Section 203(c)(1)(E)(iv) of the Immigration and Nationality Act reads
[...] excess visa numbers shall be made available to natives [...] of the other regions in proportion to the percentages [...]
The website of the Federal Register explains that "shall" is, indeed, an obligation. For the sake of clarity, they recommend using the word "must" instead. I comply: The Visa Office must redistribute unused Asian visa numbers, and I expect them to kick off the bonanza on June 8th. The section also gives pretty clear instruction on how this has to be done. Let's see what that means for the over selected regions (EU, OC and SA).
Assumptions/Remarks
The Asian quota of 15.716% translates into 8565 visa numbers.
At the end of the fiscal year Asia could have some 3450+250+1700 = 5400 issued visas. Taking into account the late year loss, I suggest that 5500 visa numbers might remain in Asia, and I will assume that 3150 visa numbers are up for grabs.
How many does OC get?
Since the redistribution is "in proportion to the quotas," the visa number pool of each participating region appreciates at the same rate, and we can look at the combined pool EU+SA+OC, which has a quota of 41.184% or 22,445 visa numbers.
The transferred visa numbers increase the pool and therefore the regional quotas by 3150/22445 = 14%.
In Oceania that could translate directly into an equal increase of the cutoff. The currently favored window 1450-1500 would be lifted to 1650-1710. 2018OC1678 would still be touch and go, but hope? Absolutely.
Disclaimer
The scenario is clearly optimistic. Still, I consider DV-2018 a perfect showcase for the above provision in 203(c). We've never had such an ideal opportunity to "test" the law, and some folks don't believe in it.
[...] excess visa numbers shall be made available to natives [...] of the other regions in proportion to the percentages [...]
The website of the Federal Register explains that "shall" is, indeed, an obligation. For the sake of clarity, they recommend using the word "must" instead. I comply: The Visa Office must redistribute unused Asian visa numbers, and I expect them to kick off the bonanza on June 8th. The section also gives pretty clear instruction on how this has to be done. Let's see what that means for the over selected regions (EU, OC and SA).
Assumptions/Remarks
- Africa doesn't partake, neither as recipient nor as donor. This simplifies the calculation but seems reasonable. The region's selection is about the right size.
- North America gains less then 10 visa numbers, so I don't include it in the equation.
- NACARA is way less than 1000. I will work with 54.500 available visa numbers globally.
The Asian quota of 15.716% translates into 8565 visa numbers.
At the end of the fiscal year Asia could have some 3450+250+1700 = 5400 issued visas. Taking into account the late year loss, I suggest that 5500 visa numbers might remain in Asia, and I will assume that 3150 visa numbers are up for grabs.
How many does OC get?
Since the redistribution is "in proportion to the quotas," the visa number pool of each participating region appreciates at the same rate, and we can look at the combined pool EU+SA+OC, which has a quota of 41.184% or 22,445 visa numbers.
The transferred visa numbers increase the pool and therefore the regional quotas by 3150/22445 = 14%.
In Oceania that could translate directly into an equal increase of the cutoff. The currently favored window 1450-1500 would be lifted to 1650-1710. 2018OC1678 would still be touch and go, but hope? Absolutely.
Disclaimer
The scenario is clearly optimistic. Still, I consider DV-2018 a perfect showcase for the above provision in 203(c). We've never had such an ideal opportunity to "test" the law, and some folks don't believe in it.