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Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept

Kayend

Kayend

Active Member
In order to make sure Asia has enough visa for the scheduled interview selectees, I am tracking the progress from Jun to mid of Sept in weekly basis. (update weekly)

If following target not met, it mean Asia still have visas available up to end of Sept.
End of June: 5.5k Issued
End of July: 6.5k Issued
End of Aug: 8k Issued

4th Weekly Update
# of Issued as of 27th June: 5283 + 310 = 5593 selectees
Nepal: 2450 + 75 + 23 = 2548
Iran: 1589 + 38 + 129 = 1756
Rest of Asia: 1244 + 25 + 20 = 1289

4th week of June (from 22nd June to 27th June changes)

AP changed to Issued - 78 cases/172 selectees
AP changed to Ready (2nd Interview for some cases) - 5 cases/12 selectees
AP changed to Refused - 9 case/17 selectees

Ready changed for cases up to June cut off:
Ready changed to Issued - 62 cases/138 selectees
Ready changed to AP - 53 cases/96 selectees
Ready changed to Refused - 8 case/20 selectees

3rd week of June (from 15th June to 21st June changes)

AP changed to Issued - 111 cases/242 selectees
AP changed to Ready (2nd Interview for some cases) - 4 cases/9 selectees
AP changed to Refused - 0 case/0 selectees

Ready changed for cases up to Apr cut off:
Ready changed to Issued - 4 cases/10 selectees
Ready changed to AP - 6 cases/8 selectees
Ready changed to Refused - 0 case/0 selectees

2nd week of June (from 6th June to 14th June changes)

AP changed to Issued - 85 cases/181 selectees
AP changed to Ready (2nd Interview for some cases) - 3 cases/8 selectees
AP changed to Refused - 1 case/4 selectees

Ready changed for cases up to Apr cut off:
Ready changed to Issued - 3 cases/5 selectees
Ready changed to AP - 10 cases/18 selectees
Ready changed to Refused - 0 case/0 selectees

1st week of June (from 3rd June to 6th June changes)

AP changed to Issued - 34 cases/76 selectees
AP changed to Ready (2nd Interview for some cases) - 4 cases/8 selectees
AP changed to Refused - 1 case/3 selectees

Ready changed for cases up to Apr cut off:
Ready changed to Issued - 11 cases/18 selectees
Ready changed to AP - 4 cases/6 selectees
Ready changed to Refused - 1 case/2 selectees
 
Last edited:
Kayend
Plz calculate for nepal too or is this wid nepal ?

I am.still hopeful to be current.
 
Kayend said:
In order to make sure Asia has enough visa for the scheduled interview selectees, I am tracking the progress from Jun to mid of Sept in weekly basis. (update weekly)

If following target not met, it mean Asia still have visas available up to end of Sept.

# of Issued as of 6th June: 4536 selectees
Nepal: 2260
Iran: 1160
Rest of Asia: 1116

End of June: 5.5k Issued
End of July: 6.5k Issued
End of Aug: 8k Issued

1st week of June (from 3rd June to 6th June changes)

AP changed to Issued - 34 cases/76 selectees
AP changed to Ready (2nd Interview for some cases) - 4 cases/8 selectees
AP changed to Refused - 1 case/3 selectees

Ready changed for cases up to Apr cut off:
Ready changed to Issued - 11 cases/18 selectees
Ready changed to AP - 4 cases/6 selectees
Ready changed to Refused - 1 case/2 selectees
Click to expand...
I appreciate highly your efforts. Im from AS with 23XXX .
 
Well. Ankara DV doc http://photos.state.gov/libraries/turkey/840293/Consular/PACKET_DIVERSITY VISA INSTRUCTIONS_docx GSS.pdf notes that "most" Iranian applicants require 'extensive' AP and that this usually takes at least 8 weeks to complete. Presumably KCC factors this in when making appointments for Iran. So there just may not be many appointments at all for Iran in Aug/Sept?

Also, as I alluded in another post, I think we misinterpreted the notice from Ankara last year. It does not actually say that interviews were cancelled. What it says that visas were exhausted and so people must not send passports in even if they received notice that AP is complete. If you look at it that way the implication is pretty much that all the scheduled interviews had been completed already. Link here, does anyone disagree with this interpretation? turkey.usembassy.gov/mobile//wn_92013.html
 
SusieQQQ said:
Well. Ankara DV doc http://photos.state.gov/libraries/turkey/840293/Consular/PACKET_DIVERSITY VISA INSTRUCTIONS_docx GSS.pdf notes that "most" Iranian applicants require 'extensive' AP and that this usually takes at least 8 weeks to complete. Presumably KCC factors this in when making appointments for Iran. So there just may not be many appointments at all for Iran in Aug/Sept?

Also, as I alluded in another post, I think we misinterpreted the notice from Ankara last year. It does not actually say that interviews were cancelled. What it says that visas were exhausted and so people must not send passports in even if they received notice that AP is complete. If you look at it that way the implication is pretty much that all the scheduled interviews had been completed already. Link here, does anyone disagree with this interpretation? turkey.usembassy.gov/mobile//wn_92013.html
Click to expand...

I totally agreed with your interpretation. With this, more and more I believe the NACARA visas might be serve as a buffer for over allocated interviews. Meaning it will only use the NACARA when it needs extra visa and that also mean DOS will only target 50k interviews with buffer (should be around 30% on average).
 
This stats are 30 min ago using CEAC data:

Rest of Asia - 2398 (Up to May: 1767)
AP: 307 (17.3%)
Issued: 1119 (63.3%)
Ready: 861 (Up to May: 230) (Potential "No Show": 13%)
Refused: 111 (6.2%)

Iran - 4112 (Up to May: 3412)
AP: 1835 (53.7%)
Issued: 1198 (35.1%)
Ready: 1023 (Up to May: 323) (Potential "No Show": 9.4%)
Refused: 89 (2.6%)

Nepal - 3463 (Up to May: 2612)
AP: 201 (7.6%)
Issued: 2292 (87.7%)
Ready: 916 (Up to Apr: 65) (Potential "No Show": 2.4%)
Refused: 87 (3.3%)
 
Based on the latest stats, following is my predictions for Sept cut off:

Nepal might have another 350 visa slots and that make bring Nepal to 10.5k max. That will get Nepal to close to 3.5k issued based on the success rate of more than 90%. No show only 2.4% and and refused rate is 3.3% which mean Nepal success rate might be in 92-93% success rate so a lot of Nepalese will be disappointed this year.

Iran already max out in July, so it will follow the Rest of Asia cut off.

In order to calculate the final cut off for Asia, we need to know 2 important figures. The Asia quota and success rate for Rest of Asia and Iran. Nepal will be taking its own country quota and we can safely deduct the quota with 3.5k. So, based on the DV13 stats, we can also safely assume the regional quota to be 9.4k. So, 9.4k - 3.5k = 5.9k available visas for Rest of Asia and Iran.

Iran success rate is (1/2 AP: ~27% + Issued:~35%) = 63%. With Iran being max out in July, we can assume 4.2k visa slots allocated to Iran and with 63%, Iran will have 2646 and let make it to 2700 visas will be taken by Iran. So, it left 3.2k visas for Rest of Asia.

Rest of Asia success rate is (1/2 AP:~9% + Issued:~64%) = 73%. So, Rest of Asia need to have roughly 4350 selectees interview scheduled. 4350 - selectees up to July 2398 = 1952. Let make it 1950. In Aug cut off, Rest of Asia jump 3.8k so it should have 950. So, it should have left 1000 or so visa in Sept cut off for Rest of Asia. With 1k visa slots it will put Asia final cut off to 12700 + 4000 (25% density per 1k CN) = 16700.

Conclusion:
Sept cut off: Asia 16,700 (Nepal 10.5k).

This is purely based on stats and data from CEAC. AOS will take up 2% that can be safely absorb into the above conservative calculation. Previously I have been predicted it will go as high as 19.1k and that figure is based on 10k regional quota. I am taking a more conservative calculation for my prediction to avoid given false hope as much as possible.
 
Kayend said:
Based on the latest stats, following is my predictions for Sept cut off:

Nepal might have another 350 visa slots and that make bring Nepal to 10.5k max. That will get Nepal to close to 3.5k issued based on the success rate of more than 90%. No show only 2.4% and and refused rate is 3.3% which mean Nepal success rate might be in 92-93% success rate so a lot of Nepalese will be disappointed this year.

Iran already max out in July, so it will follow the Rest of Asia cut off.

In order to calculate the final cut off for Asia, we need to know 2 important figures. The Asia quota and success rate for Rest of Asia and Iran. Nepal will be taking its own country quota and we can safely deduct the quota with 3.5k. So, based on the DV13 stats, we can also safely assume the regional quota to be 9.4k. So, 9.4k - 3.5k = 5.9k available visas for Rest of Asia and Iran.

Iran success rate is (1/2 AP: ~27% + Issued:~35%) = 63%. With Iran being max out in July, we can assume 4.2k visa slots allocated to Iran and with 63%, Iran will have 2646 and let make it to 2700 visas will be taken by Iran. So, it left 3.2k visas for Rest of Asia.

Rest of Asia success rate is (1/2 AP:~9% + Issued:~64%) = 73%. So, Rest of Asia need to have roughly 4350 selectees interview scheduled. 4350 - selectees up to July 2398 = 1952. Let make it 1950. In Aug cut off, Rest of Asia jump 3.8k so it should have 950. So, it should have left 1000 or so visa in Sept cut off for Rest of Asia. With 1k visa slots it will put Asia final cut off to 12700 + 4000 (25% density per 1k CN) = 16700.

Conclusion:
Sept cut off: Asia 16,700 (Nepal 10.5k).

This is purely based on stats and data from CEAC. AOS will take up 2% that can be safely absorb into the above conservative calculation. Previously I have been predicted it will go as high as 19.1k and that figure is based on 10k regional quota. I am taking a more conservative calculation for my prediction to avoid given false hope as much as possible.
Click to expand...

That all sounds sensible. I think Iran might convert more of those AP cases to issued - so could end up taking more than the 2700 number. Just a hunch based on what probably happened last year.
 
Britsimon said:
That all sounds sensible. I think Iran might convert more of those AP cases to issued - so could end up taking more than the 2700 number. Just a hunch based on what probably happened last year.
Click to expand...

Yes, that definitely possible but DOS needs to calculate all this before July, so DOS needs to make an estimates and even with that I think NACARA will come to rescue. So, if Iran happen to take extra of 500 more visas it could cover by NACARA.
 
One more point is that I think DOS is putting 30% extra on top of the regional quota. So that explain why SA has no change in Aug cut off. Based on dv13, SA issued 900+ visas and let assume the SA quota is 1.2k and up to July SA already have roughly 1.6k selectees scheduled for interviews which is more than 30% extra. With this info, we can use it to cross check with other regions like Asia, up to August it should have around 11.2k selectees and adding 1k more will make it to 12.2k, so that is about 30% extra from 9.4k quota.
 
Kayend said:
Yes, that definitely possible but DOS needs to calculate all this before July, so DOS needs to make an estimates and even with that I think NACARA will come to rescue. So, if Iran happen to take extra of 500 more visas it could cover by NACARA.
Click to expand...

Nacara cannot be selectively used for one country. It increases the pot for everyone, so it won't be used to come to the rescue of Iran or Asia, it might simply increase the overall quota (and thereby, possibly the quota per region, if such a thing exists.
 
Kayend said:
Based on the latest stats, following is my predictions for Sept cut off:

Nepal might have another 350 visa slots and that make bring Nepal to 10.5k max. That will get Nepal to close to 3.5k issued based on the success rate of more than 90%. No show only 2.4% and and refused rate is 3.3% which mean Nepal success rate might be in 92-93% success rate so a lot of Nepalese will be disappointed this year.

Iran already max out in July, so it will follow the Rest of Asia cut off.

In order to calculate the final cut off for Asia, we need to know 2 important figures. The Asia quota and success rate for Rest of Asia and Iran. Nepal will be taking its own country quota and we can safely deduct the quota with 3.5k. So, based on the DV13 stats, we can also safely assume the regional quota to be 9.4k. So, 9.4k - 3.5k = 5.9k available visas for Rest of Asia and Iran.

Iran success rate is (1/2 AP: ~27% + Issued:~35%) = 63%. With Iran being max out in July, we can assume 4.2k visa slots allocated to Iran and with 63%, Iran will have 2646 and let make it to 2700 visas will be taken by Iran. So, it left 3.2k visas for Rest of Asia.

Rest of Asia success rate is (1/2 AP:~9% + Issued:~64%) = 73%. So, Rest of Asia need to have roughly 4350 selectees interview scheduled. 4350 - selectees up to July 2398 = 1952. Let make it 1950. In Aug cut off, Rest of Asia jump 3.8k so it should have 950. So, it should have left 1000 or so visa in Sept cut off for Rest of Asia. With 1k visa slots it will put Asia final cut off to 12700 + 4000 (25% density per 1k CN) = 16700.

Conclusion:
Sept cut off: Asia 16,700 (Nepal 10.5k).

This is purely based on stats and data from CEAC. AOS will take up 2% that can be safely absorb into the above conservative calculation. Previously I have been predicted it will go as high as 19.1k and that figure is based on 10k regional quota. I am taking a more conservative calculation for my prediction to avoid given false hope as much as possible.
Click to expand...

i could follow all of your logics, but I don't get it about Iran. If Iran will have already maxed out in July, why will it follow the rest of Asia cut off? And why Iran's quota is only 2700 visa? I ask these questions because I am trying to educate myself, not to question your logics or anything. Thanks!
 
Kayend u are doing great job extracting data from CEAC..are those 87 rejections real for Nepal? And what about non-show ups at interview? Any data about them?
 
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