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DV 2021 ALL SELECTEES

There is a hearing in July but it's not the final one and the judge is in no hurry (dealing with much more important cases atm) so I would not expect something soon. Which means that DV2021 is probably going to run into the same issue. It's going to be something...
 
Britsimon said:
The lawsuits right now are mostly focused on the mandamus aspect. There is no actual ban affecting anyone, the government is simply working far too slow, and applying a prioritization that appears to be without justification. So the mandamus action will ask the Judge to instruct the government to take action, and if that doesn't work in time, then to preserve the visas to gain time. That is generally the strategy.
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Kuck and Morrison have two different approaches regarding this but it's generally the same strategy. (Morrison mentioned it during a chat this week) I think Morrison actually has a strategy (legal argument) at this point but I haven't looked too closely either to be honest. I do agree with Simon and Susie that the chances are small but bigger than just hoping for the best. (Especially if you are in a country with thousands of winners. In that case, I don't think much can be done anyways) Again, I think you have a much higher chance if you are from a country with a low number of winners AND a consulate not dealing with too many DV cases.

Also, a lot of us have said this probably 10x by now but what worked last year doesn't mean that it will work this year!

And unless I am wrong, according to latest data from the government, things have been ramping up a bit this month: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vyHZC8qIv_PJZoAZoI2U0uu5jV-H9dRZ/view (Page 3) The issuance of Green Cards remains incredibly low, unfortunately.
 
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puda said:
And unless I am wrong, according to latest data from the government, things have been ramping up a bit this month: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vyHZC8qIv_PJZoAZoI2U0uu5jV-H9dRZ/view (Page 3) The issuance of Green Cards remains incredibly low, unfortunately.
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Interesting update. During the final week, 767 cases representing 1477 individual applicants were scheduled for interview. On a simplistic 4 week month, that’s equivalent to nearly 6000 selectees a month. That’s already an increase on “normal“ non pandemic DV issuance (4500-5000 visas a month). Kind of undercuts the argument about being slow? i know they’ve been slow till now but maybe this is just finally representing the scheduling machine returning to normal. Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks.
 
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SusieQQQ said:
Where are you asking? Twitter and YouTube again? Here is the relevant extract from the actual judgement.

Note: this is not the same as saying that because one lawsuit won on one principle last year that another one based on something else will be successful this year.
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And Instagram. Thanks for the screenshot! Simon said it's a no brainer to be on the lawsuit but I want to figure the things out befor I'm down for it as I'm not that rich to aford this amount.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Interesting update. During the final week, 767 cases representing 1477 individual applicants were scheduled for interview. On a simplistic 4 week month, that’s equivalent to nearly 6000 selectees a month. That’s already an increase on “normal“ non pandemic DV issuance (4500-5000 visas a month). Kind of undercuts the argument about being slow? i know they’ve been slow till now but maybe this is just finally representing the scheduling machine returning to normal. Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks.
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What you did here is an equivalent of fitting a linear trend to a single point of data (last known in this case). Regardless of whether it's KCC performance, stock price or any other timeseries, it just doesn't work like that.
BTW, CEAC data suggests that next data point in the series (5/7-13) is ~60.
 
Xarthisius said:
What you did here is an equivalent of fitting a linear trend to a single point of data (last known in this case). Regardless of whether it's KCC performance, stock price or any other timeseries, it just doesn't work like that.
BTW, CEAC data suggests that next data point in the series (5/7-13) is ~60.
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That’s why I said it’s a simplistic analysis and let’s wait for the next few weeks’ data. It IS a huge change to prior data and just ignoring it doesn’t make sense either.
 
SusieQQQ said:
That’s why I said it’s a simplistic analysis and let’s wait for the next few weeks’ data. It IS a huge change to prior data and just ignoring it doesn’t make sense either.
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It's almost exactly the same as their performance on 3/5-11.
Also using simplistic toy model is fine, but I think it would be fair if it was disclaimed with the fact that it gives equal probability to scenarios like: KCC gives no visas or KCC gives all the remaining visas next week. Why limit yourself to slope = 0 if you have so many possibilities?
 
SusieQQQ said:
Yeah, I don’t really know that they can challenge the decision of DoS as to which visas to prioritize, but that’s for the judge to decide. “Too slow“ also seems subjective, even last year’s judgement said it could not be normal issuance. Tbh I think a lot of this is just piggybacking on a different situation but to paraphrase what you said before, it gives you small chance vs potentially an even smaller chance so for those who can why not.

Btw, any idea when or if we‘ll find out if the reserved visas from last year will actually be issued?
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KCC clearly is not doing enough to justify their progress. However, the prioritization means they already have more ready for scheduling cases than they can possibly interview, even at regular pace, let alone current pace. The damage has been done - and it was done based on the "no visa" policy which was found (5 times) to be unlawful. So - Gov will say they can't do more because of Covid - but they caused the delays, and Mehta last year called that out to preserve the 9095. So - if he decides DV2020 visas can be issued, it will be a slam dunk to get the same for DV2021.

Mehta hasn't set himself any timeline. At one point he wanted to roll the DV2020 decision into the July 13 DV2021 hearing - and that may happen although the lawyers have responded to that and asked for an earlier decision.
 
puda said:
Kuck and Morrison have two different approaches regarding this but it's generally the same strategy. (Morrison mentioned it during a chat this week) I think Morrison actually has a strategy (legal argument) at this point but I haven't looked too closely either to be honest. I do agree with Simon and Susie that the chances are small but bigger than just hoping for the best. (Especially if you are in a country with thousands of winners. In that case, I don't think much can be done anyways) Again, I think you have a much higher chance if you are from a country with a low number of winners AND a consulate not dealing with too many DV cases.

Also, a lot of us have said this probably 10x by now but what worked last year doesn't mean that it will work this year!

And unless I am wrong, according to latest data from the government, things have been ramping up a bit this month: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vyHZC8qIv_PJZoAZoI2U0uu5jV-H9dRZ/view (Page 3) The issuance of Green Cards remains incredibly low, unfortunately.
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No they did not ramp up.

There was a few days where CEAC was blocked (most likely because of DV2022 being loaded). So when we got updates it was 2NLs from early and late May. The early May were April 2NLs. So - KCC are on nothing like fast enough pace.
 
Could someone tell me please - once we receive an interview invitation - does it say directly on the website « In Transit » instead of your file is at « KCC »? This is in case I miss an email for interview, maybe it will visible in the system (where we sent DS260). Thanks
 
Erika_erika said:
Could someone tell me please - once we receive an interview invitation - does it say directly on the website « In Transit » instead of your file is at « KCC »? This is in case I miss an email for interview, maybe it will visible in the system (where we sent DS260). Thanks
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The email only tells you there is an update to the ESC page. So you may as well check the ESC page for an update as the indirect CEAC status page.
 
Erika_erika said:
Could someone tell me please - once we receive an interview invitation - does it say directly on the website « In Transit » instead of your file is at « KCC »? This is in case I miss an email for interview, maybe it will visible in the system (where we sent DS260). Thanks
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Yes and No both can happen, If your status changes to Transit or you receive the email to check for updates it means you got 2nl.
Is your status changed to In Transit?
 
Thank you very much for reply.
I checked ESC page, it says as before « you have been randomly selected for further processing of dv», though I noticed at the very bottom where there is name of applicant, case number - there is also Post for interview Abu-Dhabi. Maybe it’s automatically updated once you send your DS 260, though before I don’t remember it was written Post.

CEAC page says the same - KCC. Hopefully after the visa bulletin this month we can see some interview invitations. Thank you.
 
Erika_erika said:
Thank you very much for reply.
I checked ESC page, it says as before « you have been randomly selected for further processing of dv», though I noticed at the very bottom where there is name of applicant, case number - there is also Post for interview Abu-Dhabi. Maybe it’s automatically updated once you send your DS 260, though before I don’t remember it was written Post.

CEAC page says the same - KCC. Hopefully after the visa bulletin this month we can see some interview invitations. Thank you.
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The only place your interview letter will be is on the ESC page.
 
puda said:
There is a hearing in July but it's not the final one and the judge is in no hurry (dealing with much more important cases atm) so I would not expect something soon. Which means that DV2021 is probably going to run into the same issue. It's going to be something...
Click to expand...

Britsimon said:
KCC clearly is not doing enough to justify their progress. However, the prioritization means they already have more ready for scheduling cases than they can possibly interview, even at regular pace, let alone current pace. The damage has been done - and it was done based on the "no visa" policy which was found (5 times) to be unlawful. So - Gov will say they can't do more because of Covid - but they caused the delays, and Mehta last year called that out to preserve the 9095. So - if he decides DV2020 visas can be issued, it will be a slam dunk to get the same for DV2021.

Mehta hasn't set himself any timeline. At one point he wanted to roll the DV2020 decision into the July 13 DV2021 hearing - and that may happen although the lawyers have responded to that and asked for an earlier decision.
Click to expand...
Exactly. No one can deny that there was damage done on DV21 selectees.
Personally, I feel that some kind of positive outcome will result from lawsuits. At least for named plaintiffs.
 
SusieQQQ said:
The email only tells you there is an update to the ESC page. So you may as well check the ESC page for an update as the indirect CEAC status page.
Click to expand...
And we have to use the same ESC site we used to consult the lottery results, right?
SusieQQQ said:
The email only tells you there is an update to the ESC page. So you may as well check the ESC page for an update as the indirect CEAC status page.
Click to expand...
 
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