2014 DV Australian winners
- Thread starter AU.Dan
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yep understood. Take a few days off from the board - think about something else for a while. We can't change what happens - so it is the sort of thing that drives you nuts!
Britsimon or Mijoro, could one of you please post a link to where I can find that data about how many visas have been issued so far for Oceania? Also, Britsimon, you write that you guess the highest case number for Oceania is "4500 or so", but didn't a previous visa bulletin say it was exactly 4215?
katemaccullen
New Member
Applying for an E-3 visa while waiting for diversity visa?
Hi all,
I actually posted a while back - my boyfriend had just been chosen for the next stage of the selection process, and I was asking about if we should get married. We have since had a lovely wedding in June 2013, and sent our forms off at the start of July 2013. (and with lots of photos to show the consulate!)
However, I'm in the same boat as a lot of other people here on the forums (such as Mijoro etc), and am freaking out a bit about if we will even get a green card! Our number is 2014OC000023XX, and with the March intake being 800, I just don't know if our number will even come up.
My question is - seeing as it's possible that it will get to September 2014, and our number won't have come up, is it worth my husband pursuing E-3 jobs in the US NOW, as opposed to waiting till September 2014?
He is a video games programmer, and a few of his friends have got jobs on E-3 visas, so we know that it's possible, but I'm not sure if we can apply for the E-3 while still going through the diversity visa process. We have already sent the second batch of forms in, as we didn't want to wait to submit them.
To put it in context as well - we've done a fair bit of research since finding out this month's numbers, and nothing I've read suggests that they would automatically reject his E-3 application due to the green card application. However, this may be incorrect, and any advice would be greatly appreciated!
I know that if we DID get the E-3, and then through some stroke of luck, also got a diversity visa interview, we would have to apply for an adjustment of status etc - but I just want to see if we should even attempt to try for an E-3 visa first!
Also, I would just like to say - while I don't post that much, these forums have been a lifeline for me while going through this process. Big thanks to BritSimon as well - I don't know how many people rely on your insights, but I suspect it's in the thousands!
Cheers,
Katie
DV2014OC000023XX
Gender: Female
Entry Checked: 01/05/2013
Forms sent to KCC: 5/7/2013
2nd NL: Not Yet
Documents: Not Yet
Police Report: Not Yet
Medicals: Not Yet
Interview:Not Yet
POE: LAX
Hi all,
I actually posted a while back - my boyfriend had just been chosen for the next stage of the selection process, and I was asking about if we should get married. We have since had a lovely wedding in June 2013, and sent our forms off at the start of July 2013. (and with lots of photos to show the consulate!)
However, I'm in the same boat as a lot of other people here on the forums (such as Mijoro etc), and am freaking out a bit about if we will even get a green card! Our number is 2014OC000023XX, and with the March intake being 800, I just don't know if our number will even come up.
My question is - seeing as it's possible that it will get to September 2014, and our number won't have come up, is it worth my husband pursuing E-3 jobs in the US NOW, as opposed to waiting till September 2014?
He is a video games programmer, and a few of his friends have got jobs on E-3 visas, so we know that it's possible, but I'm not sure if we can apply for the E-3 while still going through the diversity visa process. We have already sent the second batch of forms in, as we didn't want to wait to submit them.
To put it in context as well - we've done a fair bit of research since finding out this month's numbers, and nothing I've read suggests that they would automatically reject his E-3 application due to the green card application. However, this may be incorrect, and any advice would be greatly appreciated!
I know that if we DID get the E-3, and then through some stroke of luck, also got a diversity visa interview, we would have to apply for an adjustment of status etc - but I just want to see if we should even attempt to try for an E-3 visa first!
Also, I would just like to say - while I don't post that much, these forums have been a lifeline for me while going through this process. Big thanks to BritSimon as well - I don't know how many people rely on your insights, but I suspect it's in the thousands!
Cheers,
Katie
DV2014OC000023XX
Gender: Female
Entry Checked: 01/05/2013
Forms sent to KCC: 5/7/2013
2nd NL: Not Yet
Documents: Not Yet
Police Report: Not Yet
Medicals: Not Yet
Interview:Not Yet
POE: LAX
Britsimon
Super Moderator
4215 is the selectees (including family members - derivatives). Only the principal applicant gets a case number so roughly half of the 4215 are derivatives. The case numbers have gaps in the sequence which are cases that have been disqualified before even being notified. So, the highest case number is about 2100 PLUS a number of holes - "4500" was a rough guess about the highest case number - that could be high or low - I don't know what the actual case number is. Thinking about it I would expect it to be lower - fraud levels in OC wouldn't be that high. However, I haven't seen enough case numbers quoted to be sure what the could be - it could be much lower than I said. Generally when people want predictions we talk about case numbers and for the three largest regions we have a good idea of highest case numbers. It's harder for OC and SA because there are less of you....
By the way, Raevsky posted the CEAC data as of the end of December. That is here:-
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...Vl80MGJRN1dCLWRmcHV5LTcxRmc&usp=sharing#gid=9
If you are so inclined you can go to the source data on CEAC itself - and start entering numbers...
https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm a sucker for a bit of ego massage - so you got my attention (mind you, everyone does really).
The E3 plan. An E3 is very easy to get, the US company files for LCA, which takes less than 2 weeks and once that is obtained the applicant goes for a non-immigrant appointment at the consulate. Very straightforward - MUCH easier than the H1-B.
There are a couple of differences with the E3 and H1. Souses of E3 holders are able to work in the USA - not true for H1. However H1 is a dual intent visa - the E3 is not.
"Dual intent" means they understand and allow someone to simultaneously be applying/benefitting from the non immigrant and immigrant applications. This is a special exception as a non-immigrant visa application can be if the CO suspects the applicant has intention to try to remain in the US - i.e. have "immigrant intent". You have already declared immigrant intent when you submitted your 122/230 forms. So, if you now apply for an E3 you would have to answer YES when they ask if you have made an immigration application. However, that does not automatically mean you would get denied for the E3 (and in reality, I doubt it would be a problem).
So, let's say you get the job offer, get the E3 and move there. You would then need to adjust status when your number becomes current. As you know, your number is highish - so you won't get current until late in the year - perhaps September. If you start aos in September, there is a chance you could run out of time (you have to complete by 30th Sept. Some field offices are busier than others and you might get delayed getting an interview, and so FOs don't seem to realise the time sensitive nature of the DV process - so if you read the previous years aos threads you will find people that had a stressful September. I'm sure some have missed out on their DV chance that way. Furthermore, the time it takes is September means that visas could run out while you are waiting for yours. So - that is a gamble. I personally would probably not do that.
How about sitting tight for a few months? If the DV fails you could do the E3 later. You will know around mid July one way or another.
Hope that helps....
Mijoro
Well-Known Member
Hi Everyone,
I have started a Facebook group for Australians and Friends, it will be a place where we can collect info, post pics, videos and links. Much like this I guess but am hoping to turn it into a great info saving environment where we can store and share any handy hint and tips we find in the files section.
It is a closed group, so just apply and I will approve your application asap. Hopefully we can get this thing up and running.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/aussiegreencard/
I have started a Facebook group for Australians and Friends, it will be a place where we can collect info, post pics, videos and links. Much like this I guess but am hoping to turn it into a great info saving environment where we can store and share any handy hint and tips we find in the files section.
It is a closed group, so just apply and I will approve your application asap. Hopefully we can get this thing up and running.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/aussiegreencard/
Thanks for explaining that, Britsimon. I didn't realise that the number of selectees wasn't also the number of case numbers. I now understand why there may be more or less than 4215 case numbers.
Thanks too for posting the link to those December stats for Oceania. It seems that about only one in three case numbers makes it to the processing stage (the rest are presumably number "holes", or winning numbers whose owners didn't send in their forms). So if, for argument's sake, we generously assume that visas are issued to every single winner who makes it to the processing stage (and ignore the number of winners who are denied visas at interview time etc), could it be argued that if 730 visas are issued in 2014 (the same number as were issued in 2013), and if we were to times 730 by three, we'd get a rough idea of how many selectees will get an interview? That figure would be 2190, a figure similar to the actual number of selectees for 2013 (2193). By my reasoning, even if Oceania's regional quota hasn't increased for 2014, despite there being almost double the number of selectees, people with case numbers up to about 2200 should be fairly confident they'll get an interview. Britsimon, I know much less about this than you and your friends who write in the statistics thread, but do you think there's any merit in my reasoning? Also, am I right in assuming that 730 is the number of primary winners and doesn't include derivatives?
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Tony, I am not as bright as some of the stats people so I've read your theory 2 or 3 times and my head is spinning a bit. Let's see if we can clear this up...
Firstly, the 730 visas issued in 2013 would include derivatives.
In the CEAC data for 2014 (as published previously) we see case numbers going up to CN636 (the cutoff being 650) and that is from 200 rows accounting for 360 people. The 200 is the primary applicants and the 360 is those plus derivatives - 1.8 visas per case (a bit lower than my 1:1 suggestion earlier).
OK so you have taken the return rate as 200/636. As you say, the 436 includes holes (disqualifications) and people that have not submitted their forms yet. Some of that latter group may submit later. Also in the 436 are some cases that have been submitted but didn't make it in to CEAC (I think Mijoro found some added with a manual check) AND adjustment of status (aos) cases. Normally aos is quite low (less than 5% overall, but I would guess a bit higher for OC since Australia has an additional visa program - E3. So - it would not surprise me to find the total response rate is 20/30 cases higher than the 200, perhaps more. But still, between people that don't bother and holes, there are lots of gaps...
Now back to your point. We know 730 visas came from around 2193 selectees in 2013. However, you are also trying to figure out the visa per case number ratio - but I'm a bit lost with what you tried to do. There is a 3:1 ration of cases at processing stage to total case numbers BUT that covers more people than you are allowing for because we are talking case numbers versus cases with derivatives. So when you make the leap to case numbers up to 2200 being ok that is a bit problematic to justify in the maths ALTHOUGH I think the end result is about right.
There are some other ways to say what you are trying to get at. Let's try and construct some safe deductions and see of some of those give you some comfort.
The highest OC case number in 2013 CEAC data was 1638. We know that data is missing some cases, but it is pretty good. So the 2193 were spread among 1700 cases numbers. The 2013 data shows 493 cases affecting 862 people. So - roughly the same derivative rate of 1.8 people per case and roughly one third of the cases returned. Since we know there we originally 2193 selectees that should have been about 1200 primary applicants. That means at least 500 cases were holes. So we can guess that about 60 cases were aos.
So 2013 had 2193 selectees (fact)
Max case number around 1700 (guesstimate)
500 cases were holes (guesstimate)
1200 cases in total (guesstimate)
60 were aos (guesstimate)
Around half of the cases were filed (guesstimate)
730 visas were issued (fact)
Issuing 730 cases did not hit any limit (region or global)
I'm not sure if any of those statements help clarify your thinking.
I think that means that case numbers under 1700 are safe because comparison to last year. The 1700 should yield about 730 visas if things are pretty much the same as last year.
In 2014 the amount of visas issued to OC will probably reach a limit. We know there is around 5% more visas globally (because of NACARA unused visas) and there is compelling evidence to assume that OC has had a disproportionate increase in quota. Let's say (conservatively) that OC will get 900 visas this year. In fact that may have nbeen the target last year, but they failed to fill the quota. We don't know how much they underfilled the quota, it might have been 1 visa more than the 730 or 200 visas more than the 730. Using the 730/1700 ratio, a increase to 900 available visas should increase the max case number to 2143. That is getting better, but it is not quite what you want to see. 900 is quite a conservative estimate though - I think the number is higher than that.
I think I've explained this before, but looking at the split in selectees between the regions is probably a good sign of the approximate split in regional quota. So - if AF was supposed to get 50% of the final visa count they would have 50% of the selectees - make sense? In actual fact OC has generally been getting around 2% of the selectees so you could reasonably assume they should get 2% of the final visa split. That means they might have had a theoretical limit (quota) of about 1000 visas last year. This year, the OC selectee split is increased to 3%. That MUST mean something. It could be another artifact of the 2012 fiasco, but I don't think so. I think that means the quota will be higher - I wouldn't be surprised to see OC get 1200/1300 visas - and that would take care of 90% of the OC selectees.
Sorry - this is a rambling post - hopefully there is something in here that helps clarify some things...
That wasn't a "rambling post" at all, Britsimon -- all good info, so thanks. I was confused by selectee numbers versus winner numbers versus visa numbers, but I think I get it now. And I didn't realise that last year's 730 visas included derivatives.
All of what you say sounds logical, but the fact that the Oceania monthly numbers are moving so slowly makes me wonder if you're in fact more logical and considered in your approach than is KCC. It's possible, I guess, that this year's high number of selectees for Oceania compared to other regions doesn't mean our quota has gone up, and that maybe it was just some sort of a mistake or was needs calculated but based on the botched 2012 lottery. In any event, I'm hopeful but not confident that my 22XX case number will get an interview. I do wish KCC would be a bit more upfront as to their process. I don't see how it would harm them to give selectees an explanation for the higher number of selectees and perhaps even a non-binding monthly estimate of how high they expect to go with case number interviews based on current approval rates. It would be great if they could include something like that in their monthly bulletin.
All of what you say sounds logical, but the fact that the Oceania monthly numbers are moving so slowly makes me wonder if you're in fact more logical and considered in your approach than is KCC. It's possible, I guess, that this year's high number of selectees for Oceania compared to other regions doesn't mean our quota has gone up, and that maybe it was just some sort of a mistake or was needs calculated but based on the botched 2012 lottery. In any event, I'm hopeful but not confident that my 22XX case number will get an interview. I do wish KCC would be a bit more upfront as to their process. I don't see how it would harm them to give selectees an explanation for the higher number of selectees and perhaps even a non-binding monthly estimate of how high they expect to go with case number interviews based on current approval rates. It would be great if they could include something like that in their monthly bulletin.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Britsimon and Vichel, many thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer my questions back in November. Sincere apologies for not acknowledging the effort sooner, but I really appreciate it.
Looking at my reply I predicted then that you would be current in March/April. As you can see, things are going slower than that - so more like May/June. However, your number is still considered very safe....
Did you get married yet?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
"Brilliant" I'm not so sure - but borrow anything you want....
2014hopeful
Registered Users (C)
Hi guys,
Just wondering if anyone expecting to be interviewed in March has received their 2nd NL yet? Maybe I'm jumping the gun but it's been a few days since the numbers were released and I'm concerned in case I haven't heard anything because there was something wrong with the forms I sent through to Kentucky. I'm sure there wasn't but after waiting on tenterhooks for the last six months, I'm eager to get the ball rolling!
Just wondering if anyone expecting to be interviewed in March has received their 2nd NL yet? Maybe I'm jumping the gun but it's been a few days since the numbers were released and I'm concerned in case I haven't heard anything because there was something wrong with the forms I sent through to Kentucky. I'm sure there wasn't but after waiting on tenterhooks for the last six months, I'm eager to get the ball rolling!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
You're jumping the gun. Emails will go out in the next few days.
2014hopeful
Registered Users (C)
Relieved to hear it. Thanks Britsimon!
I was just about to ask the same question! Very relieved to hear that I'm not alone. This forum really is a life saver
paulthegolfer
New Member
Thanks everyone for all your valuable information - I feel the frustration of those with higher numbers and hope all goes well down the track.
Things are beginning to get real for us now - expect our interview in May the way the numbers are running - so much to do as we are a little older - property, tax, super etc.
Will attempt to advise our progress.
Things are beginning to get real for us now - expect our interview in May the way the numbers are running - so much to do as we are a little older - property, tax, super etc.
Will attempt to advise our progress.