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2017 DV LOTTERY COUNTDOWN TO MAY

Pierre82 said:
Nigeria is been affected by this: Those born in any territory that has sent more than 50,000 immigrants to the United States in the previous five years are not eligible to receive a diversity visa. They are some exceptions like Cuba for example.
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Nigeria is a different scenario to Ghana.
 
Britsimon said:
The 7% limit is on issued visas - so that gives around 3500 visas as a max limit to any one country. In practice, only Nepal, and perhaps Egypt come close to that limit. That is nothing to do with the limit on Ghana , which is a limit on selectees during the draw process. Through very high denied rates, Ghana gets nowhere near the 7% country cap - and wouldn't, even with far more selectees than they actually get. Limited countries like Ghana, Nepal and Egypt have selectees concentrated in the early number ranges. If you want to understand why that happens - read the link below.

http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
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I never stated that this was case for Ghana. I just added the general policy that is provided by the dept of state in their website, even if they don't reach the 7% does not mean the policy wont be applied and its consider for every eligible country.
 
Pierre82 said:
I never stated that this was case for Ghana. I just added the general policy that is provided by the dept of state in their website, even if they don't reach the 7% does not mean the policy wont be applied and its consider for every eligible country.
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Well, the policy is irrelevant for most countries - it only gets applied when the cap is reached. So technically you are correct, but for practical purposes as britsimon said, only selectees from a couple of countries need to be concerned about it (and then of course only if they have higher case numbers).
 
SusieQQQ said:
Well, the policy is irrelevant for most countries - it only gets applied when the cap is reached. So technically you are correct, but for practical purposes as britsimon said, only selectees from a couple of countries need to be concerned about it (and then of course only if they have higher case numbers).
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Thanks for the additional info SusieQQQ. You have a great weekend
 
Britsimon said:
OK - I hadn't checked which column of entries you had used, but now see you had mixed things up worse than I had thought.

Let's assume we are looking at Australia as an example.

Entrants for DV2015 was 14233, and the derivative rate is 1.45 (because the entrants had derivatives at registration of 6346).

The selected entrants number of 1798 INCLUDES derivatives - which means there were approximately 1240 winning cases (1798/1.45). I'm sure you are going to argue that based on the bolded statement you quoted earlier, but I can tell you I am quite correct.

So - in OC the DV2015 winning chance was 1240/14233 - 8.7%.

However, as you can confirm with anyone with a high OC number in DV2015 or DV2014, being selected is meaningless unless they get to your number. So - the "sensible" chance of selection (a selection that matters) is around 5% or less in OC - because that is all the region can stand in terms of quota - and my statement accounts for the non response rate that you mention. You will notice that the selectees for OC are far lower this year - (in actual fact, too low), but once the entries numbers are published I believe we will see the "usual" number of entries. That means the selectees this year (832) means there were around 573 winning cases, which equates to a winning chance of 4%. At that level, the quota will not be met - again supporting my statement that 5% is what is needed.
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Hi Britsimon!
How did you get/calculate the derivative rate for Australia? I'm trying to find it for Holland and want to do some statistics myself :) Or would you be able to tell me what somewhat the chance would be for the Netherlands (EU)?
Thanks in advance!!

25 more days to go guys!! Quite excited but definitely not getting my hopes up!
 
Pierre82 said:
I never stated that this was case for Ghana. I just added the general policy that is provided by the dept of state in their website, even if they don't reach the 7% does not mean the policy wont be applied and its consider for every eligible country.
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But you were answering a question about Ghana.... and since (as I explained) the cap is irrelevant for Ghana, you can see where the confusion started....
 
Britsimon said:
But you were answering a question about Ghana.... and since (as I explained) the cap is irrelevant for Ghana, you can see where the confusion started....
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I'm not here to argue with anyone. I'm just pointing out that adding general policy that is on the Dept of state website is not wrong. If you have more information specific about Ghana, that's perfect.
 
Florentine.n.Alex said:
Hi Britsimon!
How did you get/calculate the derivative rate for Australia? I'm trying to find it for Holland and want to do some statistics myself :) Or would you be able to tell me what somewhat the chance would be for the Netherlands (EU)?
Thanks in advance!!

25 more days to go guys!! Quite excited but definitely not getting my hopes up!
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Hi @Britsimon, did you get the chance to figure out my question? Super curious :) Thanks in advance!
 
Florentine.n.Alex said:
Hi @Britsimon, did you get the chance to figure out my question? Super curious :) Thanks in advance!
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It is simple - you just need the ratio between entries and family members - and that is published data.

A bunch of statistics here:-
https://travel.state.gov/content/vi...y-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html

Then entries for each year (three numbers - entries, family, total). Total/entries = derivative rate.
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...cs/DVApplicantEntrantsbyCountry 2013-2015.pdf


Here is the 2013 to 2015 data

Netherlands
5,419 4,543 9,962
5,984 5,171 11,155
5,585 4,746 10,331

Which gives derivative rates of:-

2015 - 1.85
2014 - 1.86
2013 - 1.84
 
Hello everyone.... This is gonna be my third attempt with the dv lottery .... I don't know if I should even count the first two times because I used a site in which I had to pay them to enter the lottery for me. After doing research on my own after the second year that's when I learned that I can do it myself. I also learned that the pictures which I uploaded in which they used for both loosing lotteries .... were wrong because of the background color.... but this year I did it myself so I'm really excited!!
 
hey guys, once again keeping my finger crossed, my knee down and asking the almighty to do it again. i was in dv2015 and curtains fall over sudenlly at 50k mark and i was in 60s. it was a tough days but we overcome it ... America ! we will keep try until the last minute. Wish you all best of luck;);)
 
Britsimon said:
That region gets a tiny amount of entries (about 1800 plus family members) and very few winners (7 or 8, plus family).

Good luck!
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hey britsimon , you doing a great work. i was with you in the dv2015, your prediction were on point which help to overcome stress. It prepared me early that i was not going to make it. once again thank you.
 
koechf said:
hey britsimon , you doing a great work. i was with you in the dv2015, your prediction were on point which help to overcome stress. It prepared me early that i was not going to make it. once again thank you.
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Well good luck for this year!
 
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