher than my CN from EU will go to the embassy too.
Good luck everyone!
Chicago2014
Active Member
Look for 5 months 6671 visas for eu, now if we assume that eu will get the ''normal'' quota 16.5k
They will have to distribute 1.5k visas per month for the last 8 months process...to meet this quota
I think EU cases are not dence at all ! Thats why they are scheduling 5000 per month lately and it will certainly
Reach 44 cn +.
And witha oas at the end +naraca increase i believe the quota will be around 18.5k
Do you love me more now ??
Definitivly yes !
I believe you are right. There should be around 18-18.5k + possibly unused visas from other regions (AF?).
I just posted a new thread re: NACARA. Looks like there are not that many applications left.
Hi all,
Our case number is 376**
Three months ago we will be happy if someone will tell us that our interview will take place on sep. Now not. Now we will be happy if someone will tell us that our interview will be in July, and this will help the high CN to get their chances.
Congratulations to all
Our case number is 376**
Three months ago we will be happy if someone will tell us that our interview will take place on sep. Now not. Now we will be happy if someone will tell us that our interview will be in July, and this will help the high CN to get their chances.
Congratulations to all
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Hi eliolaz
You may be right. In statistics population maturation isa known factor meaning that the longer time passes between October 2012 the less likely the selected population is to follow through. So we may see fever active selectees per 1000 cn, but is till think a digestive slowdown is I the cards. Maybe a quite month I June or July and then acceleration. Good luck 40ks and to all in the 50k cohort
About the population maturation, there are only a few months left to send the forms to KCC. There have been 10 months already since May 1st 2013 when the results came off. I guess most of the selectees have sent their forms. I guess more than 85% of the selectees willing to send their forms have alreday done so.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
House ;
Look in the begining we belived that holes were only the ones that got eliminated by the sofware for fraudent entries,duplicates.....so we stayed with 140660 real cases, but now we concluded that the ones that dont follow with forms to kfc will also become holes, and the ones that did send forms but didnt show up will show as ready... So we can easy extrapolate a huge fall out from the 140k selected, and they wont be lot of return like you believe.....
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
So basicaly if the data shows that they proceeded for exemple 30k cases up to now! Than we can not deducted that 30k from 140k because of the what i call ''secondholes'' the one that didnt send forms, so the number 30k is way more than that ....
This what i believe ! What do you guys think?
This what i believe ! What do you guys think?
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
But how many will actually show up? Some who sent their forms last year in May or June might at this late stage have found other options or even changed their minds. The no shows should increase as our group matured.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
I read somewhere that the response rate from the selectee group is between 50 and 60 %. So let's say there is about 80k including derivatives who actually sent forms. Out of those I have heard 10% are denied and about 15 % don't follow through. If this was true then there are about 60,000 individuals to 50k visas plus some nacara spill over. At this stage around 40,000 individuals have been processed and we are 5,5 months in.