2017 DV LOTTERY COUNTDOWN TO MAY

[casatoor]

It mainly depends on your Case Number that will be given to you (if you were among lucky ones) starting May 3rd 2016. After that, in following months, you have to send DS260 form for further processing. And finally you will get an email with the date of your interview. Generally interviews starts in October 2016 and ends next year, usually in May.

Let me correct something here, if you don't mind Aleksander
The interviews will start on October 2016 and finishes on September 30th 2017 for DV 2017, if you don't get your second IL on these dates, you will not get your GC.

Basically the lower your case number let's say something from EU00001xxx the sooner the date of your interview, somewhere around October to December (Just an example which might not be accurate at all)

 

[Aleksandar]

I don't mind at all... And you are correct, sir. Because September 30th is the end of fiscal year. But I think that all interviews ends before that date, hence my answer. Which might not be accurate as well.

 

[Dman32]

It mainly depends on your Case Number that will be given to you (if you were among lucky ones) starting May 3rd 2016. After that, in following months, you have to send DS260 form for further processing. And finally you will get an email with the date of your interview. Generally interviews starts in October 2016 and ends next year, usually in May.

Thanks @alksandar and @Pierre82

very interesting

since you mentioned the DS260, I keep reading that lots of people have had issues with it, and they kept unlocking it to correct the info..I also looked at DS260 form "on Britsimon's Blog", I found it a bit challenging...

I know that i'm bringing future topics here, but what else can we talk about

 

[Aleksandar]

Thanks @alksandar and @Pierre82

very interesting

since you mentioned the DS260, I keep reading that lots of people have had issues with it, and they kept unlocking it to correct the info..I also looked at DS260 form "on Britsimon's Blog", I found it a bit challenging...

I know that i'm bringing future topics here, but what else can we talk about

No problem, we can talk about anything concerning DV... As for DS260 I haven't had a chance to be familiar with it "in person", I mean, yet , since this is my first try. But I don't think it will be such a problem. Important is to be calm and focused while answering those questions. Google and other forum members are here to help

 

[Sm1smom]

I don't mind at all... And you are correct, sir. Because September 30th is the end of fiscal year. But I think that all interviews ends before that date, hence my answer. Which might not be accurate as well.

Yep, your response isn't accurate. Interviews go all the way till Sept. 30th of each applicable FY.

 

[Aleksandar]

Thanks, didn't know that for sure. Minor mistake I hope...

 

[Claus Larsen]

Remember it is a lottery. In AF region the chance of winning is less than 1 in 100. That means one time in 100 years of trying. OC region is much better, about 1 in 20. Obviously a couple can increase their chances by both applying.

Check out (copy/paste, I cannot post link) travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/immigrate/diversity-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html
You can find number of entrants and selected per country.
DV2015 numbers
Argentina (SA): 109 selected / 5,819 entrants = 1.9% chance of being selected
Australia (OC): 1,798 selected / 14,233 entrants = 12.6% chance of being selected
Belgium (EU): 107 selected / 4,675 entrants = 2.3% chance of being selected
Ghana (AF): 3,381 selected / 1,537,292 entrants = 0.2% chance of being selected
Japan (AS): 636 selected / 28,521 entrants = 2.2% chance of being selected

 

[Pierre82]

yeah I read about the CN , but till now I didn't get how regions play any important role in them...the more I read, the more I get confused

as for the process, 6 months - 1 year seems ideal

To be honest, don't even worry about the regions. The main thing here is to be selected and with a decent CN, after that, then you look into the other stuff like the DS260 form and waiting for the interview date

 

[Britsimon]

Check out (copy/paste, I cannot post link) travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/immigrate/diversity-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html
You can find number of entrants and selected per country.
DV2015 numbers
Argentina (SA): 109 selected / 5,819 entrants = 1.9% chance of being selected
Australia (OC): 1,798 selected / 14,233 entrants = 12.6% chance of being selected
Belgium (EU): 107 selected / 4,675 entrants = 2.3% chance of being selected
Ghana (AF): 3,381 selected / 1,537,292 entrants = 0.2% chance of being selected
Japan (AS): 636 selected / 28,521 entrants = 2.2% chance of being selected

Not quite right.

The chance is actually uniform across a region, although certain countries are limited (such as Ghana). Also, the chance is per entry whereas the numbers for selectees are including derivatives. The entry numbers are probably the combined entry [plus derivatives only - but that skews the numbers.

Lastly, Australia looks high in chance - and to an extent it is true - but there were too many selectees in DV2015 for many countries so the 1798 were far more than could possibly be granted a Green Card. So - the winners number for OC should be closer to 5% chance.

 

[Claus Larsen]

Not quite right.

The chance is actually uniform across a region, although certain countries are limited (such as Ghana). Also, the chance is per entry whereas the numbers for selectees are including derivatives. The entry numbers are probably the combined entry [plus derivatives only - but that skews the numbers.

Lastly, Australia looks high in chance - and to an extent it is true - but there were too many selectees in DV2015 for many countries so the 1798 were far more than could possibly be granted a Green Card. So - the winners number for OC should be closer to 5% chance.

Yes the chance is approximately uniform across regions (but Ghana was not the best example), that why I only taken one country per region
And this is only talk about being selected, not about getting the green card.

About the numbers.
About selectees, it specifically says "Number of Selected Entrants for Recent DV Programs" on the mentioned page.
And the number of entries used is without derivatives.
So the numbers should be right.

And there is always selected far more than will be granted, they know a lot will not continue even though they were selected and others will be disqualified for various reasons.
DV2014 for Australia
Australia (OC): 2,104 selected / 14,756 entrants = 14.3% chance of being selected

 

[Britsimon]

Yes the chance is approximately uniform across regions (but Ghana was not the best example), that why I only taken one country per region
And this is only talk about being selected, not about getting the green card.

About the numbers.
About selectees, it specifically says "Number of Selected Entrants for Recent DV Programs" on the mentioned page.
And the number of entries used is without derivatives.
So the numbers should be right.

And there is always selected far more than will be granted, they know a lot will not continue even though they were selected and others will be disqualified for various reasons.
DV2014 for Australia
Australia (OC): 2,104 selected / 14,756 entrants = 14.3% chance of being selected

OK - I hadn't checked which column of entries you had used, but now see you had mixed things up worse than I had thought.

Let's assume we are looking at Australia as an example.

Entrants for DV2015 was 14233, and the derivative rate is 1.45 (because the entrants had derivatives at registration of 6346).

The selected entrants number of 1798 INCLUDES derivatives - which means there were approximately 1240 winning cases (1798/1.45). I'm sure you are going to argue that based on the bolded statement you quoted earlier, but I can tell you I am quite correct.

So - in OC the DV2015 winning chance was 1240/14233 - 8.7%.

However, as you can confirm with anyone with a high OC number in DV2015 or DV2014, being selected is meaningless unless they get to your number. So - the "sensible" chance of selection (a selection that matters) is around 5% or less in OC - because that is all the region can stand in terms of quota - and my statement accounts for the non response rate that you mention. You will notice that the selectees for OC are far lower this year - (in actual fact, too low), but once the entries numbers are published I believe we will see the "usual" number of entries. That means the selectees this year (832) means there were around 573 winning cases, which equates to a winning chance of 4%. At that level, the quota will not be met - again supporting my statement that 5% is what is needed.

 

[Claus Larsen]

The selected entrants number of 1798 INCLUDES derivatives - which means there were approximately 1240 winning cases (1798/1.45). I'm sure you are going to argue that based on the bolded statement you quoted earlier, but I can tell you I am quite correct.

No need to argue about it, I was just trying to provide some statistics. if you know that the number includes derivatives then you're math is of course right.
I was just assuming that if entrants on one page was without derivatives, it was also the case on the other page,.

 

[Yinbil]

Britsimon does it mean chances of being selected in Ghana is limited? And what is it limited on?
I'm from Ghana

Not quite right.

The chance is actually uniform across a region, although certain countries are limited (such as Ghana). Also, the chance is per entry whereas the numbers for selectees are including derivatives. The entry numbers are probably the combined entry [plus derivatives only - but that skews the numbers.

Lastly, Australia looks high in chance - and to an extent it is true - but there were too many selectees in DV2015 for many countries so the 1798 were far more than could possibly be granted a Green Card. So - the winners number for OC should be closer to 5% chance.

 

[Pierre82]

Britsimon does it mean chances of being selected in Ghana is limited? And what is it limited on?
I'm from Ghana

No more than seven percent of the total visas available can go to natives of any one country. I also think there is cap of 4,500 or 5,000 visas. Brit can provide more info as well but there is a cap

 

[Yinbil]

Yeh I heard of the capping too, I think that's what is currently affecting Nigeria

No more than seven percent of the total visas available can go to natives of any one country. I also think there is cap of 4,500 or 5,000 visas. Brit can provide more info as well but there is a cap

 

[Britsimon]

Britsimon does it mean chances of being selected in Ghana is limited? And what is it limited on?
I'm from Ghana

Yes ghana is limited. The number of entries from there are so extreme tgat the country is limited. Furthermore, the high volume of fraudulent cases in Accra means t h at getting approved there is very hard.

 

[Pierre82]

Yeh I heard of the capping too, I think that's what is currently affecting Nigeria

Nigeria is been affected by this: Those born in any territory that has sent more than 50,000 immigrants to the United States in the previous five years are not eligible to receive a diversity visa. They are some exceptions like Cuba for example.

 

[kiala]

Brit How about dr congo the odds of winning?

 

[kiala]

Brit I would like to know the odds of winning for drc

 

[Britsimon]

No more than seven percent of the total visas available can go to natives of any one country. I also think there is cap of 4,500 or 5,000 visas. Brit can provide more info as well but there is a cap

The 7% limit is on issued visas - so that gives around 3500 visas as a max limit to any one country. In practice, only Nepal, and perhaps Egypt come close to that limit. That is nothing to do with the limit on Ghana , which is a limit on selectees during the draw process. Through very high denied rates, Ghana gets nowhere near the 7% country cap - and wouldn't, even with far more selectees than they actually get. Limited countries like Ghana, Nepal and Egypt have selectees concentrated in the early number ranges. If you want to understand why that happens - read the link below.

http://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/