DV 2018 All Selectees

[SusieQQQ]

Your understanding is correct, although theoretically they could hit a limit by incorrect calculation. So - the warnings should be taken seriously to make certain you attend the interview with all documents ready, in order to avoid AP delays.

We’ve definitely seen it happen with countries before - both Iran and Bangladesh applicants had their interviews cancelled when they ran out of visas in the applicable years -no reason it couldn’t happen overall either. There are presumably some calculations of denials & no-shows they use when allocating visa numbers and if those are wrong, visas could run out. The fact that they keep warning people about this is an important sign, I’d think?

 

[Britsimon]

We’ve definitely seen it happen with countries before - both Iran and Bangladesh applicants had their interviews cancelled when they ran out of visas in the applicable years -no reason it couldn’t happen overall either. There are presumably some calculations of denials & no-shows they use when allocating visa numbers and if those are wrong, visas could run out. The fact that they keep warning people about this is an important sign, I’d think?

Yes, we have seen those before, although the difference in those cases was a country limit being hit. These warnings are about regional quotas. That is a big difference, IMHO. But it is true that this is not a precise science.

Regarding calculations of denials and no shows - no - those should not be a factor. Each CP case gets an allocated visa slot (including one for each known derivative). They are not assuming safety level based on a certain level of predicted denials and no shows. That assumption has been soundly demonstrated this year by AF region - which is why the retrogression happened and widely confirmed by communications.

 

[funwithflag]

I was registered on this website before but the visas I had gotten before were non-immigrant visas..

oh I see (the purple page vs the green page right ?) - Well I am in the US too and with my L1 I think I was in the NIV case (I don't remember correctly but I am pretty that was the case) when I applied few years ago.
Now I recreated an account with the IV green page so I hope all will be fine...

 

[SusieQQQ]

Yes, we have seen those before, although the difference in those cases was a country limit being hit. These warnings are about regional quotas. That is a big difference, IMHO. But it is true that this is not a precise science.

Regarding calculations of denials and no shows - no - those should not be a factor. Each CP case gets an allocated visa slot (including one for each known derivative). They are not assuming safety level based on a certain level of predicted denials and no shows. That assumption has been soundly demonstrated this year by AF region - which is why the retrogression happened and widely confirmed by communications.

But wouldn’t a similar argument have been in place for the country limits, ie they knew in advance what the quota was and shouldn’t have scheduled interviews with allocated visas beyond that number? There must be something at play that means you hit the limit with still-scheduled interviews, and surely it can’t be surprise derivatives accounting for all of that, a full month or so before FY end as happened with the country limits?

 

[Britsimon]

But wouldn’t a similar argument have been in place for the country limits, ie they knew in advance what the quota was and shouldn’t have scheduled interviews with allocated visas beyond that number? There must be something at play that means you hit the limit with still-scheduled interviews, and surely it can’t be surprise derivatives accounting for all of that, a full month or so before FY end as happened with the country limits?

No - I really think it's fundamentally different. The 7% cap is a cap that can "sneak up" on VO/KCC. It's after the fact (so they would add additional derivatives drawing from the regional pool). The regional cap is proactively managed, meaning a case scheduled in September where a new derivative suddenly appeared may have visas for some of the family - not all. We have seen that happen before.

 

[SusieQQQ]

No - I really think it's fundamentally different. The 7% cap is a cap that can "sneak up" on VO/KCC. It's after the fact (so they would add additional derivatives drawing from the regional pool). The regional cap is proactively managed, meaning a case scheduled in September where a new derivative suddenly appeared may have visas for some of the family - not all. We have seen that happen before.

It’s happend for scheduled derivatives too though, there was a case here (or was it on VJ?) before where the parents got visas but not their 2 kids because they ran out - the kids were both on the original entry. I don’t recall any other details though.

 

[Sm1smom]

It’s happend for scheduled derivatives too though, there was a case here (or was it on VJ?) before where the parents got visas but not their 2 kids because they ran out - the kids were both on the original entry. I don’t recall any other details though.

Yeah, I remember that case - it was this forum.

 

[Britsimon]

It’s happend for scheduled derivatives too though, there was a case here (or was it on VJ?) before where the parents got visas but not their 2 kids because they ran out - the kids were both on the original entry. I don’t recall any other details though.

Yes I remember that too - but I think there was some reason why the kids weren't allocated. I think we all remember that case as it seemed very unfortunate. Hard one to search for though to try and be clear of the details. However the principle of CP cases being allocated a visa slot is not in doubt, and there are many strings of evidence that back up the theory (including recent comments from the embassies). For countries that hit the limit - my suggestion is that the case would be pre-allocated (i.e. in July), but that the 7% cap would be enforced later (August/September) as visas were being issued.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Yes I remember that too - but I think there was some reason why the kids weren't allocated. I think we all remember that case as it seemed very unfortunate. Hard one to search for though to try and be clear of the details. However the principle of CP cases being allocated a visa slot is not in doubt, and there are many strings of evidence that back up the theory (including recent comments from the embassies). For countries that hit the limit - my suggestion is that the case would be pre-allocated (i.e. in July), but that the 7% cap would be enforced later (August/September) as visas were being issued.

This is the thread. I haven’t re-read the whole thing, but first post clearly states kids were on the application and didn’t get visas because they ran out. “Although our application was for whole family (2 parents and two minor children), we got information from the Embassy that because of the deficiency of visas for 2014 they can issue us only two visas (for me and my wife).”

https://forums.immigration.com/threads/please-help-for-my-minor-children.322959/#post-2365958

 

[Lezraf]

Hi Lezraf,

I am from France as well, Interview scheduled the 1st week of September, I haven't received this email, when did you get it?
Please also share your interview experience in Paris

Thanks

a couple of days ago, you'll receive it soon...feel free to contact me for any further information !

 

[Lezraf]

As my interview is imminent, do you have some advice for me ? I prepared all the required documents + pictures + medicals to avoid the AP...

 

[Britsimon]

This is the thread. I haven’t re-read the whole thing, but first post clearly states kids were on the application and didn’t get visas because they ran out. “Although our application was for whole family (2 parents and two minor children), we got information from the Embassy that because of the deficiency of visas for 2014 they can issue us only two visas (for me and my wife).”

https://forums.immigration.com/threads/please-help-for-my-minor-children.322959/#post-2365958

Wow, well done for finding it. There was something oddball about it - I think he emailed/PM'd me. Can't quite remember - but really - it made no sense at the time - and less so now knowing what we know.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Wow, well done for finding it. There was something oddball about it - I think he emailed/PM'd me. Can't quite remember - but really - it made no sense at the time - and less so now knowing what we know.

Oh, he posted in another thread as well - they had been told in August there were no more visas available then got a call right near the end of September to say that they could get 2 but not 4 - this was your response below. So it seems maybe similar to this year when some people have been told to wait and see what becomes available in September? (Although his case seems to be just a visa availability issue, no AP complications involved)

Countries don't have a quota as such, so Macedonia is no different. There is a supposedly a global limit of 50,000 - but we are already well above that limit, (drawing from an allowance set aside for another program) - so that means it is impossible for us to say how many are left.

Will you please keep us informed. There was a case similar to yours (a selectee told there was only one visa for him, not his new bride). IN that case, they both got the visas. I hope the same happens for you.

 

[Britsimon]

Oh, he posted in another thread as well - they had been told in August there were no more visas available then got a call right near the end of September to say that they could get 2 but not 4 - this was your response below. So it seems maybe similar to this year when some people have been told to wait and see what becomes available in September? (Although his case seems to be just a visa availability issue, no AP complications involved)

Countries don't have a quota as such, so Macedonia is no different. There is a supposedly a global limit of 50,000 - but we are already well above that limit, (drawing from an allowance set aside for another program) - so that means it is impossible for us to say how many are left.

Will you please keep us informed. There was a case similar to yours (a selectee told there was only one visa for him, not his new bride). IN that case, they both got the visas. I hope the same happens for you.

OK - so he must have been late in submitting or something - so yeah - it makes sense that they said they only had a couple of visas (better than nothing, perhaps). Basically, they had missed out in July. DV2014 did get kinda hectic at the end.

The thing about this year for AF is that they had a LARGE number of interviews scheduled in August (about 5000 selectees). Since they allocate a visa for each person that is 5000 visas they "expect" to issue - although we know that at least 1000 to 2000 of those visas will not be used (no shows, denials, AP). They had made the region current, but it was obvious that there was no time to schedule all the interviews they needed - and even if they did, the pre-allocation procedure was going to work against them. So - they painted themselves into a corner and retrogressed. However, AF will probably not fill its quota, and the unused visas from August will be available in September. So - for AF - I think there will be some visas available in September.

AS is underfilled, so same story there - there should not be a problem for clearing AP or AOS cases.

EU won't be so easy, for a couple of reasons. The first reason it is very close to the quota already (17475 issued in CEAC) - and above the quota if we look at quota as proportional to the other regions, and secondly, there are not many interviews in August, and less denials/no shows - so less unused visas.

 

[Lezraf]

is it possible that after the embassy tell you you'll recieve your visa within 2 weeks you are on AP on the website of statuts ?

 

[SusieQQQ]

is it possible that after the embassy tell you you'll recieve your visa within 2 weeks you are on AP on the website of statuts ?

Yes
Sometimes they intend to approve and then find something in the post-interview checks that delays it

 

[Lezraf]

thank you !! what do yo mean by post interview chekcs ?

 

[Lezraf]

Many people are in the same situation, and some of them are saying that AP is a normal status just after the interview before "issued"

 

[Britsimon]

Many people are in the same situation, and some of them are saying that AP is a normal status just after the interview before "issued"

That is correct in many cases - but that condition only lasts a (business) day or two. If the AP continues for longer than that, then it is true AP.

 

[Lezraf]

That is correct in many cases - but that condition only lasts a (business) day or two. If the AP continues for longer than that, then it is true AP.

thank you Brit!!I got information from someone who got his interview in Paris and he told me it can last between 2 and 10 days. AP can refer to the time taken by the embassy for preparing the packet and also stamping the passport with a visa stamp.