Search results

One more point is that I think DOS is putting 30% extra on top of the regional quota. So that explain why SA has no change in Aug cut off. Based on dv13, SA issued 900+ visas and let assume the SA quota is 1.2k and up to July SA already have roughly 1.6k selectees scheduled for interviews which...

Yes, that definitely possible but DOS needs to calculate all this before July, so DOS needs to make an estimates and even with that I think NACARA will come to rescue. So, if Iran happen to take extra of 500 more visas it could cover by NACARA.

Based on the latest stats, following is my predictions for Sept cut off: Nepal might have another 350 visa slots and that make bring Nepal to 10.5k max. That will get Nepal to close to 3.5k issued based on the success rate of more than 90%. No show only 2.4% and and refused rate is 3.3% which...

This stats are 30 min ago using CEAC data: Rest of Asia - 2398 (Up to May: 1767) AP: 307 (17.3%) Issued: 1119 (63.3%) Ready: 861 (Up to May: 230) (Potential "No Show": 13%) Refused: 111 (6.2%) Iran - 4112 (Up to May: 3412) AP: 1835 (53.7%) Issued: 1198 (35.1%) Ready: 1023 (Up to May: 323)...

I totally agreed with your interpretation. With this, more and more I believe the NACARA visas might be serve as a buffer for over allocated interviews. Meaning it will only use the NACARA when it needs extra visa and that also mean DOS will only target 50k interviews with buffer (should be...

Which regions specifically and where do you get this info? If you don't mind, can you share this info with us which is very critical info at this moment.

Sure, I can get it for you later.

Yes, about that range.

Err... What kind of detail you needed?

Your way of calculating are assuming KCC already know the Iran AP success rate by end of June. Remember, by end of this month, DOS will come out the last batch of visa slots for all regions and the only data that DOS has is up to June. So they have to make some educational guess what will happen...

Yes, this is for all Asia. It includes Nepal, Iran and Rest of Asia.

In order to make sure Asia has enough visa for the scheduled interview selectees, I am tracking the progress from Jun to mid of Sept in weekly basis. (update weekly) If following target not met, it mean Asia still have visas available up to end of Sept. End of June: 5.5k Issued End of July...

Interview schedule is done by embassy and not in KCC. So it is up to the embassy and if the embasssy is not busy your interview will be earlier even your case # is higher compare to those in a busy embassy.

Don't put your assumption of 7% of 55k. Official limit is 7% of 50k. Of course DOS will allow to go beyond 3500 like what happen to Iran in dv13 but I think it will only do that when the buffer is overrun. Let say Nepal has 3800 selectees schedule for interviews and based on Nepal success rate...

My guess is that AS will be scheduling 13k selectees for interviews and around 3k fall out with the following breakdown: 1k - No show 1k - AP unclear 500 - Refused 500 - Excess from Nepal and Iran Up to July cut off Asia already have scheduled 10k selectees for interviews so we have 3k...

Where you get this? This doesn't look like a quota to me. Maybe in the old days they have such as precise quota. Anyway, with recent DV, EU has been reduced and AF and AS has been increased a little. Based on DV13, we can roughly work out the so called regional quotas. (with assumption of 54.5k...

Yes, this could be a rough indication but I think the visa exhaustion might be different by regions because the # of embassy processing it, how many country still have high interview appointments for Sept and AP clearing rate in the final month are all different in different regions.

Yes, if your country have relatively low immigration applicants to US then your interview will be most likely 1st or 2nd week of the month.

Without regional limits it will be hard to manage. I believe regional limits do exist but if a region do not use the allocated visa slots by September, I am sure it will open up for other regions. Based on the outcome so far, all regions will likely overallocated in Sept.