a new problem for Eb categories, it is going nowhere

TheRealCanadian said:
Thanks everyone for your posts. I think the more evidence we all bring up helps everyone understand the process better. We should all strive to develop an attitude of healthy skepticism. That's my goal here as well. Let me state two observations: First, I still think you're overly worried, and second all you've provided me are links by an attorney engaged in some idle speculation and a press release from AILA about elimination of the backlog.

In return, I have something you might wish to look at. It's a statement from the Inspector General of the Department of Labor.

http://www.oig.dol.gov/doltopchall04.pdf

There's a section on page 3 of the document called Problems with the Labor Certification process where they refer to the 315,000 case backlog. They make some interesting observations:

84% of the alien beneficiaries did not have work authorization;
72% of the alien beneficiaries were out of status;
69% of the applications were either "misrepresented or incomplete"

I don't know how many EB2 qualified folks are in that 84% or 72% number, or even how many EB3 people (don't forget that EB1 needs no LC at all, so the backlog cannot affect this category). Not too many. And that's assuming that these employers have even maintained their interest in the alien, up to almost four years later.

Let's assume hypothetically that all of the 16% with work authorization are valid EB2/EB3 folks, and that none of those folks have been laid off waiting for the LC to be approved. That's a huge if. Even so, 16% of 315,000 is just 50,400. Add two dependents per alien, and you're still looking at just a year's worth of EB numbers. Yes, you might see some per-country limits kicking in for India or China, but that's it.

This backlog really doesn't keep me up at night. Any thoughts? Have I interpreted these numbers wrong?
Click to expand...

well what this report said is not new. we know that around 230.000 of the cases came to DOL because of section 245(i) in april 2001. this section allowed many people who r illegals to file for green card. it is an amnesty for illegals. illegal means that those people didn't have appropriate papers as h1 or OPT or work permit, this is why this law came up. but at the end, most of these people r allowed to get a green card according to this law 245(i). so this report didn't add anything important because all this is well known. so the worry is still there about retrogression because a big part of those illegals (a big part of the 84 or 72 % mentioned above)will be illegibile for green card as any legal person.this is why we will face a problem because of the flood of those illegals.
 
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antonioa77 said:
so this report didn't add anything important because all this is well known. so the worry is still there about retrogression because a big part of those illegals will be illegibile for green card as any legal person.
Click to expand...

You miss my point.

What I am attempting to state is that most of these illegals are not eligible for EB2, and therefore will not retrogress those dates. They will fall under "Other Workers" which are limited to 10,000 per year, which has a minor effect on EB3. If they are predominantly from one country (ie. Mexico) they'll affect EB3 even less.
 
...

This gives us a good perspective. Thanks. Looks like 245(i) is probably not as bad as it seems for the people close to getting out of LC stage, though it will probably continue to plague people in the LC stage. Hope DOL will comeup with a better solution so that those incomplete, invalid and likely illegal applications do not continue to affect other cases.

In addition to this we need to understand few other factors for EB2 and EB3.

Answers to q's below may help us better understand the retrogression possibility and its extent...

1. How many cases are in USCIS backlog pipeline by category, EB1, EB2 and EB3?

2. How many visas were lost/unused due to backlogs in last 3 years?

3. What is the process (if there is one in place) on how DOS allows the trickling down of the visas esp. wrt changes in AC21?

From the visa bulletin it seems to me that they control visas so that no single caregory exceeds 28.6% during first 3 qtrs, and then let the visas trickle down if possible. Can some one validate this?

Thx,
 
i'm really pessimistic about this green card thing for all categories, simply bcs of the changing policies that at the end will affect USCIS.

imagine that when the new congress meets in january, they will begin working on this Bush' s guest worker plan for giving legal papers for illegals that r around 10 to 12 millions if not more. if this is done, this will be an avalanche of applications on uscis which will divert its actual resources that r already not sufficient. this leads to a complete stop of i-140 485.

in summary, always the illegals r ruining the life of the legals. it is unfair. an example is this 245(i) revival in april 2001 that backlogged the DOL.

hope i'm wrong in my pessimism.
 
Newsflash from Murthy website..

Visa numbers for EB3 category have retrogressed already and now the priority dates for India, China and Phillipines is Jan 01 2002...

Good luck...to me
 
If i want to apply GC under EB2 category,

my lower salary(base salary) should meett the prevailing wages....
is there a salary range that should be available like prevailing wage...for EB2 category..

Is there any exact number like 50000$ per year salary ...for EB2 qualification..
How it will be determined...I am trying to file from Chicago
 
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