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2014 DV Australian winners

The sad thing is at 200x my CN isn't really even that high compared to the highest CN we've seen for OC (low 3000's). One would think that a CN sitting at maybe the 66th percentile of CNs for a region would be pretty much guaranteed to go current. At least that's what I thought at the beginning of all this...
 
What is 'CEAC' and who made this spreadsheet and where did they get the information?
It's very surprising to me how few visas were issued in Sydney the entire 2013 year.

So what is the general consensus, there's no way that Sydney is going to go hammer and tongs processing dozens/hundreds of interviews in September? and that high case numbers should just accept their unfortunate left behind fate?

Can someone tell me again please, what is the process with the interview offer / notification? The lucky last people, the september interviews, what will they get? an email sent to them offering the interview? when abouts will such an email be sent to them? Late July early August?

It's very hard to piece together the knowledge a lot of you seeming experts have, I know that until a region goes current, it's all in case number order, but when it does go current, do they then switch to offering interviews in the order the paperwork was mailed to Kentucky instead? Because maybe that's the only thing I have going for me, my paperwork was in by like May 5 or something because I was lucky enough to discover this forum of serious players.

Meh. Such a strange little 13-15 months of slight hope that this would get very serious, probably not gonna get serious is it.

My number is low 2000s.

And I'm a probable goner according to the sentiment here in this forum. So it seems to me that only people who get less than 1400 in OC should even get the slightest bit excited every May. Am I right?
 
In this CEAC spreadsheet, it has a q and a section, who is asking the questions? What does submitdate mean? What does statusdate mean?

Where did this information come from? How do we know it includes all of the activity in Sydney for September 2013?
 
Who generated this spread sheet, who is asking the questions, and who is answering them, is what I meant to ask. Thank you.
 
What is 'CEAC' and who made this spreadsheet and where did they get the information?
It's very surprising to me how few visas were issued in Sydney the entire 2013 year.

So what is the general consensus, there's no way that Sydney is going to go hammer and tongs processing dozens/hundreds of interviews in September? and that high case numbers should just accept their unfortunate left behind fate?

Can someone tell me again please, what is the process with the interview offer / notification? The lucky last people, the september interviews, what will they get? an email sent to them offering the interview? when abouts will such an email be sent to them? Late July early August?

It's very hard to piece together the knowledge a lot of you seeming experts have, I know that until a region goes current, it's all in case number order, but when it does go current, do they then switch to offering interviews in the order the paperwork was mailed to Kentucky instead? Because maybe that's the only thing I have going for me, my paperwork was in by like May 5 or something because I was lucky enough to discover this forum of serious players.

Meh. Such a strange little 13-15 months of slight hope that this would get very serious, probably not gonna get serious is it.

My number is low 2000s.

And I'm a probable goner according to the sentiment here in this forum. So it seems to me that only people who get less than 1400 in OC should even get the slightest bit excited every May. Am I right?

OK CEAC is this official website

https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx?eQs=o/iS8zDpeAKjMWCuebHqOw==

CEAC allows a person to enter a DV number (in the format 2014OC123) and see their case status. This only works once the case is current – and the data loaded.

Some clever people have created scripts that enter the numbers starting at 1 and incrementing automatically. The script then captures the result to a file – and those smart people then share the information with us.

About a week after the publishing of the VB (official – not our early peek), KCC send out emails to people who went current telling them to check the ESC website (where you saw the “you have been selected” letter). The interview details (date and time) are shown there.

Whilst overall progress is controlled by case number order, the final scheduling within a month and within each embassy is not necessarily in case number order.

As for how high OC will go – none of us know – we can only hope there will be a big increase in the next VB.
 
Thank you Brit Simon, and how do we know when this script was last run, can we be sure that it captured every interviewed sydney case from all of september 2013?

And so these case numbers in the spreadsheet, they reflect the exact same case numbers these people would have seen on their May barcode further processing selection letters, minus all the zeroes?

And when in the spreadsheet, it skips ahead 10, or 4, or 5, are we to assume that those 10, or 4, or 5 people just abandoned their applications?

Do we really know what the 'status date' field means?

So the spreadsheet doesn't say exactly when these people had their interview only they know this? not the script?
 
Hi everyone, I am actually a winner in the 2015 lottery for OC but have been watching this with interest. I feel for you guys so much, I read right through and it heart breaking !
I just wonder, could the low CN increases in the VB every month be because of a higher uptake of GCs and successful interviews compared to other years ? It just seems crazy. It is making me a bit nervous that my 'win' is barely worth taking seriously. Gosh 1450, seems barely a handful more than the total amount of GCs available to us. So could it be that a huge percentage of current interviewees are turing up and being successful. I have my fingers crossed for you all in next months VB
 
Congratulations on a slightly hopeful sounding CN hopefulinnz. I wouldn't be over the moon unless I had crawf style numbers, I think he was like 400 and something.

I call Britsimon's attention to his own post of 3 months ago..... where he appears to have commented about this spreadsheet data being incomplete?

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/ceac-data-up-to-02-mar-2014.320218/page-3#post-2336447

The 2013 data was incomplete - it missed about 10% of all cases.

We think (but cannot be sure) that it is better this year.
 
Thank you Brit Simon, and how do we know when this script was last run, can we be sure that it captured every interviewed sydney case from all of september 2013?

And so these case numbers in the spreadsheet, they reflect the exact same case numbers these people would have seen on their May barcode further processing selection letters, minus all the zeroes?

And when in the spreadsheet, it skips ahead 10, or 4, or 5, are we to assume that those 10, or 4, or 5 people just abandoned their applications?

Do we really know what the 'status date' field means?

So the spreadsheet doesn't say exactly when these people had their interview only they know this? not the script?

AS I mentioned above the CEAC system is ONLY updated when the case goes current (and is updated), so no it will not have all the cases in September.

THe numbers are the same number - people will see their own numbers.

When it skips it means there were holes. THese can be for disqualifications, holes created by country draw limits, aos cases (that don't show), and cases where the selectee has not yet submitted forms.

Staus date is the last time the case was updated - ignore it.
 
Thanks. So we don't really know much.

There was a comment so long ago, maybe from Crawf, I can't remember, someone saying they knew that Sydney consulate only does DV interviews a few days a week or worse, a few days a month? What was this info?

I still don't know what status update means in the spread sheet. I asked the Russian guy who makes these spreadsheets to tell me. There is an enormous amount of 27th of May 2014 status updates in the June CEAC data for Sydney consulate.
I would like to know if that means that over a dozen individuals and families were interviewed on 27th of May or it means something else. If every day until September 30 was like this 27th of May date we'd all be sweet.

 
"AS I mentioned above the CEAC system is ONLY updated when the case goes current (and is updated), so no it will not have all the cases in September."

I don't understand that at all. I understand that the CEAC system won't show a given case until that case is current, I don't understand how it then follows that we are not seeing every case that went current up to the end of September last year in DV2013 spreadsheet. And you say 'is updated'. What does this mean? That there were people interviewed in Sydney in very late September, where the state department doesn't bother updating the CEAC system, doesn't bother updating it? I'm sorry, I don't understand the actual reason why or if there are cases interviewed in September last year that are not reflected in the data in the spreadsheet.
 
"AS I mentioned above the CEAC system is ONLY updated when the case goes current (and is updated), so no it will not have all the cases in September."

I don't understand that at all. I understand that the CEAC system won't show a given case until that case is current, I don't understand how it then follows that we are not seeing every case that went current up to the end of September last year in DV2013 spreadsheet. And you say 'is updated'. What does this mean? That there were people interviewed in Sydney in very late September, where the state department doesn't bother updating the CEAC system, doesn't bother updating it? I'm sorry, I don't understand the actual reason why or if there are cases interviewed in September last year that are not reflected in the data in the spreadsheet.

OK - I see now you were talking about September 2013.

The thing about missing data is that it is missing. So it is difficult to identify what it it - or why/when/how it went missing.

What we do know is that the CEAC data (globally) was very light in the first three months of DV2013. We also know that the CEAC data produced by Raevsky (and posted on Wikipedia) only has about 45k visas issued. Later official numbers showed 51k visas were issued (and not all could be aos cases).

So - we are guessing that 10% (at least of issued cases) were missing. We also have suspicions that the highest cases were not updated because certain regions highest case numbers sound too low.
 
"We also have suspicions that the highest cases were not updated because certain regions highest case numbers sound too low."

What a delectable suspicion. I like that suspicion. I choose to share your suspicion. Because I am a wishful person. Lol. Let's hope your suspicion is correct. It could be, who knows, certainly not me, that being a bureaucracy and all, and being filled with warnings about how if you're not interviewed by September 30 you're totally done, maybe they just drop certain work like a hot potato come October 1. Maybe they do stop updating various things on computers and so on, and focus on the next year's one. I don't know.

Now can someone do me the immense favour of not making me look through 66 pages for the info that Crawf or someone had about the activity level, the days allocated per week or month or whatever it was, someone said they knew how often Sydney works on DV interviews, how many days are allocated for these things. I seem to recall it was something utterly depressing like a couple of days a month.

yes BritSimon, thanks, I was talking about September 2013, because I'm all about September 2014, my last white fading hope. I'm deeply interested in how busy the Sydney consulate was in September last year, and whether the highest case number interviewed and issued in September 2013 was genuinely the one listed in the spreadsheet, the depressing number 1600 and something. I'm all about hope for the people in the low 2000s. Thank you this has been an informative day of posts.
 
"We also have suspicions that the highest cases were not updated because certain regions highest case numbers sound too low."

What a delectable suspicion. I like that suspicion. I choose to share your suspicion. Because I am a wishful person. Lol. Let's hope your suspicion is correct. It could be, who knows, certainly not me, that being a bureaucracy and all, and being filled with warnings about how if you're not interviewed by September 30 you're totally done, maybe they just drop certain work like a hot potato come October 1. Maybe they do stop updating various things on computers and so on, and focus on the next year's one. I don't know.

Now can someone do me the immense favour of not making me look through 66 pages for the info that Crawf or someone had about the activity level, the days allocated per week or month or whatever it was, someone said they knew how often Sydney works on DV interviews, how many days are allocated for these things. I seem to recall it was something utterly depressing like a couple of days a month.

yes BritSimon, thanks, I was talking about September 2013, because I'm all about September 2014, my last white fading hope. I'm deeply interested in how busy the Sydney consulate was in September last year, and whether the highest case number interviewed and issued in September 2013 was genuinely the one listed in the spreadsheet, the depressing number 1600 and something. I'm all about hope for the people in the low 2000s. Thank you this has been an informative day of posts.


Actually the 1600 and something number sounds more realistic than some others. EU for instance only shows 30532 - when we know they were at 33k then current.

The Sydney interview dates are Tuesday - but I don't think the dates are the reason for the delay in OC in general.

Fingers crossed for you and other OC candidates - whatever the number...
 
"Actually the 1600 and something number sounds more realistic" vomit spew vomit time to face brass tacks. At 22xx I shouldn't self delude. I stand scarcely any chance of being called to any interview in Sydney. As a single bloke with no family of my own, I can assume some sticky fingered 4 year old boy with his face covered in fairy bread got the visa that I needed, probably way back in March. These people with families really do get their winning the lottery's worth.
 
I should say, these people with families and low numbers under 1200 get their winning's worth. A low number really is a win. A high number is just being teased, taunted and tempted and sentenced to 15 months of tantalizing wonder and what-ifs and forum reading. A high number may well be crueler than not being selected for further processing in the first place. A high number is to be invited to the dance, dress up in your prettiest clothes, and to be left as a wallflower that nobody wants to dance with. It would be better to stay at home and watch TV and not have to bother ironing your clothes and going out to the dance seeing all the cool kids have fun.

Does anybody have any opinions on the political future of the DV over the next decade? Was Hillary Clinton a supporter of it? If she becomes President for 8 years would she support keeping it? Do you think Republicans will get control of the senate and succeed with some new immigration bill killing the DV? What does anyone think? I won 2014 with a high useless number probably, lost 2015, will probably keep playing, because if I ever win and get a decent number, I'm home free.
 
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